February 17, 2009
Look carefully and the answer could be yes that the politicians of northern extraction either for genuine or selfish reasons are deeply disgruntled with the manner President Umaru Yar’adua had piloted the affairs of this nation since May 2007 and are already involved in what could best be described as the “great gamble” to replace him come 2011. Interestingly, this scheme is even hotter right inside his own ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
Recent developments have shown that contrary to the impression of absolute unity painted by the PDP, there are serious cleavages that have produced four strong opposing factions in the party.
There are various contending forces from the north both within and outside the PDP that are already working hard to scheme out Yar’adua come 2011. The party itself has been fractured along five major camps. The fulcrums of the divided house hinge on Yar’adua himself, Obasanjo, Adamu Ciroma, Babangida, and the Action Congress strongman Atiku Abubakar who is still very strong in influence within the PDP.
Frankly assessing the contending forces, nobody would be in doubt that while some of them are really serious some are mere jokers who may be playing the spoilers’ role.
Adamau Ciroma and Obasanjo are at best for now invalids in the politics of deciding the next candidate from the north although they could play very serious spoilers’ role.
Interestingly, Gen Ibrahim Babangida in his usual maradona style has opted to leave his decision to contest the 2011 presidential election to speculations.
The only tangible comment he has made so far on his ambition was when in response to a question on whether he would contest the 2011 presidency, on a television talk show on February 4, he said, “Under what circumstances? What you should consider is that I am not getting younger. I am an old man.”
This comment has been harped by opposing camps that has interpreted it to mean that Babangida would not be contesting the 2011 election under whatever guise.
Obviously, this would turn out to be a very big miscalculation as the tone of the Orji Uzo Kalu’s ongoing campaign for the 2011 presidency sounds more like a Babangida’s voice.
With the zoning arrangement that keeps the Presidency in the North till 2015, it therefore becomes very suspicious that Kalu from the South- East should be among the first to kick-off election campaigns and so far, he has been singing discordant tunes.
Kalu started by attacking and running down Atiku, Yar’adua, and every other person that is likely to contest the 2011 presidency in the north except Gen Ibrahim Babangida.
Recently Orji Kalu changed his mantra by recognizing Atiku as the likely PDP presidential candidate but vowed never to have anything to do with him politically. Haba Orji! Informed Nigerians are watching you play out the script written by your ‘benefactor’.
Also, there is an interesting ‘understanding’ between Babangida and Yar’adua with Tony Anenih on standby to fix things as payback for the lucrative NPA appointment. What that understanding is remains as closely guarded as everything about Babangida’s adventure into the arena of democratic politics.
Majority of the northern political elites see Babangida as more of a liability and not-too-good brand to market especially with the still fresh -in –mind June 12 saga and the subsequent death of both Abiola and Abacha in addition to the oil windfall scandal.
In the case of Atiku Abubakar, he has tactically re-launched himself with a very big bang by his recent reconciliatory visit to Obasanjo.
Supporters of former Vice-President have started bridge-building campaigns as they want him to contest the 2011 presidency. The Atiku political camp is particularly happy over the recent statement credited to Babangida, that he would not contest for the presidency come 2011 on the account of age. And with this, it is believe that a major hurdle on Atiku’s way within the PDP have been removed, thereby clearing the coast for him.
Atiku is believed to have all it takes to preside over the affairs of this country considering that among the existing contending forces, he is the only serious – minded presidential candidate with a detailed blueprint as policy document on how to move this nation forward on all facet of the economy including the Niger Delta.
It was from Atiku’s policy document that Yar’adua extracted the concept of a ministry for the Niger Delta but because of lack of originality, details of the workability of the policy were not available to the government and that produced the current confusion in the concept and take-off of the ministry even several months after its creation.
Although he still has some huddles to clear before being fully welcomed back to the PDP (that is if he decides to go back), Atiku for now looks as the best favoured and the most widely accepted both in the north and across the country.
Outside the PDP set up, Gen Buhari has again reared up his head in the quest by the north to replace Yar’adua and he is fast proving to be a factor in the 2011 equation though for now, he lacks clearly-defined platform and he seems not to be in a hurry to reach out for any form of ‘understanding’ with any known political platforms except his very strong talakawa support base.
As a Head of State, Gen Buhari showed some kind of pure military discipline in his short term rulership and he succeeded in forcing everybody to line up to the tenets of a disciplined society. But that was just where his achievements or rather records ended.
In politics, he seems to still be learning the games of a democratic dispensation where people’s (associates) opinions count more than the opinion of the commander-in-chief. Almost everybody that started with him in 2003 to actualize his presidential ambition had deserted him.
The general’s lieutenants in the 2007 presidential election are either playing on the sidelines or have outrightly decamped to the PDP. Their only reason has been that Buhari has refused to democratize and remained an autocrat who does not listen nor considers any other person’s view on any matter whether within the party- ANPP or at the national arena.
Although this may be a mere smear campaign from one of the contending blocks in the north, Buhari is widely perceived especially within the political circle as a tribal and religious warlord with seemingly impossible task of cutting across other sections of the country in his political calculations.
The incumbent President has a peculiar case in the 2011 race for Aso Rock though he still remains the sole determinant in the entire plot. Although President Yar’adua has done his best under the prevailing circumstances, his best has turned out not to be good enough to give the country the urgently needed dynamics in leadership. In actual fact, his best as President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria has become more or less an inertia in the wheels of progress of this nation.
In addition, the Yar’adua Presidency has obviously discredited the north and the process that selects leaders in that section of the country. The North may not want to gamble with their slot at the centre as failure by Ya’adua (as already being insinuated by other sections of the country) may on the long run translate to the failure of northern leadership to even march the south-west bravado as played by Gen Obasanjo between 1999 and 2007.
Against this background, majority of the political elites of northern extraction see those scheming for a second term for Yar’adua as being mischievous and against the general interests of not only the region but the entire country.
Meanwhile for the scheming against Yar’adua and all the alignments/realignments currently going on within the PDP to produce any tangible result, much haggling and some discretion will be needed as Yar’adua himself has not given any clear indication that he is ready to step aside and would not seek for a second term.
Agreed that President Umaru Yar’adua is a Nigerian like every other person and he is entitled to aspire for whatever position he likes the truth is that the ongoing campaign for a second term for the incumbent president shows signs of the “hands of Esau but the voice of Jacob.” This is because those involved know fully well that the President has very serious challenges that have greatly impeded or rather diminished his capacity to function as the man in the driving seat.
SENIOR FYNEFACE, ELELEWON STREET, GRA II PORT HARCOURT ([email protected])
Recent developments have shown that contrary to the impression of absolute unity painted by the PDP, there are serious cleavages that have produced four strong opposing factions in the party.
There are various contending forces from the north both within and outside the PDP that are already working hard to scheme out Yar’adua come 2011. The party itself has been fractured along five major camps. The fulcrums of the divided house hinge on Yar’adua himself, Obasanjo, Adamu Ciroma, Babangida, and the Action Congress strongman Atiku Abubakar who is still very strong in influence within the PDP.
Frankly assessing the contending forces, nobody would be in doubt that while some of them are really serious some are mere jokers who may be playing the spoilers’ role.
Adamau Ciroma and Obasanjo are at best for now invalids in the politics of deciding the next candidate from the north although they could play very serious spoilers’ role.
Interestingly, Gen Ibrahim Babangida in his usual maradona style has opted to leave his decision to contest the 2011 presidential election to speculations.
The only tangible comment he has made so far on his ambition was when in response to a question on whether he would contest the 2011 presidency, on a television talk show on February 4, he said, “Under what circumstances? What you should consider is that I am not getting younger. I am an old man.”
This comment has been harped by opposing camps that has interpreted it to mean that Babangida would not be contesting the 2011 election under whatever guise.
Obviously, this would turn out to be a very big miscalculation as the tone of the Orji Uzo Kalu’s ongoing campaign for the 2011 presidency sounds more like a Babangida’s voice.
With the zoning arrangement that keeps the Presidency in the North till 2015, it therefore becomes very suspicious that Kalu from the South- East should be among the first to kick-off election campaigns and so far, he has been singing discordant tunes.
Kalu started by attacking and running down Atiku, Yar’adua, and every other person that is likely to contest the 2011 presidency in the north except Gen Ibrahim Babangida.
Recently Orji Kalu changed his mantra by recognizing Atiku as the likely PDP presidential candidate but vowed never to have anything to do with him politically. Haba Orji! Informed Nigerians are watching you play out the script written by your ‘benefactor’.
Also, there is an interesting ‘understanding’ between Babangida and Yar’adua with Tony Anenih on standby to fix things as payback for the lucrative NPA appointment. What that understanding is remains as closely guarded as everything about Babangida’s adventure into the arena of democratic politics.
Majority of the northern political elites see Babangida as more of a liability and not-too-good brand to market especially with the still fresh -in –mind June 12 saga and the subsequent death of both Abiola and Abacha in addition to the oil windfall scandal.
In the case of Atiku Abubakar, he has tactically re-launched himself with a very big bang by his recent reconciliatory visit to Obasanjo.
Supporters of former Vice-President have started bridge-building campaigns as they want him to contest the 2011 presidency. The Atiku political camp is particularly happy over the recent statement credited to Babangida, that he would not contest for the presidency come 2011 on the account of age. And with this, it is believe that a major hurdle on Atiku’s way within the PDP have been removed, thereby clearing the coast for him.
Atiku is believed to have all it takes to preside over the affairs of this country considering that among the existing contending forces, he is the only serious – minded presidential candidate with a detailed blueprint as policy document on how to move this nation forward on all facet of the economy including the Niger Delta.
It was from Atiku’s policy document that Yar’adua extracted the concept of a ministry for the Niger Delta but because of lack of originality, details of the workability of the policy were not available to the government and that produced the current confusion in the concept and take-off of the ministry even several months after its creation.
Although he still has some huddles to clear before being fully welcomed back to the PDP (that is if he decides to go back), Atiku for now looks as the best favoured and the most widely accepted both in the north and across the country.
Outside the PDP set up, Gen Buhari has again reared up his head in the quest by the north to replace Yar’adua and he is fast proving to be a factor in the 2011 equation though for now, he lacks clearly-defined platform and he seems not to be in a hurry to reach out for any form of ‘understanding’ with any known political platforms except his very strong talakawa support base.
As a Head of State, Gen Buhari showed some kind of pure military discipline in his short term rulership and he succeeded in forcing everybody to line up to the tenets of a disciplined society. But that was just where his achievements or rather records ended.
In politics, he seems to still be learning the games of a democratic dispensation where people’s (associates) opinions count more than the opinion of the commander-in-chief. Almost everybody that started with him in 2003 to actualize his presidential ambition had deserted him.
The general’s lieutenants in the 2007 presidential election are either playing on the sidelines or have outrightly decamped to the PDP. Their only reason has been that Buhari has refused to democratize and remained an autocrat who does not listen nor considers any other person’s view on any matter whether within the party- ANPP or at the national arena.
Although this may be a mere smear campaign from one of the contending blocks in the north, Buhari is widely perceived especially within the political circle as a tribal and religious warlord with seemingly impossible task of cutting across other sections of the country in his political calculations.
The incumbent President has a peculiar case in the 2011 race for Aso Rock though he still remains the sole determinant in the entire plot. Although President Yar’adua has done his best under the prevailing circumstances, his best has turned out not to be good enough to give the country the urgently needed dynamics in leadership. In actual fact, his best as President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria has become more or less an inertia in the wheels of progress of this nation.
In addition, the Yar’adua Presidency has obviously discredited the north and the process that selects leaders in that section of the country. The North may not want to gamble with their slot at the centre as failure by Ya’adua (as already being insinuated by other sections of the country) may on the long run translate to the failure of northern leadership to even march the south-west bravado as played by Gen Obasanjo between 1999 and 2007.
Against this background, majority of the political elites of northern extraction see those scheming for a second term for Yar’adua as being mischievous and against the general interests of not only the region but the entire country.
Meanwhile for the scheming against Yar’adua and all the alignments/realignments currently going on within the PDP to produce any tangible result, much haggling and some discretion will be needed as Yar’adua himself has not given any clear indication that he is ready to step aside and would not seek for a second term.
Agreed that President Umaru Yar’adua is a Nigerian like every other person and he is entitled to aspire for whatever position he likes the truth is that the ongoing campaign for a second term for the incumbent president shows signs of the “hands of Esau but the voice of Jacob.” This is because those involved know fully well that the President has very serious challenges that have greatly impeded or rather diminished his capacity to function as the man in the driving seat.
SENIOR FYNEFACE, ELELEWON STREET, GRA II PORT HARCOURT ([email protected])
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