Nigerian President Umaru Yar'Adua has returned back to the country, but by all indications (both confidential and public) his complicated kidney diseases and associated cardio vascular illnesses have worsened. Yar'Adua, probably fearing that he may have to again be hospitalized in coming weeks, is moving to assert control over his succession. On 8 September he moved to dismiss the very influential head of the country's bureaucracy, the Secretary General of the Federation, Baba Gana Kingibe f or allegedly plotting with ex-senior military leaders to oust Yar'Adua. Prior to his extended trip to Saudi Arabia, he summarily retired over two dozen senior military officers and replaced the entire top military brass. Yar'Adua, his powerful wife and inner circle want a young reform-minded northerner to replace him were he to leave office, while the country's influential northern Muslim ex-military leadership wants one of their own in the presidency.
Nigeria's influential northern Muslim elites are deadlocked over how to tackle the political consequences of the eroding health of President Umaru Yar'Adua. Upon returning unceremoniously from Saudi Arabia where he went to seek medical help for a kidney related illnesses, Yar'Adua has moved to dismiss the head of the country's bureaucracy, the Secretary General of the Federation, Baba Gana Kingibe. Kingibe, a veteran political leader and a former popular vice presidential candidate was allegedly plotting with the country's influential northern Muslim former military rulers to find a way of protecting pan-northern interests when Yar'Adua leaves office due to his ill health. This scenario would have likely seen Kingibe as Vice President pulling President Goodluck Jonathan's strings until the next election year in 2011 with Kingibe becoming the leading northern Muslim candidate. Yar'Adua has replaced Kingibe with his loyal defense minister Yayale Ahmed, who just two weeks ago helped reshuffle the entire top echelon of the country's top military brass.
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Yar'Adua, his indefatigable wife Turai, and some of his closest aides want to manage any potential succession to him. They would prefer another young reform-minded northern Muslim to replace Yar'Adua, rather than turn back power to the old guard and the cabal of ex-military leaders who have dominated Nigerian political life for three decades. With the exception of former president Olusegun Obasanjo, all of Nigeria's very influential ex-military leaders are northerners; this powerful northern elite views Yar'Adua's health decline as an opportunity to re-take executive control.
While article 146 of the Nigerian Constitution clearly provides for Vice President Gooluck Jonathan taking the reins if Yar'Adua were to step down or die in office, other provisions of the constitution intimates that a new general election be held within three months of the senate president assuming the now vacant vice presidency. Kingibe, who was just dismissed, is believed to have been in secret discussions with other senior northern Muslim elites on how to prevent thread this needle. Other suspicions have centered on Kingibe's supposed attempt to prepare the ground for getting the Nigerian cabinet (Federal Executive Council) to essentially declare Yar'Adaua medically incompetent as per Article 144 of the Nigerian Constitution. Either way, the constitutional confusion has made matters worse.
Yar'Adua's marked departure from the lockstep stance expected of him by mentor and kingmaker Obasanjo has resulted in a ruling party split into three distinct groups: Yar'Adua's faction, Obasanjo's now-jilted faction of southern elite, and the northern elite's assembly of powerful ex-generals headed by former military head of state Ibrahim Babangida. With Obasanjo influence on the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) now all but checkmated, the Babangida group wants to position itself to re-take the PDP once Yar'Adua has been forced to step down or dies.
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The lack of consensus by northern Muslim elites over how to replace Yar'Adua to safeguard northern Muslim interests means that the succession to Yar'Adua may very well bring the country's competing power blocks into serious conflict.
Sebastian Spio-Garbrah
Analyst, Middle East and Africa
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