In his Christmas/New Year message, President Umaru Yar?Adua said this was the year when he would deliver on his election promises. If I was superstitious, I would simply dismiss the speech. This is partly because I wrote the first draft of this article on Sunday, January 4, 2009, or 4-1-9, for short. It doesn't give you much hope or comfort to evaluate the promises of a non-performer on a date like that.
But my skepticism is not only a matter of numerological coincidence. At almost this same time two years ago, Yar'Adua promised the moon on a stick; but two years down the road, he has left many wondering how the heck we ended up with him in the saddle.
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In a message delivered on his behalf by the then Minister of Information and Communications, John Odey, on Christmas Day 2007, Yar'Adua said, ?I assure Nigerians that we will do our very best to ensure that more visible and significant progress is made toward the fulfillment of their hopes for a better country in the coming year.? He promised that, ?The Federal Government will intensify its efforts at bringing about more visible and far reaching improvements in the standard of living of the people.?
If Yar'Adua made this promise at a time when the price of crude oil was about $140 per barrel and yet failed miserably to deliver on it, why should we trust him to keep his word now that crude oil is selling below the budget benchmark price for the fiscal year? One could, of course, argue that it was not entirely his fault. The continued violence in the Niger Delta and the lingering court dispute over his election could have undermined his good intentions. It is also very likely that because of his provincial background, he was out of his depth in his new office and therefore when he promised heaven and earth seven months after coming to office, he didn't exactly know what he was saying. He just had to same something.
So, will he deliver in 2009, now that he has grown on the job and has been confirmed in office? Should we trust him to keep his latest promise to fix power, repair the roads, clean up NNPC, guarantee security, and introduce lasting land and political reforms? The key to the answer is more in what Yar'Adua didn't say than in what he said. Nowhere in Yar?Adua?s reported message did he say a word about the fight against corruption. Not that his word on corruption would have carried much weight under the present circumstances.
How can it when a number of the influential chief priests at Aso Rock's shrine are either fugitives from the law or some of the most corrupt politicians in town? How can any promise to fight corruption make sense when only a few weeks ago, the President bestowed the Order of the Federal Republic (OFR) on the Deputy Chair (North West) of the PDP Mohammed Haliru Bello ? A man , named as one of the recipients of Siemen's $12.7m bribe to top Nigerian officials? This same Bello, who was Minister of Communications under Obasanjo, blighted in Siemen's bribe list, was among those honoured last December by Yar'Adua. If that was a ghastly movie, it could have been titled Corruption Crowned. But sadly, it was for real.
It was very convenient for the President to make promises about meeting Johnnie Walker half way down the road because he knew that if he had said anything about fighting corruption, his own words would have condemned him.
The situation was similar in 2007. At the time he was promising the country a rosy 2008, executioners had lined up to finish off Nuhu Ribadu and bury the EFCC. They have done such an excellent job of it now, that while the President feigns ignorance, crooks are making deals with the EFCC and asking for change. The history of this country has shown that once a government is perceived to be corrupt or tolerant of corruption, that government is finished, however noble its intentions for other areas of the national life. In spite of former President Olusegun Obasanjo's holier-than-thou posture, the moment he started his monkey business with Corporate Nigeria, shares in Transcorp and numerous other lesser known shenanigans, everything else went downhill. The story has been the same from Tafawa Balewa to Shehu Shagari and all the military regimes in-between; once the public perceives that officials are gorging themselves at the trough without recourse, as is now the case, then God save the government from going to seed.
Can Yar'Adua make up for lost time? He can, but not whilst he is surrounded by an attorney general and minister of justice who has outlived his usefulness, an EFCC chairperson held captive by sacred cows, corrupt former governors enjoying state protection from justice, and marabouts holed up in the Ministry of Defence (Defence House).
Can Yar'Adua deliver in 2009? He can, but declining revenues from oil will pose a major challenge. On top of that, his health, the total lack of preparation for the last nearly two years, and a party machinery that would get increasingly treacherous will test his will. The godfathers in the ruling party will soon begin to ask themselves whether this candidate should stand re-election in 2011. Sadly for the President, and for the country too , his incompetence so far will be used as a bargaining chip by powerful party officials and interest groups, especially governors, who would want him to look the other way while they help themselves to the till in preparation for the next major electoral battle.
Can he deliver in 2009? He is banking on a "revamped" executive arm and a "systematic planning process" to get the job done. The truth is that he cannot be losing the war on corruption and yet expect to make progress in other areas. But since Yar?Adua insists that he will be delivered of his 20-month-old pregnancy this year, it?s only fair to give him a chance. Another December is not as long as it seems.
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