Then from nowhere (‘Nowhere?’ Ok, from Cambridge-Harvard wherever), arose this young, brilliant and determined professor of Economics who like a modern-day John the Baptist came with this slogan: “Repent! (oops! Sorry,) Reform!! Reform for the kingdom of Soludo is at hand!!!” and before you can hit the ‘R’ in reform, the Nigerian banking industry was transformed. ‘Recapitalization’ and ‘Consolidation’ became the popular words in Naija’s financial circles. The banking sector of Naija became, within the space of two years, the most active sector of our economy. In the stock market, banking shares held sway (and still does), in the area of employment, dat one no even need Federal Office of Statistics data, all of us know say na banks dey employ pass . Suffice to say under Soludo, our banking system has never had it so good. Their profits dey rise, their shares dey appreciate, branches dey spring up everywhere for every bank (except for ETB, no offence oh!) and the one wey concern us youths pass, dem they employ like fire!
A lot of factors dey responsible for the mass employment of hitherto jobless Naija graduates (and even non-graduates!) by the Soludo-transformed banks. Chief amongst these includes the positive impact of the Soludo Reforms, the subsequent consolidation/merger of banks which increased their profitability, the development of Naija’s capital market post-banking reforms (all hail Ndidi Onyuike!),higher profitability engendered by greater trust by Naijans in their banking system leading to expansion of operational scope (too much Grammar?) among other micro/macro economic reasons. All the grammar aside, the bottom line be say, na banks come be, in the aftermath of the reforms, the main hope of Naija’s youths for employment. I lie?
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Joy has a fragile body and it can break when least expected. Rosy so far (or so they tell us) has been the picture for our economy powered by the ‘2 HPs’ (Horse Powers) of Oil and a stable financial system. But there’s trouble in The horizon (“horizon? We dey stare am for eyes!”) in the form of the global economic meltdown. Like an evil typhoon, it has thus far made nonsense of the much-touted “stable” economies of developed countries like Britain, Canada, France, Germany and wait for it, the ‘Mighty’ United State of America! This economic hurricane has swept away the financial pillars holding the economies of the above countries leaving them staggering like inebriated (open your dictionary!) giants. Thus far, the Nigerian economy has weathered the storm of the ‘meltdown’ but the question wey dey be say, for how long? At various forum, Charles Soludo has consistently reiterated his belief that our economy will be unaffected by the meltdown but worrying signals just dey crop up everyday wey no dey make person confident at all! Like for now, our naira is daily depreciating against the already ’recession-depreciated’ US Dollar and Pound sterling (yahoo boys! Una dey hear?), there’s panic in our hitherto ‘Calm and Booming’ capital market and the very recent indictment of Zenith Bank Plc for money laundering no just portend well for our economy’s immediate future and dis na economy wey be say na the financial sector (majorly the commercial banks) dey drive oh!
My question for Soludo, Mansur Mukhtar, Ndidi Onyuike Okereke and other economic stakeholders for Naija is these: if truly the world is a ‘Global Village’, do they really believe we can be insulated from the effects of the ongoing ‘global’ economic meltdown? If their answer is yes, how? I mean, make you check am, if ’advanced’ capitalist economies like the US of A and the UK are still reeling from the effect of this economic ’tsunami’, what hope for an economy like ours that’s still in the ‘primitive’ stage of capitalist development? What if the permutations of our economic planners were to go wrong by whatever margin and our worst nightmare come true, then undoubtedly the hardest hit sector of our economy will be the financial sector (banks!) and just like the case of Fannie Mae and Northern Rock in the US and UK respectively, na the commercial financial institutions go suffer pass. And unlike in the above countries, ‘Bailout’ no go dey oh! (From Yar’adua? Forget it).
Now let see the worst case scenario for Naija banks: to make ends meet (in terms of depositors’ obligations); they ’ll be forced to ‘Right size’ (na euphemism for Layoff be dat) their workforce, panic withdrawals go dey, their shares go crash for stock market, some of their ‘unprofitable branches‘ go gats close amongst other Right sizing measures. And who do you think will be given the boots in the Right Sizing exercises? Your can bet your last valueless naira it will not be the “big boys” of the industry (those who take home #3 million monthly), na the hustling ‘slaves’ wey dem dey pay tops #120,000 monthly, those who came into bank employment post-Soludo reforms.
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Now in the light of the above still hypothetical ‘scenario’, I dey use this forum to appeal to Naija youths to shift attention from banks for their employment needs. For now. Fine, it pays (pun intended) to work in a bank now but it only pays because we are being employed. What if (God forbid sha), these global economic recession and the whole whatchamacallit with our Naira is to knock off the train of The Soludo reforms off-track and the commercial banks, the beautiful brides of the reforms and the current darling of naija’s teeming unemployed youths, was to falter? How we go do? To be forewarned they say is to be ... (yeah, you got it right,) forearmed.
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