1. After the expiration of the 60 cease fire the Niger Delta impasse will not be resolved.
2. The FG will try to attack militants relying on faulty intelligence reports from the inept intelligence agencies.
3. The military will attack more villages and kill innocent civilians in an attempt to dislodge militants. The military will further aggravate the situation by this attack.
4. Those who accepted amnesty will return to the creeks.
5. MEND will carry out more devastating attacks on Oil and Gas installations.
6. Destruction of oil and gas installations can never be stopped by military means because the network of pipes is wide and in difficult terrain.
7. SSS, NIA and DMI will continually offer inept intelligence reports because of the Northernization of these agencies.
8. Militant attacks will be upgraded to the killing of foreign investors in the oil and gas sector because anyone who does business with an unjust government is as guilty as that government.
9. Key Nigerian Military officers of Northern extraction will be assassinated in retaliation for the killing and raping of civilians by the military. Treacherous Niger Delta politicians will also be eliminated by sniper squads.
10. Foreign investors will flee from the country due to security concerns.
11. Revenue for the FG will drop considerably due to persistent attacks and security concerns.
12. Britain we attempt to assist the FG by campaigning for MEND to be classified as a terrorist organization.
13. The UN Security Council will be divided over this issue as China and Russia will veto such a classification.
14. Russia would want to have total control of the gas supply chain hence Russia will assist MEND in other to ensure they are in control of the Gas project linking Nigeria to Europe.
15. Britain will make a u-turn by abandoning the North and trying to assist the Niger Delta. Russia and Western Europe will battle for the Gas supply chain using the Niger Delta as their pivotal focus. When the Niger Delta snobs the overtures of Britain, British intelligence will attempt to sow seeds of disaffection amongst Niger Deltans.
16. The Niger Delta will align with Russia due to Britain’s past role. The seeds of disaffection planted by Britain amongst Niger Deltans will be overcome and the Niger Delta will emerge strong and powerful.
17. Nigeria will disintegrate or transform into a confederation.
Dr. Howard Lawson
New York
United States
Hack1978@yahoo.com
Comments (15)
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Petros Simpson
said:
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... Truth is almost always bitter but it has to be said anyway, not necessarily 4 all to believe but as a reminder: 1. Only individuals of the Northern Nigeria origin has dominated the Nigerian ruling class in both military and the so called 'civilian' controls. 2. The Northerners are not the most educated or brilliant ones in Nigeria and yet still controls the Nigeria nation and every institution of power within the country to date. 3. Average Igbo man is dubious, believing in 'survival of the most fit' after being defeated in the Biafran war and denied any position in government or any development for a long period of time. 4. Average Yoruba man is an opportunist, having been given unmerited positions in government, taken from the Igbos after the Biafran war. Also considered the only area in focus for development since the Igbos had lost it all in the war. 5. Average Niger Delta man is developmentally short-sighted, having joined the hausas to fight Ojukwu to a negetive history, for the same course for which they are crying now, which was glaring to Ojukwu as at early 60s. 6. The most expensive and about the best estates in Nigeria are built on lands worst in natural terrain than the Niger Delta rejected lands. (Victoria Island, Banana Island, Lekki,etc.) 7. 90%-99% of all developments in the major cities of Nigeria are done with money from the Niger Delta crude oil. 8. The worst developed town in the entire western Nigeria is better than Oloibiri, the town where the first successful oil well was drilled in the Niger Delta, from which there is still oil production 2 date. 8b. There are more higher institutions of learning in Ibadan city than there are in the entire Rivers State, both in standard and number. 9. The highest individaully owned buildings from, say, personal business in all developed cities in Nigeria belong to Igbo man. 10. The worst turn of events in Nigeria always benefits some, (as the Biafran war benefited the Yoruba man with government attention, access to education etc), and the present MEND war is bound to benefit or is already benefitting some while others may die as usual. 11. The same Niger Delta men and women that are deprived education and meaningful developmental projects over time, most of whom are now over 40years of age without any light of civilisation, are now being branded as 'stack illitrates and militants'. 12. Successive governments in Nigeria chose the option of 'Divide and rule', bribe few to fight the rest in the less developed areas of Nigeria. I think it is the opportunists and cowards who are presently benefitting from the corrupt governance, not necessarily being part of government but reaping some values in an environment provided by the grave yard peace in Nigeria, that are condeming the MEND. What is keeping some people in business is the same thing that is crushing others, hence there cannot be balance in our opinions. I don't support the killing of innocent people by MEND as much as I don't support the killing of innocent people of the Niger Delta by Nigeria through the army. If the FGN succeeds in suppressing MEND as it did to Biafra and Nigeria still remains one as some are praying, it is just a matter of time, a much stronger and more sophisticated force will yet emerge in the near. That 'Nigeria is one under the level of selective injustice, general non performance of its leaders who are said 'must be there, and lack of true federalism' is the worst lie to be told or believed by anyone. |
Bosun Awoniyi
said:
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... Dear Lawson Honestly, I am appreciate your guesswork on saharareporters. But i still don't want to beleive you are a Nigerian. Our Country Nigeria is dead, we need great and determine men of courage who would bring the hope of better tommorrow and all you could offer is Nigeria will disintegrate or transform into a confederation. I tell you if this are your sincere wishes you are a liar. God is still very much alive. the records are there for us a children of God. We must come together and pray against every evil doer in this nation. There is no place like Nigeria, this is God's own country not America. Even, my invisible mentor sowore's website exposes the corrupt, this is a way of rebranding Nigeria, not through Dora's style. Your guesswork on saharareporters is assasianting. bye |
osagieoscar asemota
said:
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... Godbless this revealation through howard Lawson, and suscriber- yusuf ndanusa of what to expect after the temporary seize fire that the northern power violators are presently offering and undergoing. The stage is now set for the Youths fulfilment of our father dream-to reposses what originally belong to Us and our Children's future! Let every Youth in Nigeria, especially those in the southern-NigerDelta Axis, rise and stand behind Hurricane Moses that is producing another Hurricane brother Josua, that will see us to a New Nigerian autonomous Federal States, where true African democrazy exist in the interest of all stakeholders! |
Bagudu
said:
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... I think the battle line have been drawn between the Government and MEND. I pray MEND is not compromised or politicize by James Ibori and Co. More so, I do not wish Nigeria should be disintergrete, but practise a TRUE FEDERALISM as that is the way forward. The Northern Leader should understand, that its not business as usual and face the truth in honesty and humanity. May God bless Nigeria and see the MEND BOYS through this horrible time. |
otherwise
said:
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... Or indeed, something may be sorted out as the children of God pray for the wisdom to handle this situation and for God's will to be done. We may not fail afterall and the writer may never be able to say 'I told you so'. If we spend the energy we spend anticipating evil on rebuilding our country, we might just make it. God rules in the affairs of men, never say never. This may be the birthing of the change we've been waiting for. This is what I pay for through Christ, my Lord. Amen! |
Temba Khumalo
said:
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... THE BLOOD OF ABEL SPEAKS FROM THE GROUND AGAINST CAIN SO THE BLOOD OF THE IGBOS,IJAWS,IBIBIOS, EFIK, ANNANGS AND ALL PEOPLE OF EASTERN REGION THAT WERE MURDERED AND THE FOETUS THAT WERE CRUSHED TO DEATH AT KADUNA TRAIN STATION WILL CONTINUE TO SPEAK AGAINST NIGERIA AND THERE WILL NEVER BE PEACE OR PROGRESS IN NIGERIA. AFTER NIGER DELTA ANOTHER ONE WILL SPRING UP BECAUSE THE WRATH OF GOD IS LOOSED ON NIGERIA. |
fredibe
said:
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... NIGERIA WILL COME TO PASS,THAT IS MY PRAYER.KEEPING NIGERIA ALIVE IS LIKE KEEPING TYRANNY AND CORRUPTION ALIVE,THE NEW GENERATION MUST NOT COME ACROSS THE NAMES KNOWN AS NIGERIAN LOOTER EG IBB'S,OBJ'S,ABUBAKA'S,HAUSA AND FULANI SO CALL MAFIA MY FOOT. LET THE L & K MAFIA GO AND SEE HOW OTHER MAFIAS DEVELOP THERE COMMUNITY AND TOWN,OURS ARE JUST EVIL,EVIL THEY LOVE AND THEY WILL ALL DIE WITH IT,SO BE IT. |
Knockout
said:
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... It is irrational for anybody to think that the problem with Nigeria lies with one single ethnic group as you have hihglighted in your prognosis. However, since there appears so much hatred towards the northern part of the country, disintegration might just be tilted to favour that part of the country. As you are aware, major investment are ongoing around the world in seeking alternative sources of energy. While i admit that this might not fully materialize in our lifetime, the northern part of the country might just pull out of this suppose disintergration much stronger than the rest of the country. It irritates me when i read how irrational nigerians can be when it comes to religion and ethnicity and this is the main reason why we are so under-developed. We seem to think our tribe has the monopoly of decency, morality etc while the other tribe is holding us down from reaching our full potentials. This is pure prejudice fuel by an incompetent political class who used such agendas to hide and decieve their electorates. If it comes to disintergration for people to realise this, then so be it. After the end of Nigeria ( i hope it doesnt come to this), i pray some of us are issued visas to visit our friends and relatives. I know that they are people such as myself who believe in the unity of this country and who have over the years integrated to the extent that almost everywhere is considered home. |
AGABA JOHN ODEH
said:
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... I strongly disagree with Dr. Howard Lawson about his analysis on the post Niger Delter crisis. Is he a prophet of Doom,let him com back home and see the reality on ground and stop fueling the crisis from far away New York.At this stage of the peace building via amnesty,what every peace loving Nigerian should be asking for is to insist that the federal government MUST abide by the agreement (amnesty),ensure quick development of the region,rehabilitate and reform the militants and ensure the money budgeted for the peace process does not enter wrong pocket as the usual practice. God bless Nigeria. |
Patrick.
said:
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... The issues are very simple. The children of the marriage between 'the northern Prince and the Southern Lady of means" contracted in 1913 by Lord Lugard based on the memo of the same year by Lord Harcourt (Port Harcourt city is named after this gentleman--note the irony) have now grown up and are seei g the injustice in the whole marriage. They are requesting a renegotiation of the "terms" of the marital arrangement. It is either this or what happens to mariages of this sort. We need to re-visit the terms of that 1913 document. |
Laide Abayo
said:
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... ALLAH WILL NOT CHANGE THE CONDITION OF PEOPLE UNTIL THEY CHANGE WHAT IS IN THEIR MINDS. THE WAY FORWARD LIES IN OUR HAND, THERE IS FOR REVOLUTION OF MIND ESPECIALLY AMONG THE YOUTH WHO ARE THE FUTURE LEADERS. MAY ALLAH SAVE US FROM THESE UNREPENTANT RULERS. |
ph²
said:
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... i do not support Nigeria disintegrating, i dont pray for it under any cercumstance. But i support a One Nigeria under true fedralism. Let every region control their own resources and develop according to their own pace. But above all, let the will of GOD Almighty be done concerning this nation. |
Tony Adams
said:
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... Yusuf , your analysis is capable of making somebody who loves Nigeria to shed tears . Really , Nigeria as one Nigeria is beautiful . If it disintegrates as everything really points to that direction , it will definitely be painfull to every lover of beauty .And GOD will not be happy with any person who has tasted power at any level in Nigeria since 1960 to date . Our leaders have not done well atall   |
Yusuf N'danusa
said:
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... In 2005-2006, The then Nigerian military-civilian head of State Olusegun Obasanjo appealed to the United States to classify the Niger Delta Militants as terrorists but when closely watched, the United States found out through many intelligence sources that what was going on in Nigeria's oil producing areas was nothing close to terrorism but a reaction by a people who are being marginalized and oppressed by successive regimes since 1960 to date. Even George Bush, that vile monster that led the United States to loosing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan adviced Umaru Y'aradua to embark on a massive development of the Niger Delta and that led to the awarding of the contract for the East-West highway project to Julius Berger. Umaru Y'aradua made many appeals to have Niger Delta classified as economic terrorists against the United States and Britain just like his junior minister in the internal affairs openly stated few weeks ago before a visiting British defence officer. Many times they've made effort to make terrorists out of Freedom Fighters in the East of the Niger and many times, they have failed. Let me also remind you just in case you do not know or you forgot, during the Nigeria-Biafra civil war, Britain and Arab countries actually fought on the side of Nigeria yet that war lasted for almost three years. Nigeria do not have an army but they have a crooked oligarchy led force that knows nothing other than islamization drive to have the Koran dipped in the Niger. This has always been the goal of the Islamic project in Nigeria. I totally disagree with you on the Russian connection since the 'bear' President Medveded already rushed to Abuja to sign oil & gas contract believing that the rouges at Abuja are in control. Britain and the United States as well as China and any other country for that matter will not come to the rescue of anyone. Our destiny is in our own hands and the only way the oppressed can deal with the challenges they face, would be to hunt the hunters and seek their head. The rest of Africa is eagerly waiting and watching how things develop in the Niger Delta as this will help them reshape their destinies. Africa is going to be playing a pivotal role in the shape of things in no distant future and this reshaping is beginning to manifest in the Niger Delta. I have spoken with many intelligence analysts from around the world and their conclusion is that Nigeria is done. It is just a matter of time before that which is hidden comes to light. Years ago the United States through John Negroponte as their UN Ambassador stated that Nigeria is going to disintergrate but they never told us how it will all come to happen but right now, we are all living witnesses to how 'a promising giant country' can turn out to be an embarrassing nightmare. |
vaughan
said:
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... great guesswork,by the time all is done,alternative sources of energy would have taken over(check out how the oil majors are investing heavily in biodiesels and gas from algae,sugarcane etc and the EU project to harness substantial energy from the sahara desert to power 15% of europe in few years from now)the resource curse or plaque and environmental devastation would have wiped out the niger-delta and we are back to square.This agitation should have started and sustained since.I think the niger delta could negotiate for better bargain within the nigerian system.those countries have nothing to offer except their permanent interests.yours nigerianly. |
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