May 30, 2010
There are a lot of inconsistent statements, outright falsehood and terrible lies that are flying around, especially from politicians regarding the issue of the zoning arrangement by which the presidency is expected to oscillate between the northern and the southern regions of Nigeria. Many have taken very dubious and dishonest positions based on where their political advantages lie most or what will enhance their economic fortunes. The tragedy about this issue amongst politicians is the lack of consistency in advocating their beliefs about this issue of zoning.
There are a lot of inconsistent statements, outright falsehood and terrible lies that are flying around, especially from politicians regarding the issue of the zoning arrangement by which the presidency is expected to oscillate between the northern and the southern regions of Nigeria. Many have taken very dubious and dishonest positions based on where their political advantages lie most or what will enhance their economic fortunes. The tragedy about this issue amongst politicians is the lack of consistency in advocating their beliefs about this issue of zoning.
For some who oppose Jonathan’s bid, it is all about seeking the advantage of the ticket going to the North and enhancing their chance to have a shot at the presidency. For some who support Jonathan, it is all about Any Government in Power (AGIP), and seeking the face of Jonathan to get political advantages, contracts and allocation oil blocks. However for some others, it is all about ethnic sentiments and blind support for the region from which they come.
So in all of these, where does the truth lie? How can we sift through this cacophony of voices to decipher between truth and falsehood, between altruism and selfishness? The answer lies in taking a historical look at the issue of zoning and demanding and insisting on consistency from the various actors in this political high-drama.
Let me start by declaring that I am not opposed to Jonathan’s bid to contest for the presidency. I am not also enthusiastic about it because I cherish the higher ideals of true democracy, free and fair elections and good governance over and above zoning formula and ethnic sentiments. In other words, I will not be blinded by support for one of my own and then care less about how he wins the election and how he gets elected. It is only when one has the mental capacity to detach oneself from blind and emotional politics that he can make an unbiased analysis of issues.
The second declaration I also wish to make before my analyses begin, is that PERSONALLY, I do not like the zoning formula because it prevents the nation from throwing up its best and it is has the potential of completely wiping out the rights of a whole generation from a region to aspire to the highest office. Let me explain this: if you allocate eight years of the presidency to each of the six regions in Nigeria, it will take every forty years for the presidency to rotate and come back to a particular region. Going by our constitution, which makes it mandatory for a presidential candidate for have attained the age of forty years, it would mean that all the young, brilliant men in their thirties who come from a particular region at the time the presidency would rotate to that region, would not have the chance to aspire again to that office until they are in their seventies when the presidency would rotate again to that region and when they may be too old to contest for the office again. This is totally unacceptable in a democracy.
But in a country like ours with so many ethnic groups, many of whom are minorities, how do you give all parts of the country a sense of belonging if you don’t impose a deliberate zoning formula that gives every part of the country a chance to have a shot at the presidency? This, of course, is the wisdom behind the adoption of the zoning system by politicians which clearly indicates that it is not entirely a stupid idea. But unfortunately, it is the same politicians that are singing discordant tunes over the same issue that they have so well propagated in the past, which is a clear indication that something, somewhere is wrong. So my analysis will be based on holding politicians accountable by their own standards.
Firstly, for those politicians who are shouting to the roof tops that there is nothing like a zoning formula and that it is antithetical to democracy, they forget that Jonathan is a complete product of a zoning formula. No, I don’t think they have forgotten. They are just being dubious and dishonest. If the truth must be told, before the 2007 elections, it was the South-South leaders, elders and politicians that cried out the most about failure of one of their own to get the presidency since 1960 and they mounted billboard and placards all over the country campaigning for rotation of the presidency to the South-South.
It is as a result of such campaigns and struggles that the vice presidency was finally ‘zoned’ to the South-South. So how come it is the same elders, politicians and leaders of the South-South that are now at the fore front of campaigning that zoning should be abolished? Is it because Jonathan is now President? It resembles the case of a greedy child amongst his play group who would always hold on tight to the ball whenever it is played to him and would not want to release it for the ball to be played around by the group. When these leaders were campaigning for power shift to the south, they forgot about the existence of the constitution. Now they quote chapters and sections of the constitution more than anybody else to prove that there is nothing like zoning.
So, whilst I hate zoning, I will not find myself in the same boat with such leaders and elders because they are mere opportunists who want to take advantage of a Jonathan presidency and are indifferent to the greater good of the Nigerian nation. I say this because, an insistence or abolition of zoning by minority groups because of the opportunity of Jonathan becoming president for eight years is tantamount to selling the right of the presidency having to rotate to the minorities at regular intervals for a pot of porridge. That pot of porridge is the prospect of Jonathan being president for eight years.
Now the million-dollar-question: supposing Jonathan is defeated at the general election by the combined votes of the majority ethnic groups in the country, where does that leave our new-found philosophy of ‘no- zoning’ as those from the south-south? You see, our expectations that Jonathan will be president for the next eight years as from 2011 have been conditioned by our warped expectation that the President in power must always rig the election in his favour. Yet we all cry electoral reforms and free and fair elections. We are just a dubious and dishonest set of people, and the politicians are the ones that have brought us to this sorry pass.
For those politicians from the North who are now crying wolf more than the wolf itself, they should also remember that none of them ever spoke out if favour of rotational presidency all years when the North had always been in power. How come we did not hear the voices of these northern elements when, in 2003 certain politicians where propping out the likes of Atiku Abubakar, Muhammadu Buhari and many other northern presidential aspirants to run against Obasanjo who had done only four years at that time and had not completed the full eight years that the northerners are now insisting they must have? That is how dubious the northern elders and leaders have been on this issue of zoning.
So as a nation and as a people, we are facing crass inconsistency by the ruling elite and by the people of this country. Another example of this inconsistency is that over the years, the South had always kicked against the principle of federal character in admission into Unity schools and Universities and promotions in the civil service and other government departments just because the South is at an advantage in terms of education. But in the same vein, the South (until the Jonathan presidency) had been campaigning for ‘power rotation’ which is ‘federal character’ in political terms, just because the South had been at a disadvantage politically. The opposite situation applies to the Northern region that had always supported ‘federal character’ in the civil service and admission into schools and opposed power rotation when it was enjoying power.
So where do we go from here? It is very simple and straight forward. There is no better time in the history of this country for us to now sit down, take a referendum on the issue of zoning and adopt a consistent policy in respect of this vexed issue. I say there is no better time because, now that both regions have tasted the two sides of the coin regarding zoning, the regions would be expected to vote on a long-term principle and not for short-term gains. It is also time for the result of such a referendum (whichever way it goes) to be firmly entrenched in our constitution. That way, we shall avoid these inconsistencies and lies we have been hearing from politicians in the last few weeks of the Jonathan presidency.
If we think the referendum is a long-term measure, which may not be easy to achieve, then as a short-term measure (and if we take it for granted as a nation that the PDP will rig itself into power again in 2011) then the leadership of the PDP will have to sit down and decide whether Jonathan should run as President in 2011 (because of the power and advantage of incumbency) on an ALTERED ZONING FORMULA or on an ABOLISHED ZONING FORMULA. In other words, if Jonathan becomes President in 2011 and for the next eight years, then the agreement should be that power should rotate back to the north for another sixteen years after Jonathan (that is Obasanjo’s eight years plus Jonathan’s eight years). This is what I called the ALTERED ZONING FORMULA.
But if the decision is to abolish the zoning formula, that would be fine, but no region would have the right to complain tomorrow that power has failed to rotate to its region. If we vote for merit over and above zoning, then we should be prepared to stick by that and jettison our regional sentiments.
For some who oppose Jonathan’s bid, it is all about seeking the advantage of the ticket going to the North and enhancing their chance to have a shot at the presidency. For some who support Jonathan, it is all about Any Government in Power (AGIP), and seeking the face of Jonathan to get political advantages, contracts and allocation oil blocks. However for some others, it is all about ethnic sentiments and blind support for the region from which they come.
So in all of these, where does the truth lie? How can we sift through this cacophony of voices to decipher between truth and falsehood, between altruism and selfishness? The answer lies in taking a historical look at the issue of zoning and demanding and insisting on consistency from the various actors in this political high-drama.
Let me start by declaring that I am not opposed to Jonathan’s bid to contest for the presidency. I am not also enthusiastic about it because I cherish the higher ideals of true democracy, free and fair elections and good governance over and above zoning formula and ethnic sentiments. In other words, I will not be blinded by support for one of my own and then care less about how he wins the election and how he gets elected. It is only when one has the mental capacity to detach oneself from blind and emotional politics that he can make an unbiased analysis of issues.
The second declaration I also wish to make before my analyses begin, is that PERSONALLY, I do not like the zoning formula because it prevents the nation from throwing up its best and it is has the potential of completely wiping out the rights of a whole generation from a region to aspire to the highest office. Let me explain this: if you allocate eight years of the presidency to each of the six regions in Nigeria, it will take every forty years for the presidency to rotate and come back to a particular region. Going by our constitution, which makes it mandatory for a presidential candidate for have attained the age of forty years, it would mean that all the young, brilliant men in their thirties who come from a particular region at the time the presidency would rotate to that region, would not have the chance to aspire again to that office until they are in their seventies when the presidency would rotate again to that region and when they may be too old to contest for the office again. This is totally unacceptable in a democracy.
But in a country like ours with so many ethnic groups, many of whom are minorities, how do you give all parts of the country a sense of belonging if you don’t impose a deliberate zoning formula that gives every part of the country a chance to have a shot at the presidency? This, of course, is the wisdom behind the adoption of the zoning system by politicians which clearly indicates that it is not entirely a stupid idea. But unfortunately, it is the same politicians that are singing discordant tunes over the same issue that they have so well propagated in the past, which is a clear indication that something, somewhere is wrong. So my analysis will be based on holding politicians accountable by their own standards.
Firstly, for those politicians who are shouting to the roof tops that there is nothing like a zoning formula and that it is antithetical to democracy, they forget that Jonathan is a complete product of a zoning formula. No, I don’t think they have forgotten. They are just being dubious and dishonest. If the truth must be told, before the 2007 elections, it was the South-South leaders, elders and politicians that cried out the most about failure of one of their own to get the presidency since 1960 and they mounted billboard and placards all over the country campaigning for rotation of the presidency to the South-South.
It is as a result of such campaigns and struggles that the vice presidency was finally ‘zoned’ to the South-South. So how come it is the same elders, politicians and leaders of the South-South that are now at the fore front of campaigning that zoning should be abolished? Is it because Jonathan is now President? It resembles the case of a greedy child amongst his play group who would always hold on tight to the ball whenever it is played to him and would not want to release it for the ball to be played around by the group. When these leaders were campaigning for power shift to the south, they forgot about the existence of the constitution. Now they quote chapters and sections of the constitution more than anybody else to prove that there is nothing like zoning.
So, whilst I hate zoning, I will not find myself in the same boat with such leaders and elders because they are mere opportunists who want to take advantage of a Jonathan presidency and are indifferent to the greater good of the Nigerian nation. I say this because, an insistence or abolition of zoning by minority groups because of the opportunity of Jonathan becoming president for eight years is tantamount to selling the right of the presidency having to rotate to the minorities at regular intervals for a pot of porridge. That pot of porridge is the prospect of Jonathan being president for eight years.
Now the million-dollar-question: supposing Jonathan is defeated at the general election by the combined votes of the majority ethnic groups in the country, where does that leave our new-found philosophy of ‘no- zoning’ as those from the south-south? You see, our expectations that Jonathan will be president for the next eight years as from 2011 have been conditioned by our warped expectation that the President in power must always rig the election in his favour. Yet we all cry electoral reforms and free and fair elections. We are just a dubious and dishonest set of people, and the politicians are the ones that have brought us to this sorry pass.
For those politicians from the North who are now crying wolf more than the wolf itself, they should also remember that none of them ever spoke out if favour of rotational presidency all years when the North had always been in power. How come we did not hear the voices of these northern elements when, in 2003 certain politicians where propping out the likes of Atiku Abubakar, Muhammadu Buhari and many other northern presidential aspirants to run against Obasanjo who had done only four years at that time and had not completed the full eight years that the northerners are now insisting they must have? That is how dubious the northern elders and leaders have been on this issue of zoning.
So as a nation and as a people, we are facing crass inconsistency by the ruling elite and by the people of this country. Another example of this inconsistency is that over the years, the South had always kicked against the principle of federal character in admission into Unity schools and Universities and promotions in the civil service and other government departments just because the South is at an advantage in terms of education. But in the same vein, the South (until the Jonathan presidency) had been campaigning for ‘power rotation’ which is ‘federal character’ in political terms, just because the South had been at a disadvantage politically. The opposite situation applies to the Northern region that had always supported ‘federal character’ in the civil service and admission into schools and opposed power rotation when it was enjoying power.
So where do we go from here? It is very simple and straight forward. There is no better time in the history of this country for us to now sit down, take a referendum on the issue of zoning and adopt a consistent policy in respect of this vexed issue. I say there is no better time because, now that both regions have tasted the two sides of the coin regarding zoning, the regions would be expected to vote on a long-term principle and not for short-term gains. It is also time for the result of such a referendum (whichever way it goes) to be firmly entrenched in our constitution. That way, we shall avoid these inconsistencies and lies we have been hearing from politicians in the last few weeks of the Jonathan presidency.
If we think the referendum is a long-term measure, which may not be easy to achieve, then as a short-term measure (and if we take it for granted as a nation that the PDP will rig itself into power again in 2011) then the leadership of the PDP will have to sit down and decide whether Jonathan should run as President in 2011 (because of the power and advantage of incumbency) on an ALTERED ZONING FORMULA or on an ABOLISHED ZONING FORMULA. In other words, if Jonathan becomes President in 2011 and for the next eight years, then the agreement should be that power should rotate back to the north for another sixteen years after Jonathan (that is Obasanjo’s eight years plus Jonathan’s eight years). This is what I called the ALTERED ZONING FORMULA.
But if the decision is to abolish the zoning formula, that would be fine, but no region would have the right to complain tomorrow that power has failed to rotate to its region. If we vote for merit over and above zoning, then we should be prepared to stick by that and jettison our regional sentiments.
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