In all my adult years, including a few decades of studying, following and attempting to analyze political developments in Nigeria, I am beginning to believe I am yet to witness a period of heightened hope and expectation that an impending election will decide the destiny of this potentially great nation and resolve issues that have confounded some of the brightest minds that the country and Africa has produced. Despite the exaltations, proclamations, predictions and maybe, what I call sheer day-dreaming, I have tried to remain grounded in the way I view these developments.
I have tried to maintain my fidelity to my belief that I have seen this atmosphere of uncircumscribed, if not inordinate, expectations before. I have good memories of the worsening/degenerative effects one bad election in Nigeria had on the following. I remember very well the events surrounding the 1979, 1983, 1999, 2003 and 2007 elections.
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In anticipation of the 2011 elections, Nigerians are hoping, praying, fasting and predicting that the elections will witness an epiphany that will culminate in the election/revelation of that nation-builder-savior that we have all longed for in the last fifty years. A leader that will take the bulls by the horn and begin the arduous task of laying the foundation for the eventual emergence of a country that will live up to its true promise of serving as the hope, home and beacon for its citizens, the continent of Africa and the entire black race. I share in this vision but I also share in the belief that we may be putting the cart before the horse in expecting these dreams to materialize in 2011, given the current status quo.
Discounting for the unusual, I believe and expect the 2011 elections to be an uneventful affair. The elections will come and go and PDP will remain in power. Barack Obama will condemn the elections but will carry on with his job as the president of the United States. The rigging and the unbelievably creative acumen put into the despicable exercise will be unparalleled in the country’s history. Politicians that are worse than the current ones will emerge and we will be in search of new words to describe the extent of political corruption and moral/institutional decadence that will descend upon the country. Nigerians will be rudely awaken in terms of the creativity, innovativeness, brutality and violence that will go into rigging the 2011 elections; the very qualities in Nigerians that can otherwise make this country a leading force for good in the world.
My reasons for this pessimism are grounded in the facts of Nigerian history. Beginning in 1960, every election in this country has been worse than the one preceding it. Without bothering the reader with moribund facts about the elections of the post-independence-but-before-the-1966- Kaduna-Nzeogu led military coup and the counter coups that followed, only the insane can be re-assured of the possibility of free and fair elections in the current Nigeria. Way back in 1979, Shehu Shagari and the late Obafemi Awolowo fought over the meaning of 12-2/3 of 19 states and the validity of about 100,000 alleged fraudulent votes. Come the 1983 presidential elections, the NPN under the leadership of Umaru Dikko ensured that Shehu Shagari scored more votes than all the other candidates combined. Remember then there was this talk about a “mega party” that would produce a single candidate to confront the NPN behemoth? It never materialized and each party went into the election on its own. Currently, there is also this talk of another “mega-party” that will confront the PDP behemoth in the 2011 elections; but I dare to predict that it will go the same way for the same reasons as that of 1983: an alliance of incompatibles.
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Now, let us fast forward to the 1999 elections. The 1999 elections were neither free nor fair and all Nigerians knew it. In fact, Nigerians went into the elections knowing or expecting that it would neither be free nor fair but were ready to accept anything that would get rid of the khaki boys. But the same Nigerians also hoped that the Olusegun Obasanjo led government would effect changes to the electoral system that would materialize soon enough to make the 2003 elections an improvement over those of 1999. Nigeria is a country of eternal optimists, including myself. We now know that the 2003 elections were worse than the ones of 1999. Not only were they worse, the security agencies became involved in election rigging in a scale unprecedented in the history of the nation. The final arbiter of disputes in the country, the Supreme Court of Nigeria, found every excuse not to adjudicate on the election petition brought by Muhamaddu Buhari until the twilight days of Olusegun Obasanjo’s disputed term.
By the time the 2007 elections came around, the Olusegun Obasanjo who was the president of Nigeria was a far cry from the hard-hitting anti-corruption activist who was a board member of Transparency International, an international movement dedicated to fighting corruption around the world. Locally and internationally, there was widespread belief and some actual evidence of his involvement in the looting of the country’s treasuries. There was evidence of him shielding his corrupt aids from prosecution and a fuzzy definition of corruption that resonated more in the circles of his enemies.
Despite the above, Nigerians, for no valid empirical evidence, bought into Olusegun Obasanjo’s argument that Umaru Yar Adua would be the best president of Nigeria after himself. He single-handedly picked the laid-back governor as his successor. In order to sell his choice candidate as honest candidate, the president and his cohorts went to town and sold stories that Katsina state had N2 billion in its coffers and that the state had made the most gains in academic improvement. Results from secondary school results have since shown that Katsina state remains the last state in student performance in SSS examinations, the very examinations that ought to determine entrance into the country’s universities. Unfortunately, Nigeria remains a country where leaders are not required to account for their claims. I remember arguing in an article before the 2007 elections that governor Alamieyeseiga could have left N2 billion in Bayelsa’s coffers and still be found guilty of stealing billions from the state. In essence, my argument was that the money left behind in a state’s coffers does not provide any evidence of a governor’s honesty. Umaru Musa Yar Adua went on to contest the election and the rest is now history, including his alleged honesty.
The Supreme Court of Nigeria, a court that shamelessly buried its head in the sand like the ostrich in ignoring the imperative provision of the Electoral Act that all ballot papers shall be numbered and by asking the challenger to prove that INEC’s failure to number the ballot papers had adversely affected the outcome of the 2007 elections is still in place. It has yet to repent of its deliberate and selective self-inflicted and self-serving myopia that the use of the word “shall” in legal drafting implies an imperative and a condition precedent. In fact, the court is now more corrupt than it was in 2007 owing partly to its need to keep rendering decisions that will keep the Umaru Yar Adua cabal in place and thereby save the court from the judgment of the people. Maurice Iwu, the election referee who told all Nigerians that all votes from the 2007 elections will be captured electronically but ended up only capturing PDP’s forged election figures is still in place. Members of the armed forces and the other security agencies, including the Nigerian Police have become more corrupt than ever before owing to their roles in the emergence of the current government and the fear that a people-oriented change will put them in the docks defending themselves against charges from the Nigerian people.
Majority of Nigerians continue to believe or imply that God is an election rigger. They continue to believe that God does not care about the wishes of the people and that HE will put anyone in a position of leadership, notwithstanding the wishes of the people and the character of the person seeking leadership. Rather than see this belief as an abdication of their God-imposed responsibilities to challenge evil, they are content to see it as obedience to the will of God. Power supply, the basic route to the Internet and modern day global political agitations as recently seen in Iran has radically declined in the past two years. Nigerians are now poorer, hungrier and more physically disheveled than ever before. Most of the few who hold the power of moral-suation have either reclined into their shells out of despondency or have out of greed figured out financially rewarding but convoluted tongue-in-cheek mechanisms for explaining the malaise that hound and haunt their fellow citizens. This is the Nigeria in which many “Internet warriors” commentators, citizens and observers exist, hope and believe that the Nigerian people will rise up against election rigging in 2011.
For a lack of better words, I will say the major players, shakers, movers and kingmakers in the 2011 elections are already well known. Almost every one of them has looted or assisted in the looting of billions from the country’s coffers. They are also aware that the preponderant agitation of Nigerians is that they be put on trial and if need be, summarily executed. Yet, Nigerians are expecting these die-hard looters to set the stage for an election that will see them rail-roaded to the guillotine. I believe Nigerians are a reasonable and intelligent people and it is time to ask ourselves if we are deceiving ourselves or our beliefs.
What brings about free and fair elections is not the moral burden borne by any politician or voter. It is also not the realization that fairness and respect are imperatives in a community where peaceful co-existence is desired. Free and fair elections come about as a result of institutional restraints and the threat and actual imposition of sanctions. I do not believe for one moment that politicians in Ghana, United States, Britain and Germany but to name a few are any more “naturally” honest than Nigerian politicians. The treat of institutional superiority over the individual, heightened sense of vulnerability and sanctions are the difference. Therefore, I believe that the salvation for Nigeria, be it free and fair elections, enforcement of contracts or the rooting out of money laundering agents masquerading as bankers, are the institutional changes that will lurk in the mind of every election-rigger-to-be and looter-to-be in Nigeria.
Should we fail to see, recognize and focus on the need to change the institutional arrangements that have made election rigging and corruption possible and justifiable in Nigeria, the election riggers in 2011 would have out-flanked law-abiding and redemption-deserving citizens of the country. This is not the time to blame the impoverished, food-denied, education-denied, self-respect-denied, electricity-denied, Internet-access-denied citizens of Nigeria who have, by and large been unable to resist their oppressors. It is the time for those of us who can match in front of the White House and Downing Street without being arrested; speak without restraints; express anger without recriminations and seek legitimate change without accusations of treason to speak and act up on behalf of the unconsciously imprisoned and brutalized Nigerians. This responsibility is not a choice, it is an imperative.
Majek Adega can be contacted at [email protected]
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