Thursday, 17 May 2012
A Giant on a Keg of Gun Powder By Uche Igwe
By By Uche Igwe
Except something urgent happens, the Nigerian state may be headed to a complete failure. The worrying signals became more pronounced in the weeks preceding the last yuletide season. As at today, popular streets in Abuja, Nigeria’s rocky capital become deserted as early as 6pm every day, same as in many state capitals. Palpable fear has gripped the population and the feeling of insecurity is pervasive.
The threats of the dreaded Islamist terrorist group Boko Haram have been followed with successive attacks leading to massive destruction of lives and properties, with the majority of the victims coming from amongst innocent citizens, worshipping peacefully in Christian churches as well as law enforcement agents.
Nigerian security agencies have often been caught unawares, hiding under the excuse that the phenomenon of Islamic militancy is a new one. Christians in the northern part of the country have been particularly targeted by these insurgents who are said to be clamouring for the imposition of an Islamic state governed by Shari’a laws. The federal government in the perceived hot bed zones of the terrorists has imposed a state of emergency but this has done little to reduce frequency of the attacks. Rather, many more states are witnessing these attacks, underlining the ineffectuality and insufficiency of the response strategy of the government. Citizens are in a state of panic as rampaging Islamist insurgents first, handed down threats to Christian southerners living in the Muslim dominated northern Nigeria to leave, and then followed up their threats with concentrated scattered mayhem.
Prominent opinion leaders believe that the Nigeria’s President Goodluck Jonathan’s handling of the situation has been less than satisfactory. A wind of disgruntlement is blowing across the land. Ayo Oritsejafor leader of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), the national umbrella organisation of Nigeria’s more than 76 million Christians, has warned that the continuous indifference of Northern leaders towards incessant killing of Christians is an open invitation to civil war.
On top of this delicate security situation, the administration of President Goodluck Jonathan proceeded to announce on the 2nd of January 2012, the removal of government subsidy on premium motor spirit (PMO), with the effect that PMO now costs an average of 141 Naira with the product selling for as high as 250 Naira in some areas of the country, as against the former price of 65 Naira. Widespread protests led by labour unions, professional associations and civil society groups greeted the government’s policy announcement. The government claims that it is unable to sustain expenditures on the subsidy, which it claims will gulp a whopping 1.3 Trillion Naira (more than 700 Million dollars) in the 2012 fiscal year. The shady and sordid subsidy regime is believed to be a conduit for grand corruption for the vampire elite. Few weeks ago, the Nigerian National Assembly published the list of companies benefiting from the subsidy money and it included construction companies that had little or nothing to do with the oil and gas industry. Mr Jonathan’s advisers led by former World Bank Managing Director, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala claim that the money saved from the subsidy removal will be re-invested in other vital sectors of the economy including infrastructure and power, instead of lining the pockets and bank accounts of a few privileged individuals.
Dr. Okonjo-Iweala and other advocates of subsidy removal argue that market forces will force down prizes in the long term. However, many Nigerians do not believe them. A turn-around maintenance (TAM) of the four local refineries have been ordered but industry experts argue that it is yet unclear how the expected boost in local refining capacity will force down prices when domestic crude is still procured at international prices. A profit-conscious ‘cartel’ will concentrate on maximizing their returns rather than worry about the impact on consumers. The announcement of the subsidy removal policy caught many Nigerians unawares, eating deeper into the dwindling popularity of Jonathan’s government. A face-saving and reactionary palliative package has been announced by the government but the citizens still remain adamantly doubtful. A few of those who support this policy remain critical of the timing and manner of introduction of the new policy.
Prominent members of Parliament even from within President Jonathan’s ruling party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) have become less supportive and more evasive in their views about the policy as citizen angst grow. Already prices of all food items and transport fares across the country have quadrupled indicating possible inflationary trends that could wipe out marginal economic growth in Africa’s second largest economy and largest producer of crude oil. Nigeria’s crude oil production figures have gradually risen to about 2.6 million barrels per day since amnesty was granted to Niger Delta combatants, but the increase in oil revenue has not led to any significant development in Nigeria or improvement in the living standard of the people. Rather, the Nigerian extractive industry continues to remind the world of the paradox of plenty, under-development and environmental pollution.
The Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC) announced a nationwide strike that started on Monday, 9th of January in an attempt to force the Jonathan administration to revert to the former petrol pump price of 65 Naira per litre. The Nigerian economy will encounter huge losses from the industrial action. However, there is little indication that a policy reversal is likely. There are speculations that divisions within the polity and rising discontent among the populace may lead to a situation where the nationwide strike action gets hijacked by political opportunists to cause mischief, which may snowball into something more catastrophic. In an already volatile security situation this calls for concern. Africa’s giant is sitting astride a keg of gunpowder. Prominent Nigerians like Nobel Laureate Oluwole Soyinka and famous writer Chinua Achebe have warned the federal government to hasten to steer the ship of the Nigerian state out of turbulent waters. The days ahead are pregnant with significance. President Goodluck Jonathan’s ability to contain the urgent security challenges of the citizens, tackle Islamic insurgents head on, engender trust within the population and adopt evidence-based approaches to policy dialogue will go a long way to determine the shape of things to come in Africa’s most populous nation.
Uche Igwe is a research scholar and governance expert. He can be reached on ucheigwe@gmail.com
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Brilliant Analysis!
Submitted by Soji Apampa (not verified) on January 13, 2012 - 01:28.
Brilliant Analysis!
Re: A giant on a keg of gun powdwer
Submitted by Fidelis Emele (not verified) on January 12, 2012 - 13:42.
yes, Uche..your article is a clear summary of d present situation in Nigeria..neither labour nor the govt. seem to be compromising..the suffering is getting worse each day..i hope this doesn't lead to a state of anarchy...
SHUT DOWN OIL PRODUCTION; IMPEACH THE DICTATOR & OPPRESSOR!
Submitted by EJIRO OKENE (not verified) on January 12, 2012 - 03:26.
This is the worst Government Administration Nigerians will ever have. Remember, this whole episode was foretold months before the elections but we were sentimental. Oil production must be shut down intoto. All Government offices, Airports & Seaports must remain shut until PMS is reversed back to N65. Those Nigerians who were killed during this struggle must not die in vain. Nelson Mandela fought similar injustice for years with his freedom. Fuel subsidy removal at this time is illegal, fraudulent, and irresponsible. It smacks of gross inefficiency of Govt. I unequivocally call upon the NASS to save Nigerians from this ruthless & insensitive “cabal” that has hijacked the Presidency. I call for the impeachment of Jonathan, NOW!
Blood Sucking Strategy
Submitted by chukwuemeka Osuigwe (not verified) on January 11, 2012 - 23:26.
When I look at the blood sucking strategy of the subsidy benefactors, I felt like it is necessary to remove the subsidy. I think the first step is to build refineries, at least four of them before subsidy removal. Companies could be called in to bid for the contract and develop it with their capital and allowed to manage it for a certain period of time and make their money and go. Then government will either reappoint them for another period of time based on performance to be stipulated on contract or manage it themselves. But I doubt government management sustainability, particularly in Africa. Poor leadership in Africa is costing us a lot. The result of removing the subsidy is tragic and a complicated issue. The masses will suffer when removed and if it is not removed, the blood sucking strategy will continue to manifest and things will never be better. Hence I am advocating contract bidding offer for a certain period, while paying for subsidy until the refineries are completed.
never again...
Submitted by aremu (not verified) on January 11, 2012 - 22:45.
no hausa fulani or kanuri muslim would rule nigeria again...they should go back to the drawing board...or continue to kill until something snaps...
Every argument in nigeria is
Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on January 11, 2012 - 22:33.
Every argument in nigeria is domiciled in tribal and religious borders, the honest truth is that Johnatthan was elected to power purely by sentimental followership, very few people contemplated the consequence of his ineptitude before voting him. It is obvious that the people of the s/south have hijacked the Johanatthan presidency forgetting that with out the help of the yorouba, the Johanatthan presidency would not be possible.
The South saw Johanatthan as their own.
Deep down, the people detest disrespect for their humanity.
Submitted by Elmango Meat (not verified) on January 11, 2012 - 21:45.
@Uche Igwe,
I agree the country is falling apart and things will get rapidly worse if Goodluck does not do what is right, right now. Oil subsidy removal was the straw. Deep down, the people have endured blatant corruption and disrespect for their humanity.
Solution is Simple, Fight corruption.
JONATHAN knows what is right, but can he fight for the rights of the commoner when he runs with the hares and hunts with the hounds?
If Goodluck is not in cahoots with the corrupt elements, then he should take the sensible path of bringing the criminals of OIL subsidy to book. The Nigerian people were with him when Turai's cabal made a minced meat of you. They won then and they will win again. I promise you.
Why is he going against these same people now?
Tambuwal, David Mark have chosen sides, where is he heading? He should not lead us to another civil war please.
NIGERIA HAS CHANGED FOREVER
Submitted by ibrahim saad (not verified) on January 11, 2012 - 21:11.
ASPIRING POLITICIANS WHO, LIKE JONATHAN, THOUGHT THAT LEADERSHIP IS ALL ABOUT THE LUXURIES OF OFFICE SUCH AS PRIVATE JETS AND PHANTOM ALLOCATION OF PEOPLES FUNDS SHOULD THINK AGAIN. NIGERIA HAS CHANGED.
OKONJO-IWEALA AND SANUSI ARE REALISTIC
Submitted by osita DIOKA (not verified) on January 11, 2012 - 20:04.
The above mentioned Bankers both have international reputation for excelling in thier fields.The truth is that the treasury has been dealt a great blow by corruption mostly presided upon by the corrupt PDP in the recent past,Nigeria is like a cow which has been milked to its limit.Responsibility for this predicament lies on just a few,a gang of thieves disguised as politicians and godfathers running a heartless criminal enterprise at the expense of the suffering masses.Thier salaries and allowances are criminally insane,security votes are just run as personal bank balances,while the proceeds from crude oil is siphoned in the name of "subsidy".this has left the infrastructure to rot away,the education and health sectors,a disgrace,while lip service is constantly paid to the agriculture sector.The world bank can trace our stolen funds,Mrs Okonjo-Iweala knows where the money is going,so does Sanusi,give them a chance to block the leaks or forget Nigeria.
TIME TO BLAME THE CABAL:LEAVE NDIGBO IN PEACE.
Submitted by osita DIOKA (not verified) on January 11, 2012 - 19:32.
How did we get here?For the 8 years of OBJ,he was both President and petroluem minister,he as President and petroluem minister established the blue print that led to the present catastrophy.first of all he allegedly expended $billions in "refurbishing" existing refinaries,well we now know that all that money was embezzelled and nothing was done.Then we all witnessed the steep rise of companies in the oil sector mostly of SW and Hausa-Fulani ownership,these were mere proxy companies used by godfathers to dominate the oil sector,infact most of these companies can be traced back to one man.How come that all of a sudden Nigeria is producing the up to 4 billionaires in Africa top ten richest men,infact the Diamond dealing wealthy family of south Africa who have done honest bussiness for almost a century was overtaken by a Nigerian as the richest in Africa.All this wealth can be authentically traced to oil subsidy by international bankers.NDIGBO WILL NOT PROTEST TO PROTECT THESE THIEVES.
the Ibo man is a disgrace.
Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on January 11, 2012 - 17:15.
Its no shock thatibos are being killed anyhow in this nation and nothing happens. They cant protest,many say they support subsidy and all is because they want their shops to be opened so they can continue their business. meanwhile the evidence of a failed state is more common in the east.
Compare the increase of fuel
Submitted by deri (not verified) on January 11, 2012 - 14:06.
Compare the increase of fuel price by over 900% in just under 2yrs in 1994(from 23 kobo per litre under Ernest Shonekan to N11 per litre under Abacha), which enjoyed the support of BUHARI, with this present increase of about 110% in 5yrs, from N65 per litre in 2007 to N141 per litre in 2012. Buhari did not see the WiCKED increase of over 900% in 1994,over 2yr period, under Abacha as DECLARATION OF WAR on the Nigerian people. He did not feel any MORAL BURDEN in heading the PTF to manage the proceeds from that murderous increment. But Buhari and his CPC has described the 110% increase of fuel price, in 5yrs, under President Jonathan, as DECLARATION OF WAR on the Nigerian people. SHAME on those who have been CONSISTENTLY INCONSISTENT. He truncated democracy in 1983 only to come back to contest elections in 2003,2007 and 2011. He vowed not to go to court after 2011 elections but we later found him in court. Again he said he'll quit politics but he is still LOITERING around politics. SHAME!
Nigeria has we all knew it has reached its useful "EOL" !!!
Submitted by Gen Rommel (not verified) on January 11, 2012 - 12:55.
We should stop being in denials because we're afraid of the challenges starring at our face. Nigeria as we knew it has come to its useful end of life "EOL". Wether we like it or not, it is finished. The years of lack of planning, corruption, de-industrialisation, lack of strong institutions, neglect & Social exclusions of the majority etc has finally brought us to where we are today. Even GEJ has submitted that he does not have the confidence in his administration any more, has the Security apparatus is compromised & so are the Executive & legislative arms. The truth is that the fuel subsidy is not sustainable anymore, but absence of coping mechanism is the trigger to make everything implode. The Hausa-Fulani hegemonial plan has failed in continuing in the old unproductive renseeking activities Culture. Thus making them fight dirty using Terror as a leverage. There will not be an Election in 2014, Nigerians will never accept Hausa-Fulani rule again.
