There may be times when we are powerless to prevent injustice, but there must never be a time when we fail to protest -- Elie Wiesel
First of all I know the title of the piece sound funny or insulting to the millions of belligerent Nigerians who might have lost love ones, or are disappointed and frustrated with the present administration of President Goodluck Jonathan. But, I chose this title in good faith to shows the other side of the beauty and the opportunity that lies ahead by current shenanigan and confusion of the present government to Nigerians only if we reflect deeper. No doubt, the present government is offering a bitter, but, better medicine for healing the cancer of gullibility, fatalism and stupidity that has becomes a defining feature of our national life. And also might reawaken our intellect to think and reasons like intelligent people. My preposition is that, the current challenges facing the country, will definitely gives us the opportunity to build the logical mindset of looking at issues from a clearer point of view, instead of this sentimental outburst and gullibility. No doubt; gullibility, fatalism and stupidity have reduced Nigerians including the so called educated people, who should know better into an abysmal of shallow and shambolic citizens without moral and intellectual acumen to look at issues and national crisis with clearer and objective point of view. I intend, to project some futuristic prepositions that will guide my projection of the future of present and post President Goodluck Jonathan administration and Nigeria.
No doubt ever since President Goodluck Jonathan was (s)elected President by Nigerians amidst all the contradictions and his inexperience, I was perturbed and at the same time, concern on the choice Nigerians made with their very hand. Perturbed in the sense, that, here lies a man, who has shown to all in the last one year since power out of providence was handed down to him, that he lacks the experience and competence to managed the complex and complicated entity called Nigeria; now agitating to be a President and gullible Nigerians were not only clamouring for him; but, dangerously warning all those who deferred with the choice of gods with a great consequence if the man should failed to be a President. Concern, in the sense, that, from his physiology and psychology, I knew the man is empty in words and action to be the man that, will lead Nigeria out of the confusion and hopelessness. But, Nigerians made their choice, even though the elections was massively rigged especially in South-East and South -South, but, I will not denied the fact, that, the man has tremendous support from Nigerians, who buy into his campaign slogan of “I have no shoes”; “I was born poor”, “A breath of fresh air”; and “If I can make it, you can make”. No doubt; for the gullible and fatalistic Nigerians, the smiling and humble President appealed to their conscience and gave them a new hope of a man who understood their frustration, hopelessness and poverty, since he has experience it before. Unfortunate, for these gullible and fatalistic Nigerians, leadership, is a serious business, met for serious and determine people.
No doubt; my preposition is that, President Goodluck Jonathan is the kind of President we need in this period of uncertainty and confusion we have found ourselves, due to multiplicity of contradictions and imageries. These prepositions dissect and surgically look at the contradictions and the opportunity ahead in each of the regions and the nation at large. One, for the Niger-Delta region, a theatre of wealth and poverty, peace and war, beauty and ugliness, life and death, the emergence of President Goodluck Jonathan is a dream come through for a region that laid the golden egg. His emergence has settled the often accusation of northern region and political class for stealing their resources and improvisement of the people and community, as the son of the soil; our son, is now the President of the Federal Republic. His emergence have subtle the accusation and the threat of the people against the Nigerian state; as now, “our son”, is the best man for the job amidst contradictions and ineptitude in governance. My preposition is that, at the end of President Goodluck Jonathan administration, the Niger-Delta will be the new theatre of war and impoverishment. The various cheerleaders around will get tire of defending the ineptitude and confusion of their son, that, they will join the bandwagon of calling for his head. No doubt; the amnesty is achieving it desire result at the short run, but, at the long run, confusion, insecurity and inter-intra ethnic rivalry and conflicts will be the defining moment in the region. This is because, the fundamental problems in the region, which has to do with environmental degradation and massive poverty will not be tackle by the prodigal son of the Niger-Delta at the end of the his tenure, but, will only aggravate it to a new dimension, if the current oil thievery, pipelines destruction and environmental challenges is anything to go by.
Interestingly, this will raise a new group of disgruntle militants and disadvantage politicians that will wrestle powers and creates insecurity against the few emerging class and the beneficiary of the training, recruitment and life improvement through the Amnesty Bazaar. The end product, of the Niger-Delta people will be to have nostalgia of the General Babangida, Abacha, Chief Olusegun and Late Yar’adua days as a golden days and years for the region. The people will finally, cured themselves with understanding and appreciation to the fact that, their problems are internal in nature not the external dynamics as often projected by the elite in power. Finally, the people of the region will realize that, it is not the content or context of our son, but, on the quality of leaders that will sail them through hardship and hopelessness.
My second Preposition: the South – East region. The Preposition here is that, the South East region will not only be betrayed by the President, but, their economic interests and commercial activities will suffer heavy lost during the life spam of the government in power. There is no doubt; the Igbo speaking South-East control the commercial centre of the Nigerian federation and are often the major contractors in various government establishment across the country, that, is why the South-East political and economic class are not known for opposition politicking especially at the centre. But, unfortunately, for them, the new Ijaw ruling class of mafia will force their son, through policy measure as Chief Obasanjo did to the northern economy, to ditch the Igbos and destroys their commercial enterprises, to pave way for the Ijaw and Niger-Delta nationalities and emerging class to benefit from the economy of large scale.
This will be achieve through austerity measures against importations and seizure of lot of goods from the business men; refusal for award of contracts and political patronage and finally by escalating violence and bombing by the so called Boko Haram against the Igbos in the northern region to drive the Igbos out of the northern region and destroy their economic power house in the region and force them to migrate back to the south-east. The demographic difficulties in South-East will further complicated issues for the Igbos in the country. No doubt; South-East will miss both the political opportunity of ruling the country and also the control of their commercial and economic opportunities before President Goodluck Jonathan finish his eight years in power. This will agitate their conscience and mind, and begin their long continues search for political and now economic relevant within the Nigerian federation. I believe the South-East will begin crawling to their old time friend and benefactors, the northern region for political alliances and economic opportunities.
Thirdly, the theatre of progressive, confusion, and sophisticated and organized educated elite the South-West, will receive the heavy dosage of the Presidential fiat and economic banditry. The biggest barometer of intellectual, deception, difficulties and opposition to President Goodluck Jonathan administration will no doubt come from the South-West. But, the President men and state security apparatus will use all known and unknown convectional methods, including blackmails, threats, assassination of prominent political leaders, impunity, settlement, divide and rule, propaganda, and insecurity to threaten the people. You know the Yorubas and their progressive nature and power of blackmails, will either subtle or decrease their agitation and criticism against the government and personality of the President and his government. Unfortunately, fear, psychological trauma and economic sabotage will be defining moment of the region. But, interestingly, this will reawaken the people to rise up against the President and the government in power, for the sake of the future of the Yoruba race and the region’s economic viability and competitiveness. These protests, demonstration, strikes and agitations, will force the government, to soften it peddles and reconsider it strategies. This will also, offers opportunity for the first time, of mutual alliance and future survival instincts between the South-West and North Nigerian in history.
Fourthly, the Northern region, the theatre of war and instability, is already on it route to self-discovery. Eight years of President Goodluck administration, will usher more troubles, hardships, bombing and death for the people of the region. The government before 2014 will imposed state of emergence on almost the whole part of the region, making traveling and business transactions and exchange very difficult for the people; thus, the region, will not pose no threat to the re-election of President Goodluck Jonathan. Funny enough, the security and intelligent community will reveals the identities of Boko Haram sponsors to the general public and international community. And the recent visit of the President of International Criminal Court ( ICC) President, Judge Sang-Hyun Song and his close door meeting with the president, is a prelude to the international criminalization of the so to published list of Boko Haram sponsors. No doubt; in this list prominent Northern politicians and some sacrificial lamp from the south will be in this lists; thus, crippling their political base and names. Interestingly, the Boko Haram guys will halt the bombing and killing; thus, making, it look as real and possible. Gullible southern will believe the government and this will pose a serious threat to the peace and stability of the Nigeria state.
And more Muslims, Christians and foreigners mostly Americans, Israelites, South Africans, etc agents will be caught with heavy and sophisticated weapons in attempting to bomb churches, mosques, institutions and security outfits. Slowly, Muslims, and Christians in the region and outside the region will begin to understand and appreciate the politics of divide and rule by the ruling elite in and out of government. The government through the instigation of foreign powers, who might not be comfortable with the growing radicalization and the returns of Islamic consciousness, courage, morality and forthrightness, will through the security agencies instigates crisis between and among Muslims groups especially, between the Ahly Sunnah groups (Izala,) and members of the Islamic Movement in Nigeria, under the dynamic leadership of Sheikh Ibrahim Yaqub Alzakzaky based in Zaria. Unfortunately, instead of fighting among themselves Allah’s in His infinite Mercy and Protection will foster mutual understanding and tolerances among Muslims. At the end of the day, the new sense of brotherhood and understanding will be a defining moments of anticipated unity and understanding among Muslims. Interestingly, the volatile nature of the region, will made it difficult, for leaders and aspirants to campaign and emerged through a competitive process, especially members of the ruling People Democratic Party (PDP). Also, leaders without conscience and morality will find it difficult to survive in office; as the mass belligerent people in the region will organize and kidnap disgruntle governors and elective officials and kill them. People will loose control, as they seek to administer jungle justice. Most northern politicians will relocate to Abuja for safety and most governors will administer their state from Abuja.
I say this without fear of contradictions, Nigerians with their own hands and conscience will re-elect President Goodluck Jonathan come 2015, through a strong monetary inducement, blackmail, propaganda and the demonization of the northern region and leaders wanting to reclaim power and dominate the southerners, Christian and finally Islamize the country. This powerful propaganda, deception and fear of Islam as projected by Boko Haram insurgence will force the gullible people to completely forget the four years of ineptitude and incompetence of President Goodluck Jonathan and vote him again with the fatalistic projections, that, northerners and muslims were behind the Boko Haram crisis and thus were the reason for his failure in the last four years; thus given him another opportunity in the next four years the President will have breathing space to offers his transformational development to all Nigerians. Interestingly, with the identity of the Boko Haram Sponsors known and arrested during the epoch, the Boko Haram insurgence will reduce drastically; giving the impression, that, truly, the indicted and arrested leaders were the power behind the Boko Haram genocide. The President will be hail as a courageous leader and a man of tactical maneuvers and foresightedness.
Unfortunately, the second coming of President Goodluck Jonathan will further deepen the crisis and confusion in governance. Nigerians will not only begin to laments, but, will finally come to their sense of yet another betrayal and hopelessness. The second coming of President Goodluck Jonathan will further widen the contradiction and hopelessness in governance. The contradictions and ineptitude of President Goodluck Jonathan administration second coming will unite Nigerians nationally, against impunity, rascality, corruption, insecurity, hopelessness and confusion. Nigerians will not only be united by hunger and frustration, but, informal institutions such as government financed traditional and religious will become irrelevant to the mass of the people and the government will find it difficult to appeals to the peoples’ conscience and faith. The people will rally along the goal of survival, not break-up as people are projecting today to push for their own revolution. Hardship, hunger, impatience, poverty, and total lost of hope of national redemption will hasten the political and economic maturity of Nigerians to demand for their rights and privileges from the unproductive ruling elite.
This spontaneous combustion will be a defining moment for a once divided and confuse people. The reality, is, that, the direction and shape of this spontaneous combustion of human tragedy and hopelessness, will initially be directionless and unserious, but, as days and months passes by it will begin to gather momentum, direction and with sound ideologically, and intellectually mass movement of people of all ethnic and religious persuasion. But, fundamental, the oppressive and unjust government will collapsed through internal defection and disagreement and mistrust among and between the ruling elite. Unfortunate for me, due to the uncertainty of the epoch and spontaneous reactions of Nigerians and the inability of government to rise to the challenges of national revival, I cannot really give you the graphical representation of what the next government will look like or who will be the leaders of a new Nigeria; but, the good news is it will be a defining moment for a new nation and people, after much sacrifices and death of Nigerians.
The contradiction in the present government is an eye opener to all, that, leadership is a serious business only meant for serious people irrespective of their region, religion and ethnic background. For, me, based on my prepositions, President Goodluck Jonathan, represent, the contradiction and opportunities for Nigerians to begin to think as humans and cure themselves from the diseases and serious coma of gullibility, fatalism and stupidity which seem defined their social and political reasoning. My prepositions will begin to manifest towards the end of 2014 and come into fruition during the second coming of President Goodluck Jonathan. We can only pray for God’s mercy, protection and help against the coming disaster. For now, let see how to harness and utilize the opportunity of the contradictions and hopelessness of President Goodluck administration for present and future engagement.
Finally, I want to say, am not a masochist with an exuberant taste for violence (apologized to Professor Chinua Achebe); or anarchist or may be a pessimist per say, but, these are possible realities, that lies ahead of us as people and a nation. As a Political Economist by studies and practice, and as a member of the conspiracy school international, I believe in the power of projection based on prevailing realities and data at hand. Partly, these prepositions are product of my training and data at hand and deeper reflection.
Therefore, the better we zero our minds to the reality as they unfold the better for us. But, I believe, Nigerians can avoid this catastrophe if they amend their mind and cure themselves from this huge cancer of gullibility, fatalism and stupidity in a fastly changing world around them. For now, I humbly believe and project without fear of contradiction, that, President Goodluck Jonathan is the contradictions we need for a better engagement only if we reflect and utilize the opportunity ahead of us.
Bukhari Muhammed Bello Jega
Wuse Zone 4, Abuja