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Obasanjo and Atiku: Dance of the witches

January 26, 2009

 You may dislike the politics of the Governor of Osun State, Olagunsoye Oyinlola, but you can hardly ignore his wit. He is a damn good local breed, seasoned with the wisdom, if not the guile, of the proverbial tortoise. Oyinlola has been in the news since last week as the finger of the unseen hands that arranged the controversial meeting between former President Olusegun Obasanjo and his former deputy Atiku Abubakar. When journalists approached the governor for his comments after the meeting, he said it was a dance of the witches and only the brave could stick around to witness it.

A few days later while the dust kicked up by the meeting was yet to settle, Oyinlola was again at his witty best. He told journalists in Abuja that while he didn’t see anything wrong with the meeting his role was that of a matchmaker. According to him, only a foolish matchmaker brings the bride and groom together and sticks around.


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What Oyinlola’s taciturnity refused to give away, however, Abubakar’s naivety abundantly revealed. His obvious embarrassment and lack of clarity while answering questions from journalists and the uncharacteristic lack of candour in the press statement issued by his campaign organisation showed a man that had put his foot in his mouth. It’s not about his freedom of movement; he can go wherever he chooses. It’s not about his freedom of association either; he can choose his friends.
The point is Abubakar is in denial of his deepest, instinctive craving: to become the country’s next president, as soon as possible – and at all costs. This is the heart of the matter.

For all his denials and laborious explanations, what his seducers (Oyinlola just happened to be one of them) did was to ensnare him in his own lust for power. The pressure has been on for a long time now. I understand that some governors (and traditional rulers), who know Abubakar’s weakness, have been trying to persuade him to mend fences with his boss since last year. Two years to the next general election might seem like a long time, but politicians know too well the value of building bridges early. Anyone who truly wants to be the country’s next president must begin now to work at it. Also, politicians generally live and die by the Palmerstonian maxim – no permanent foes, no permanent friends; only permanent interests.

I am told that the bury-the-hatchet meeting between Abubakar and Obasanjo was originally planned to hold during the last Sallah holiday in December. Yet, we know that it will require more than the regular graveyard to bury the hatchet between the two men. Obasanjo not only swore that Abubakar will not succeed him as president; he grounded his businesses, damaged his associates, tarnished his image and ran the man out of town. But since you can’t keep a man in the mud without staying there with him, Obasanjo himself could not escape the mudslinging. Whether it was the PTDF scandal, women, or Siemens, both P and VP were right in it, up to the ear. So, it was in their mutual interest to bury the hatchet?

Both men gave it a try for completely different reasons. For Obasanjo there was nothing to be lost: he has been military head of state once and civilian president for two terms. He has been accused of every malfeasance under the sun, including sleeping with his son’s wife. For Abubakar there was everything to be gained: being No 2 is nothing to be compared to being No 1. Forget the nonsense that the meeting was in the interest of the nation and the comparison with Mandela’s role in South Africa and Obama’s role in the US post-November 4. Neither Mandela nor Obama betrayed their political parties for the expedience of power, which was precisely what Abubakar did. He needed the meeting more than Obasanjo and his seducers knew it. I was told, however, that for some reasons, the December Sallah meeting could not hold. It was rescheduled for January 14. Again, it could not hold. But the puppeteers – the chief puppeteer of one of the groups being General Ibrahim Babangida – refused to give up. If Abubakar had spared a morsel’s worth of thought, he might have remembered that it was this same evil genius who entangled him in a discussion about talking Obasanjo out of a second term in 2003. The word later reached Obasanjo’s ear and the rest is history. But since Abubakar has learnt nothing and forgotten nothing, history would yet again make mincemeat of him.

They kept up the pressure on him until last week when he caved in, leaving his allies confused and bewildered. The strategies of the contending groups may be different, but the goal is to discredit all likely opposition and clear the way for the emergence of a strong alternative candidate to President Umaru Yar’Adua.

Abubakar has, yet again, sold himself cheap. In spite of all protestations to the contrary his visit to Obasanjo will damage him for a long, long time to come. In his present condition, he is neither serviceable to the ruling party, the PDP, nor worthy of the trust of his own party, the AC. I am told that he didn’t expect to find the press waiting at the door after the meeting in Abeokuta; that he believed it was going to be a very private meeting – like the visit of the animals to the sick lion? I laugh.

Obasanjo, the scourge of Afenifere, the liquidator of the Alliance for Democracy, the nemesis of South West governors and the godfather of do-or-die politics, has not changed one bit. His serial conquest of Abubakar has left only two immediate beneficiaries in the witches’ coven – Babangida and himself. Abubakar has hung his party out to dry. Where is Yar’Adua in all this? Forget Michael Aondoakaa: The answer is blowing in the wind.

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