I will be upfront with the ultimate bad news. We have seemingly experienced increased political participation this election year. I say "seemingly" because it is hard to imagine a time when Nigerians were not actively interested in the political process of the country.
I will be upfront with the ultimate bad news. We have seemingly experienced increased political participation this election year. I say "seemingly" because it is hard to imagine a time when Nigerians were not actively interested in the political process of the country.
But 2011 is not going to bring the sea of change many have been hoping for. For the most part, we are going to have more of the same. Nobody wishes more than I do that I turn out to be wrong on this, but I am very inclined by events since January to believe I will not.
We already know of the show of shame that was the Delta rerun. It was Jega's INEC that conducted that election. Those who followed the National Assembly elections were aware that nationwide the PDP was being trounced except for few places in the South. Then overnight, while men slept and from nowhere, pro-PDP ballot papers emerged to give the PDP a solid majority in both chambers of the National Assembly. It was Jega's INEC that conducted those elections.
As far as the presidential election went, there was a good chance that GEJ could have won even without any rigging (GEJ had a large following especially in the South), but this was not a given. His main challenger, Buhari, was a real challenge and the election could have gone either way or a rerun could have been necessitated. But some magic fingers went to work on GEJ's behalf. In the end, voter turnout for the legislative elections were implausibly tripled across the South-South and South-East, with GEJ securing nearly 100% of the votes across these geopolitical zones. Even in the South-West, where the ACN has a very solid foothold, GEJ swept through with a hard-to-explain majority. Suddenly, the Middle Belt found fresh love for the PDP and made GEJ the conquering lion of Bayelsa. Again, it was Jega's INEC that conducted that election.
Yet many observers, including representatives from the West, hailed these elections as credible - even though all hell would have broken loose if elections in the West are marked by the irregularities that have characterized the 2011 Nigerian elections. It can be safely said, then, that the erstwhile rigging manual used in the 1999, 2003, and 2007 elections have been significantly pruned and replaced with a far more stealthy approach that leaves behind a facade of credibility and transparency while essentially and effectively making the electoral process a sham. But why should we be surprised anyway? We are still doing the same things that we did in 1999, 2003, and 2007. Naturally, the outcome should be the same.
Why should we expect the gubernatorial elections to produce any significant change? Has the electoral process changed? Has it been reformed in any way? We might be lucky to see more genuineness in the gubernatorial elections, as we were lucky to see in the legislative elections that took place in the South-West, but we cannot hold our breath for such a fluke to happen nationwide. The forces that were let loose on the country during the Delta Rerun, the National Assembly elections, and the Presidential elections will be at work during the gubernatorial elections. Yes, we can be certain that some avoidable, random variables will be injected into the whole process to produce our very familiar government magic.
Sadly, many will be quick to regard a realistic assessment of our political health as pessimism or an attempt to dampen political enthusiasm of voters. Far from it! It is my wish that we remind ourselves of where we are politically and be ever more vigilant for the gubernatorial elections. In fact, we need to quadruple our vigilance because the forces of darkness will go to work tomorrow, especially after the polls have closed, while men sleep.
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