Thursday, 17 May 2012
Monday Quarter-Backing: On The Matter Of The 2011 Presidential Election In Nigeria
By Mobolaji E. Aluko, PhD
Dear Compatriots: 1. After a false and aborted start on April 2, two sets of elections have now come and gone in Nigeria: April 9 (National Assembly elections) and April 16 (Presidential elections). The third round (the Gubernatorial and state assembly elections, along with some national assembly elections postponed from April 9) will be held on Tuesday April 26.
2. I have provided in the Appendix several summary tables and a map of the two elections so far.
3. I want to be categorical in stating that I believe strongly that so far, 2011 Elections have been better than 1999, 2003 and 2007, but there are still some slips between the cup and the lip between registration, accreditation, voting, counting, pasting, collation and announcement.
For example, with respect to the new (and verily expensive) voter registration that was embarked upon, it is true that country-wide there could have, must have been multiple registrations, and so in general registration numbers may be inflated. I was, for example, alarmed when between the provisional number and the final number, the number of registered voters in Niger State suddenly went from 721,478 to 2,175,421. But the Modified Open-Secret Ballot System (MOBS) - as in June 12, 1993 - that Jega sprung on us all made it rather difficult for people to go from polling booth to polling booth to vote due to double registration, since you had to STAY to accredit first, and then return at a set time to vote.
Therefore, on the whole, to rig in these elections, you have to be more sophisticated that in previous times.
But even then, rigging is possible. For example, I understand that a different rigging method was introduced this time in some polling units in at least one of the states - it was phoned in to me. That is - multiple registration and voting AT THE SAME polling unit. This is how it worked: Suppose there were 300 registered voters in a PU, and only 100 came to be accredited. Then through connivance with electoral officers and intimidation of those who would protest, some of those 100 would be allowed to stay and re-accredit in place of those 200 that did not come. Then they will also be allowed to re-vote - twice, sometimes three times.
However, in general kudos to INEC Chairman Prof. Jega, and to President Goodluck Jonathan who appointed him. So far, we seemed to have cleaned up in major fashion the first five steps, but it seems that we still need to clean up the last two steps to prevent the possibility or actualities of what has now been called "air rigging", which can very easily be proved if the complainants insist. That is MAJOR progress that we can (or should be able to) live with.
Hopefully, 2015 will be even much better....or even before then, April 26, 2011!
4. Incumbent president Goodluck Jonathan has been declared winner and presented his certificate by INEC Chairman Prof. Jega. The only hope for Buhari to have won - or even to force a run-off - was heavy turn-out and many wins in the South-Western states, whether there was an alliance or not; he was already heavily favored in much of the North and not at all in the SS and SE. Without the alliance though, and as the numbers from various polling units (where there were absolutely no concerns about rigging) started to come in early last Saturday in the SW showing wins for Jonathan, all hope for him was lost by 6 pm Nigerian time on that day.
3. The South-South/SouthEast (SS/SE) conundrum on presidential election results is not just about percentage of voters opting for Jonathan in those states per se, but voter turnout on a state-by-state basis. They were unusually high (67% in those two regions), and as high as 86% in Bayelsa. (The Bayelsa figure was 107% of the initial provisional number).
Let me give a number of examples, starting with Imo State. On April 16, it recorded 1,409,850 voters out of 1,687,293 registered voters in this presidential election, for a voter turn-out of 83.6%, right? However, in the April 9 election to the Senate of that same state, the total votes were as follows (taking them from an INEC table):
- Imo East: 228,274 voters (won by Chris Anyanwu of APGA, with 84,342 votes)
- Imo West: 212,957 voters (won by Hope Uzodinma of PDP, with 85,042 votes)
- Imo North: 114,244 voters (won by Ambassador Nwagwu of PDP, with 60,449 votes
---------------------------------------------
TOTAL: 555,475 votes
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That means that in one week, the number of people who came to the polls in Imo for the National Assembly elections almost tripled (from 32.9% voter turnout) for the Presidential elections?
Now that may however be a reflection of the high anxiety over the fact of the news of registration numbers that gave such overwhelming advantage to the SW and NW. , but I will be hard-pressed to go along COMPLETELY with that fact. It turned out that SW voter turnout was abysmal (32%) while NW show was just above 50% (actually 54.5%).
Next, let us look at Lagos State: 1,945,044 voters in the presidential elections, out of 6,108,069 registered voters for a 31.8% voter turn out.
But on April 9 we had (again using INEC figures):
- Lagos Central: 301,570 voters (won by ACN's Remi Tinubu 202,506)
- Lagos East: 320,372 total voters (won ACN's Gbenga Ashafa 222,439)
- Lagos West: 812,924 total voters (won by ACN's Ganiyu Solomon 503,786)
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TOTAL: 1,434,866 total voters
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This amounted to a 23.9% voter turn-out - meaning that the presidential turnout step-up by less than 10% was quite believable.
Finally, I looked at Katsina, which on April 16 had 52.5% turn out with 1,639,532 voters out of 3,126,898 registered. On April 9 for Katsina we had:
- Katsina North (395,693 voters) (won by Audu Yandoma of CPC 315,324 votes)
- Katsina South (546,549 voters) (won by Abu Ibrahim of CPC 324,652 votes)
- Katsina Central (430,886 voters) (won by Ahmed Store of CPC 217,154 votes)
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TOTAL: 1,373,128 voters
for a voter turnout of 43.9%, again for an increase of less than 10% going up to the presidential race.
By the way, the same analysis done COUNTRY-wide (including in the North) to compare April 9 to April 16 will be found in Table 4 below. I just wanted to use that these examples to indicate some discrepant suspicion, that is all, but there could be good explanations for them for the delays - bad roads, delayed materials - some lame.
Please understand that I do not doubt the % of votes given to Jonathan in the SE and SS, given the almost complete lack of competition in those areas by Buhari and Ribadu. With an incumbent "Easterner", a like-able Otuoke son with an Ogbia-Ijaw name like Ebele (that can be confused with Ebel(r)echukwu) and a nickname Azikiwe being the man to vote for, he was a shoo-in. But what can be jiggled is the TOTAL turnout, which an Excel spreadsheet can easily be used to work to the answer: just hold the percentages fixed, but juggle the total voters turnout figure to get a pre-determined national outcome - and by the way, just in case rigging is going on elsewhere too, where full advantage is being taken of the large differential registration of the NW and SW!
4. There is also the perception and the reality. Honestly, I would have loved on Election Day for results to be pouring in from all parts of the country on a random basis - this one from a SE state, then that one from NW state, then from a SW state, a couple from SS, then NE, etc. I just craved no ill-perceptions in these presidential elections. But for virtually all of the day, nothing was received from the SS and the SE, as if some reports were being held back to see what to do later. That may not have been the case - but it sure looked like it. We should watch out for that next time - both in local and national elections.
5. It is doubtful if CPC and ACN party agents were in 10% of the polling units in the SS and SE. However, that a party's polling agent is not at a polling unit does not mean it loses its right not to be cheated. Just thought that I should throw that in. We should not condone the notion of property thievery simply because the owner is not around.
6. No electoral democracy is perfect - and ours needs serious improvement. However, we must eschew violence, and rather use the courts carefully to settle our grievances. But before then, we must put honest men (like Jega) and women (yet to be fully discovered, not like those in those videos of thumb-printings!) in positions that have to do with the electoral process; deploy technology appropriately and ensure that political parties and citizens protect their votes all the way..
7. In conclusion, "Congratulations!" to President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan of Nigeria, worthy son of Otuoke village, in Ogbia-land of the Ijaw people in the Niger-Delta.
Best wishes always.
And there you have it.
Bolaji Aluko
Turning in slowly.....
Towards Otuoke
Comments
21 comment(s)
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HYPOCRITE OR CONFUSED THE FORMER
Submitted by oladee (not verified) on April 20, 2011 - 23:34.
worthy son of Otuoke village, in Ogbia-land of the Ijaw people in the Niger-Delta.
This hypocrite is a solid ACN supporter who has SUGGESTED that REMI TINUBU SHOULD BE THE PRESIDENT OF THE SENATE PRAISING JONATHAN TO HIGH HEAVENS SIMPLY BECAUSE OF HIS APPOINTMENT AS VC..SHAME ON YOU SON OF THE DISCREDITED ABACHA POLITICIAN.
PDP is threatening all! Now
Submitted by Ani Sam (not verified) on April 20, 2011 - 20:41.
PDP is threatening all!
Now with this same party has made this one another(s)election and it seems to have compromised the larger than life credibility of Jega and all others.
Those who think they are now free from the so-called 'Hausa/Fulani oligarchy' needs to know that the foolishness of 'our man is the there, everything is okay' will not solve the problems of Christians in lack of good governance orchestrated by the PDP since 1999.
If we cannot shine our eyes and see that it is few Muslims and Christians (PDP is it not both of them?)that are cheating at the expense of the majority (Muslims and Christians) wallowing in abject poverty THEN WE ARE MAKING THE WORST BLUNDERS and enemies of Nigeria have succeeded so they can continue looting and you continue killing each other depending a southern president who is pushed by a handful Hausas to dry the nation.
I pity those who think all is well having PDP as the ruling party and being satisfied with RIGGING in Nigeria!!
Double talk
Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on April 20, 2011 - 18:12.
This write-up has a lot of muddled facts. Writer is definitely biased in his analysis. I wondered why he thinks GEJ would have lost in SS and SE, but win in his native Ekiti State?
We all know that GEJ is not a fan of many people. The fact is that he WON the election squarely. Any attempt to discredit the election points to enemies of Nigeria who are stoking the embers of murder, looting and burning of property. Prof. Aluko, this so called musing exposes your ambivalence.You have never really taken a definitive position in any national issue. Always trying to be the good guy to all! If GEJ did not win the election, please for integrity sake, reject your apointment as VC in GEJ's backyard.
Deduct SE AND SS
Submitted by bongi (not verified) on April 20, 2011 - 17:47.
I won't claim this simple arithmetic or say i originated it, i read it in the Nation nespares and it makes perfect sense.
Since so much noise is being made about the South East And South South figures being bloated, let's deuct them shall we? Combination of both areas comes to a total voters figure of 9m. Deduct that 9m totally from GEJ final figure of 22.5m and you have 13.5m, still at least 1m votes more than CPC candidate.
What am i saying? By simple majority, GEJ still beat CPC handsdown!!! So can we talk about something else??????? GEJ is the man Nigeria wants. FULLSTOP!
Bolaji the comedian
Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on April 20, 2011 - 17:36.
Bolaji Aluko, you never cease to amaze me. You have become more satirecal than Jegede shokoyo or even your name sake Bolaji the TV star. This analysis smacks of your normal arrogance of know it all. Of course it is all about monday quaterbacking, because you are sitting in your comfortable home in far away Maryland USA while analyzing what took place in Nigeria. Whether GEJ's middle name is Ebele of Ijaw extraction or Igbo it does not matter and even your supposedly Azikiwe nickname makes no difference. He could have beaten any Hausa man today in Nigeria. We are tired of being lorded over by the Hausa Fulani and that was why all Nigerians including northern minorities, South east , south south, south west and middle belt voted en-mass for Jonathan. From the riots in the Hausa states, you could see that the rest of Nigeria is heading towards a new direction, while they are fast joining their taliban brothers in Arabia.
This piece is very malicious,
Submitted by TOBY (not verified) on April 20, 2011 - 17:31.
This piece is very malicious, & filled with insiduous innuendos couched under the appearance of balanced stats. 3 themes emmerge:
1. The insinuation of an "Igbo grand conspiracy" to seize presidential power thru a Manchurian candidate Goodluck Jonathan, a known Ijaw man,.. is wrong!
2. (sic)"The elections in the NW and SW were more law abiding". This is the usual "leverage and contrast politics". Its wrong!
3. The turnout in senatorial elections is equal to that for the presidential elections. Using the US mid term congressional election and the presidential election as an example, this use of stats is wrong!
Buhari also accuses Bola Tinubu of selling his votes to PDP in the SW. These types of incendiary suggestions are baseless and wrong!
Well written article but
Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on April 20, 2011 - 16:28.
Well written article but please cross-check all your facts before publishing. Your statement below is very inaccurate. Small mistakes like this damage credibility.
Cited from article - "Honestly, I would have loved on Election Day for results to be pouring in from all parts of the country on a random basis...But for virtually all of the day, nothing was received from the SS and the SE, as if some reports were being held back to see what to do later".
Presidential Elections Commentary by Prof Aluko
Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on April 20, 2011 - 16:28.
Just read your analysis of the recent Presidential election on the internet.
Are you one of the new Vice-Chancellors recently appointed by President Jonathan? If so, a disclosure in your write-up would have been necessary.
I find your analysis largely believable but I find your comments tepid with respect to what your observations showed.
For many of us, your defining moment in our public psyche was when you took a sharply critical position against your brother Senator Gbenga Aluko during the scandal he was involved in at the National Assembly.
That is why it's somewhat sad that you sound equivocal in this your piece.
Perhaps we've lost another erstwhile reliable public commentator.
I totally agree with you The Don
Submitted by sapele water on April 20, 2011 - 16:22.
Buhari is a very poor loser and could not have won anything from the SS, SE and even the SW. And Buhari should not have expected any votes from the middle belt so like I have always said on this forum Buhari is a very poor planner and a very poor loser.
Prof. what else are you looking for?
Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on April 20, 2011 - 16:16.
This is a typical way of Nigerians. After so many shuttles to Nigeria and plenty of online essays, prof. Aluko finally got rewarded with Vice-chancellorship of a new university. Now rather than focussing on the job, he is busy writing on Saharareporters, apparently to get noticed again. Perhaps this time for a ministerial job.
Nigerian professors are never satisfied until they get administrative jobs. In Nigeria, there are mmore profs in government service than in the universities.
imaginatively written and
Submitted by loloa2 (not verified) on April 20, 2011 - 15:59.
imaginatively written and objectively delivered, but, those whose family name is corruption will never see in your analysis, accurate presentation of facts. What an article written by a prof. of substance.
Well written piece. Let us
Submitted by The Don (not verified) on April 20, 2011 - 15:46.
Well written piece. Let us not deceive ourselves, there was no need to manipulate the results in certain part of the country because Jonathan would have won. However, some people don't just want free and fair election in Nigeria because they want to remain relevant. Just wait till Tuesday, and you people would know what I am talking about. In a free and fair election, some of the governors would not even win thier household talkless of a whole state. We should condemn election rigging when we see one. Let us choose who to lead us because some of these leaders are simply morons.
A NIGERIA THAT WILL WORK
Submitted by BiafraWarLord on April 20, 2011 - 15:36.
In our differences lie our strenght:
1. A listening President in the person of Jonathan,
2. An anti-corruption czar in the person of Buhari,
3. A minister for Police affairs to eradicate corruption in the police force in the person
of Nuhu Ribadu and
4. A special Adviser to Mr. President in the person of Shekarau.
Give me this combination and I will tell you a Nigeria that will work.
A NIGERIAT WILL WORK
Submitted by BiafraWarLord on April 20, 2011 - 15:33.
In our differences lie our strenght:
1. A listening President in the person of Jonathan,
2. An anti-corruption czar in the person of Buhari,
3. A minister for Police affairs to eradicate corruption in the police force in the person
of Nuhu Ribadu and
4. A special Adviser to Mr. President in the person of Shekarau.
Give me this combination and I will tell you a Nigeria that will work.
This was a brilliant article.
Submitted by Patriot (not verified) on April 20, 2011 - 15:18.
This was a brilliant article. The election was relatively free but there are question marks we need to answer. We are unable to successfully present a common front because the results effectively split the nation into two halves.
I urge the CPC, if they have solid evidence, to go to court. If there was indeed rigging, it would only be fair to those who went out to vote en masse, that the results be challenged in court.
That is a good work Prof
Submitted by ezeulo (not verified) on April 20, 2011 - 15:02.
That is a good work Prof Aluko. the courts are open and judges are ready to hear election complains and petitions. There is no reason whatsoever to attack innocent Nigerians in the North. We are sick and tired of these primitive behavior. If you are not satisfied with election outcome go to court and leave innocent citizens alone.
Presidential election is over......What next ?
Submitted by umu oke (not verified) on April 20, 2011 - 14:45.
Killing of youth Corpers,burning of churches and destroying Igbo properties in the northern states, without provocation have nothing to do with politics. President Goodluck Jonathan has been elected to solve Nigerian's political problems.The frequent muslim riots and violence in the North have reached a point that no Southerner can tolerate it any-more, any-longer. President Jonathan should, as a matter of urgency, for peace and security, call a Sovereign National Conference to discuss how to live together or simply,call for a Referendum on Oodua Republic; on Biafra Rep ; on Niger Delta Rep; on Middle Belt Rep; and on the Republic of Arewa Emirate. Nigeria is like UdSSR,then,Jonathan must be a Gorbachov now.
Umu Oke, Germany.
Professor Aluko, You were not
Submitted by Our Nigeria (not verified) on April 20, 2011 - 14:23.
Professor Aluko,
You were not on ground in Nigeria. You are seating in your comfort chair in America and pushing numbers and figures phone in to you by ACN and CPC operative cos both parties have Yoruba Candidates and you are an ACN and CPC sympathiser going by all your slanted work. Bakare Buhari VP candidate was in your house, Ribadu ACN candidate was in your house in America.
You are just pushing your selfish agenda thats all and reasonable people in Nigeria do not take you serious if not all your secret campaign for ACN and CPC would have won them the election.
Now you are using Imo state number given to you by phone from Nigeria and using Katsina number given to you by phone from Nigeria. Were is yoruba number. I beg
We beg you to stop your secret campaign against President Jonathan and against south south and south east.
Dr Aluko Judgement is biased and very political
Submitted by Larryuk (not verified) on April 20, 2011 - 14:16.
Unargueably, GEJ is no saint. The business of politics in Nigeria is 'chop make I chop' (CMIC). I won't be suprise if in the end we discover that Dr Aluko was Jonathan's political consultant.
Jonathan's first agenda must be: 'clean the system in and out'. But can you give what you don't have. The ABC of this matter is that: Jonathan is also corrupt.
Nigerians only voted: 'half bread is better none'.
CPC not going to court
Submitted by Anon3 (not verified) on April 20, 2011 - 14:15.
The CPC is not ready to go to court. Buhari said so. If you are cheated and you don't want to fight it legally then you might as well accept defeat and shut up!
Mild?
Submitted by Tunde Babs on April 20, 2011 - 13:49.
Thanks Prof.
I can understand your mildness in the language chosen in your analysis. I would do more to safe my job and favours (deservedly though).
Your analysis is quite on the mark and every Nigerian with the right amount of white and grey matter at the right proportion would understand that the Presidential election was free but not fair.
However if the CPC has the appetite to proceed to court and the judges are willing,this appears a case that could be easily proven. Not as easy as the word easy sounds though, because it could require having to examine every ballot paper used in 120000 PU in the country(Total of about 31000000 as the result suggest).
There is certainly no EXCUSE for violence towards percieved opposition as done in the Northern part of the Country. If any protest at all it should not be directed at any citizen but the Government and its institution of rigging as done in 1993 (mostly in the West).
