Before we rip ourselves to pieces and pretend that the events of the last few days were not foreseen by some - who have been called pessimists and anti-Nigerians, especially when they reside outside Nigeria - let us consider some salient points, use this period to collect ourselves emotionally and continue the journey towards building a more perfect Nigeria.
Before we rip ourselves to pieces and pretend that the events of the last few days were not foreseen by some - who have been called pessimists and anti-Nigerians, especially when they reside outside Nigeria - let us consider some salient points, use this period to collect ourselves emotionally and continue the journey towards building a more perfect Nigeria.
This perfect Nigeria will not happen overnight as the facebook and twitter 'political party' wishes, nor should it take a hundred years as the eating class of Nigeria would prefer.
By all accounts, the election that took place over the weekend was an improvement over the election in 2007…but it was just that - an improvement! Not a perfect election, not a free and fair election, an improvement.
Before I launch into my salient observations, let me make some adhoc comments which I believe to be true, based on feedback from people on the ground across Nigeria, and in particular the South-East and South-South whose results have been called into question. This is a personal commentary, not a fact-finding expose, so those seeking 'proof' should keep that in mind.
- Party agents used cash incentives to lure people of the South-East, in particular, into voting. Naturally, PDP had the deepest pockets and a candidate whose middle name is Azikiwe couldn't have hurt, either. This could explain the high turnout there relative to what is normally seen in democratic elections.
- There were cases of ballot-box stuffing for all major parties in their areas of strength. You can only rig where you have popular support in today's Nigeria. This also explains why Bayelsa had more votes than registered voters - high turnout coupled with box-stuffing.
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- The "carry-and-go" tactics of 2003 & 2007 were largely absent. Again, the violence was not required since parties rigged strategically to avoid detection.
- Election 'observers' are not deployed to every single polling station, so comments of "free and fair" are based on what they SAW, not what HAPPENED.
But are these malpractices enough for the northern masses (and whoever is prodding them to action) to assume that Maj.Gen (rtd) Buhari would have won 'free and fair' elections in today's Nigeria? Not in this writer's opinion.
I've made ad-hoc comments above based on information given to me. Let me now state some facts that make this senseless violence non-sequitur.
1. Northern candidates (Buhari, Ribadu and Shekarau) did not campaign aggressively in the South-East and South-South and, other than Ribadu, paid only cursory attention to the South-West. It's possible that they looked at the relatively small number of votes on offer (SE has only 5 states, Bayelsa has a small population, etc) and decided it wasn't worth their effort. South-Easterners and South-Southerners will also argue that the northern elite has always taken them for granted or looked down on them politically. Regardless of the reason, this was a gross miscalculation. Advantage - Jonathan/PDP
2. The twitter and facebook generation - yes, I happen to be one of them - is not indicative of the Nigerian masses (approx. 80% of the population) who live on less than $2 a day. At the end of the day, these Nigerians want to be "belle full". It matters not who provides the food or sustenance that they need, and like helpless children - or simply, hungry children - they cannot be bothered to think beyond today. They don't see how voting for the PDP is voting for another 4 years of decaying infrastructure, failing educational systems and legalized corruption. All they see is the 500 naira or 1000 naira a party agent - who may be a brother, uncle or kinsman - gives them. Advantage - Jonathan/PDP
3. Unlike any other region, South-South and South-East leaders rallied their people around a common candidate. While the north was splitting votes and the South-West was deciding between two "progressives", the SE/SS voted as a block and overwhelmingly for one candidate. One may argue with the manner in which Ohaneze Ndigbo, in particular, has prostituted itself to anyone who promises it ministerial slots, ambassador postings, etc, especially when the PDP has done absolutely nothing for them in 12 years of governance, but they were able to put their differences aside - APGA, PPA, PDP and even a faction of the LP - and support the PDP candidate. Advantage - Jonathan/PDP
4. Contrary to popular belief - as groups like Reuters, CNN and even some Nigerian media would have us believe, the North is not 100% Muslim, nor is it 100% Hausa/Fulani/Kanuri. Igbos, Southern minorities and Yorubas - in that order - make up at least 30% of the population of the North-West and North-East. Ergo, if points 1-3 above hold, Buhari's margin of victory in states like Kaduna, Kano and Bauchi had to be smaller than Jonathan's in the South. This is a fact that has been ignored by many. Advantage - Jonathan/PDP
5. The platforms for the political parties were heavy on rhetoric and light on specifics. The man/woman in the South-East or North-Central (not having a "son of the soil" running on any party's ticket) didn't really have any basis to vote in an educated manner. This is heightened when point 2 is taken into account. Advantage - Jonathan/PDP
6. Finally, there are many southerners (and northerners) who don't want an ex-military head of state to come back and rule. In their opinion, there is nothing progressive about Buhari's policies, nor does he represent change. For southerners, this is made worse by Buhari's northern origins. Rightly or wrongly, many in the South still hold the northern military elite responsible for the abject conditions in Nigerian schools and hospitals, as well as institutionalized corruption. It's hard for them to see a Buhari - as squeaky clean as he 'appears' to be - being any different.
Those in the South-West still blame the military for June 12. Obasanjo was a son of the soil and he didn't fare well in 1999, how much more a northerner who overthrew a democratic government! Correspondingly, many in the South-East abhor anything to do with a northern military officer, given the incidents surrounding the Nigerian civil war. Advantage - Jonathan/PDP
Summarizing, yes there were probably some ethnic sentiments and religious factors at play in the elections (as even my point 6 shows). However, it should be noted that Jonathan won Nassarawa, Oyo, Adamawa and Kwara states - which are heavily Muslim. Buhari won Kaduna, which believe it or not, is at least 50% Christian. The issues surrounding the elections and how the populace voted are deeper than ethnic sentiment, and while it's "normal" for outside groups like CNN, BBC and Reuters to take the easy way out and blame all of Nigeria's issues on ethnic and religious tensions, let those of us who know better not fall into the same trap.
I advise our Northern countrymen/women to ask themselves what their leaders have done for them, and whether their lives are worth losing over the selfish actions of those who have led them without accountability. I also advise Southerners to refrain from heavy rhetoric and religious abuse, especially in public spaces like twitter and facebook. Our condition is no better, and you endanger the lives of our Christian brothers and sisters in the North with those actions.
Nigeria's issues are many, but like many in the world, are driven primarily by economic factors. Provide the people with light, provide them with free basic education at credible schools, provide them with the ability to take out low-interest loans to finance entrepreneurial activities, provide them with good roads so that public road transport becomes safer and reduces dependence on fossil fuels, provide them with security of lives and property so that they can invest locally instead of internationally...
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The government that can do these things will get the votes of the people, regardless of tribe or religion. This starts at the local and state government level - a party that hasn't performed locally can't wake up one day and have a national solution (I'm looking at you, ANPP). Until then, the people will vote for the man (or woman) who can give them enough money or food to be "belle full" on election day.
God Bless Nigeria - we need it.
Nnaziri Ihejirika, a Professional Engineer, writes from Alberta, Canada.
Follow the author on twitter @nnaziri
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