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Unity Of Purpose

January 20, 2011

Last week, on the morning after Mr. Goodluck Jonathan acquired what is regarded in some quarters as the nomination of his Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to secure a four-year lease in his own name this time to occupy Aso Rock and continue to oversee the looting, which has been associated with their mis-management of the Nigeria project, I spent a little time on the telephone talking with a good friend of mine who’s visiting the US from home.

Last week, on the morning after Mr. Goodluck Jonathan acquired what is regarded in some quarters as the nomination of his Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to secure a four-year lease in his own name this time to occupy Aso Rock and continue to oversee the looting, which has been associated with their mis-management of the Nigeria project, I spent a little time on the telephone talking with a good friend of mine who’s visiting the US from home.

The thrust of our discussion was to explore the ramifications of what would follow next from particularly his opponents in the Hausa-Fulani ruling elite who he out-played in the context for the position of the overseer-in-chief of looting in the project.

The interesting premise on which we anchored our analysis is that there is indeed a unity of purpose that drives this Jona and his opponents in the Hausa-Fulani ruling elite: the preservation of the Nigeria project as it exists today.  That unity of purpose is predicated on their conviction that in its present structure, the project guarantees them unparallel immunity that enables the impunity and recklessness that characterize their exercise of state power and authority.  Jona revealed that much himself recently when he went out of his way to proclaim openly that he is opposed to the continuing demand by the nationalities who are indeed, the rightful stakeholders in the Nigeria project for the convocation of a Sovereign National Conference (SNC) where the proper foundation must be laid by their legitimate representatives for that legitimate Nigerian state. 

Although this Jona’s myopic utterance is in sync with the bumbling style that we have associated him with ever since he took over the mantle of mal-governance at the death of Mr. Umaru Yar’adua, his subterranean message to the ranks of his opponents in the Hausa-Fulani ruling elite was well-received because it quickly reciprocated in-kind with subterranean reassurances from its elements to the effect that they are quite amenable to his expectation of them to compete against him for the opportunity to be the overseer-in-chief in ways that don’t upset the cart.  Disregard their public grumblings on the platform of that Adamu Ciroma-led body, they were indeed quite grateful to the Jona when he indicated that he was quite prepared to sustain the status-quo ante.  Ibrahim Babangida’s ‘voluntary’ withdrawal from the context to become the PDP nominee was one such olive branch from the Hausa-Fulani ruling elite to Jonathan.  Abubakar Atiku’s subdued pursuit of the nomination is yet another signaler.  Anyone who understands that these are characters that were formed and socialized to engage public affairs as the extensions of just themselves, will be in the best stead to appreciate all that I’m saying here about them and their modus operandi.  If Jonathan is opposed to altering the political economy that lets them loot and keep public wealth and still walk around free, why bother?

It could have amounted to over-exerting their luck if they had insisted that Jona’s determination to remain in Aso Rock for the next four years was a show-stopper, given that he could have quickly played the sort of ruthless joker that they are accustomed to playing on their political adversaries, on them by declaring an open season on them one by one to teach them harsh lessons of real politick.  As astute actors in the power game, their mooted remonstration within their ranks even as they postured otherwise publicly must have been: Why attract all of that to themselves in their respective individual capacity, when Jona had publicly signaled to them that he’s not interested in upsetting the status quo ante?  Notwithstanding their proclivities as power mongers, they still appreciate the logic to let him stay in-charge.  After all, in his capacity as president, he’ll only prevent them from treating the Central Bank the way they are accustomed to, i.e. as the extension of their bedroom vault, and nothing more.  Everything else will be left in tact and in place. 

One thing that Jona shouldn’t loose sight of though, is that these opponents of his are going to wield the wand of political violence quite some in the days ahead, just to intimidate and remind him of the need not to over-play his hands while he remains in Aso Rock.  The fact that he has shown his lack of capacity to stop them from unleashing political violence whenever they have chosen to, will embolden them even more to rely on that repertoire quite handily henceforth more than ever.  If his handlers think I’m playing to the gallery here, I dare them to make Jona to attempt the arrest and swift prosecution of those behind the violence in say Jos, and he’ll see how dastardly those that author it from the shadows might react.

In my assessment, I do not believe that Jona’s opponents are oblivious of the role being played in the present context by their younger scion, Nuhu Ribadu who is holding the other side of the same bag through his own quest to ride on the back of the Yoruba and the unsuspecting ones amongst us to power.  If they determine that he can successfully position himself well enough using the Yoruba, they could resort to find the necessary ways and means to aid and abet his quest.  In my candid assessment, I would say that if they decide to, they might pull it off if they are willing to go out of their way to bring forth and spend their loot without restraint to fund that option.  In order to achieve that, they must also, go all out to prevent Jona who is yet to loot the sort of huge cache they have in their personal treasuries, from funding his own rigging machinery in April directly from state coffers.  Part of what they can also do to accomplish that option is to be ready to engage and possibly out-bribe him everywhere.  Will they?

I must quickly add that the Nigeria project is not destined to remain and function for the likes of Jona as well as those in the ranks of his current opponents, et al for ever.  Irrespective of the fact that they have an age-old determination to retain indefinite control of state power in the Nigeria project, there’s a limit to which the elements of the Hausa-Fulani ruling elite can manipulate all or any of the inherent circumstances in the dynamics of things as they obtain in the project to their advantage.  For instance, they can neither wish away nor stem out the continuing demand by the nationalities for the equitable restructure of the Nigeria project, for good.  Some of their actions and inactions to maintain the status quo might instead produce latent outcomes that would ultimately undermine the sustenance of the project as it exists.

Jona’s resolve to compel the Hausa-Fulani to engage him in a context for the PDP nomination this time rather than acquiesce to their demand that he must let one of their own continue as overseer from where Yar’adua and Turai let off is instructive.  It’s noteworthy that whenever the Hausa-Fulani ruling elite pushes its luck to retain implicit control of state power for good in the project, it ends up peeling one more cover off the myth that sustains it in power.  A good case in point is the crass resort by elements of the Hausa-Fulani ruling elite since the 1990s, to incite wanton political violence against the non-Muslim nationalities with whom they inhabit the upper Niger.  By so-doing, this ruling elite alienated the very groups whose members constitute most of the rank and file in the army, who it has relied on to author successful coup d’états in the past.  Thus, its age-old capacity to resort to the coup d’état as an effective repertoire, which enables it to sustain itself in state power in the Nigeria project is now history.  The logic in this line of thought is that its autocratic proclivities will subsequently lead its elements to collectively and separately exhaust all viable options to make mischief. 

Unfortunately, their counterparts from the nationalities that inhabit the south have more often than not, acted to uplift them each time when they faltered.  How much longer must those of us who are dedicated in our conviction that the Nigeria project must be re-structured to reflect the internal variations of the nationalities that were made to constitute it, tolerate the unity of purpose that exists amongst the likes of this Jona and members of the Hausa-Fulani ruling elite?

An Aside: I pray, tell me, where’s the wisdom in Jona’s supplication for God’s help with the INEC’s malfunctioning voter registration machines?

● E. C. Ejiogu, PhD; is a political sociologist.  He is the author of The Roots of Political Instability in Nigeria, which will be published at the end of January by the UK-based Ashgate Publishing Ltd.

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