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Ambassador John Campbell’s Country – A Reply To ‘Nigeria On The Brink- What Happens If The 2011 Elections Fail?’

September 13, 2010

I must admit that out of respect, I felt very reluctant to join issues with an accomplished diplomat of Ambassador John Campbell’s standing. But the minor misinformation contained in his recent article, ‘Nigeria on the brink- what happens if the 2011elections fail?’ published in SaharaReporters and Nigeria village Square websites are too weighty and consequential to be ignored. The article in sum reduced the 2011 election as simply an impending clash between the Christian south and Muslim north of Nigeria and sadly dwelt on the religious consequences of the said election rather than ways of guaranteeing its credibility.

I must admit that out of respect, I felt very reluctant to join issues with an accomplished diplomat of Ambassador John Campbell’s standing. But the minor misinformation contained in his recent article, ‘Nigeria on the brink- what happens if the 2011elections fail?’ published in SaharaReporters and Nigeria village Square websites are too weighty and consequential to be ignored. The article in sum reduced the 2011 election as simply an impending clash between the Christian south and Muslim north of Nigeria and sadly dwelt on the religious consequences of the said election rather than ways of guaranteeing its credibility.

It needs to be emphasised that as a former U.S ambassador to Nigeria and a distinguished scholar on Nigerian and African affairs, Campbell is rightly considered an expert on Nigerian issues by both policy makers and mass media in the U.S and Europe. Since expert opinions usually guides western intervention in the African politics, it is in the interest of the masses of our nation that Campbell tells our story accurately, in a manner that uplifts and empowers our people rather than perpetuate the myths that benefit only the criminal elites.

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Such inaccuracies usually results in ethno-religous profiling of Nigerians and their challenges and blurs the real issues facing the ordinary man in the street. As a Nigerian, I am worried about some of the submissions made by Campbell in the above mentioned piece and I beg for liberty to interrogate just two of them.

The myths

1.    That Nigeria is divided between the Muslim north and Christian south.
Like many Nigerians, I am curious about this Campbell’s map, the John Campbell’s country. One will like to know where the boundaries of the Christian south and Muslim north begin and end.  And perhaps more importantly, who are these peoples of the Christian south and Muslim north?

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Let’s first look at the Christian south. Southern Nigeria is made up of seventeen states and zoned into three geopolitical regions. While ten of these southern states ( Abia, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Enugu, Imo and Rivers ) could be fairly argued to be populated predominantly by Christians. The rest (Edo, Ekiti, Lagos, Ondo, Oyo, Ogun and Osun states) have either majority Muslim population or large Muslim minority running into millions. The necessary question that follows therefore is; where in Campbell’s map could we place the millions of Muslims in the seven states of the ‘Christian south’? Are Governors Adams Oshiomhole and Babatunde Fashola of Edo and Lagos state respectively, less southerners because they are Muslims rulings states in Campbell’s Christian south?

In fact, a similar situation exists in the ‘Muslim north’ composed of nineteen states. Only ten of these states (Kwara,Kano, Kastina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Borno, Jigawa, Zamfara, Yobe and Gombe) are indisputably, predominantly populated by Muslims. While the rest (Plateau, Benue, Nassarwa, Kogi, Niger, Taraba, Adamawa, Bauchi , Kaduna and Niger states) are  either predominantly Christian populated states or states with large Christian minority running into millions.
It is important to mention that in some states both in the north and south of Nigeria; the Christian and Muslim population are almost evenly split. For example, Ogun state in the south and Kaduna state in the north. More so, where do we place the Christians of northern Nigeria in Campbell’s Muslim north? Are Governors Ibrahim Yakowa and Gabriel Suswan of Kaduna and Benue state respectively, less northerners because they are Christians ruling states in Campbell’s Muslim north?

 It will be fair to say that it is disrespectful to invent map that miscategorise these people of different religions or pretend that they do not exist or are too insignificant to be recognised.

The myth of a Christian south and Muslim north may suit the narrative of Nigeria’s corrupt elite like Ibrahim Babangida, who are mostly career tribal and religious agitators but it remains only a myth not supported by any scintilla of empirical facts and it is important that experts of Campbell’s stature do not legitimise these dangerous falsehoods.

The fact is that neither the north nor the south of Nigeria enjoys religious homogeneity. To argue otherwise, therefore is to be disingenuous.
2.    The myth that Christians won’t vote Muslims or Muslims won’t vote Christians.

Reading through Campbell’s article, one may easily come away with the notion of a country divided among Muslims and Christians and whose citizens will never vote for people of different faith. In reality, this is far from the truth and it’s not supported by recent history or fact.  Let’s consider the two presidential elections of 1979 and 1993 widely considered to be credible elections. In the 1979 election that produced a northern Muslim as President, Shehu Shagari won by winning states in the supposedly Christian south. Again in the 1993 election, Moshood Abiola, a southern Muslim won overwhelmingly in the south and north, defeating his lone opponent, a Muslim northerner in his own northern state of Kano. It is important to mention that even Abiola’s decision to run on a Muslim –Muslim ticket did not alienate him from the majority of the Christian south.

At the state level, there is strong evidence to suggest that where elections have been relatively credible, candidates from religious minorities have won elections. For example, Edo state in the south (2007) and Adamawa state in the north (2003).

Thus, it will be unfair to describe Nigerian politics in a manner that inadvertently paints Nigerians as religious bigots who are unable to look beyond religion in their political lives. Nigerians have demonstrated time and time again that if given the chance to vote in a free and fair election, that religion is not the deciding factor and it is important that experts like Campbell accord them due credit for that. It is no coincidence that one of the presidential hopefuls, Nuhu Ribadu, mentioned by Campbell draws louder support from the south, even though he is a Muslim northerner.

Having said all the above, it will be at least naive for one to assume that some usual suspects will not attempt to exploit religious tensions that exists among some communities in Nigeria as a political tool in negotiating power. Plans may have already been hatched by some criminal element in the political class to foment trouble in the flash points of our nation, where age long rivalry dating even beyond colonial rule, provide a ready excuse for violence. They may well decide to import mercenaries from our porous borders with Niger and Chad republics as locals witnessed in Kano state in 2007 elections.

But the emphasis should not just be about how to appease these criminal elements from terrorising Nigerians in 2011. The emphasis one wanted to hear from Campbell, is on how Nigeria can conduct a presidential election that will be credible and acceptable by Nigerians irrespective of region or religion.
There is no doubt at all, that many of these clowns masquerading as ethnic or religious champions are discredited characters in their region and religion and stand no chance in any credible poll. The United States and International community could help us in demystifying them by insisting that 2011 election must be credible. They could do this not just by condemning bad electoral practices but imposing sanctions on individuals like Maurice Iwu, whose conduct in 2007 elections bordered on brigandage. They could help liberate the Nigerian people from the slavery of ignorance by encouraging the current boss of INEC to conduct a credible poll.

I have avoided the annoying anthem that is now a recurring decimal in any foreign news reports on Nigeria- ‘power is rotated between north and south of Nigeria’.  While it is really distressful that a one off arrangement crafted by the most widely despised political party peopled by the worst specimen of politicians that any country could be unfortunate to have, now suffices as the Nigerian constitution, at least according to the foreign media. The major concern of any Nigerian and lovers of Nigeria should be a worldwide insistence that the votes of ordinary Nigerians must count in 2011. Not just a discourse on how to save Nigerians from an over hyped religious war.  Nigerians do not need what Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie, a celebrated Nigerian writer, called ‘a kind of well meaning, patronising pity’ from the international community. Nigerians need a partnership that will assist them in throwing off the shackles of the corrupt and discredited ethno-religious champions. That is where the true and enduring stability of Nigeria lies and not in the midnight political dealings of criminal elites.


AZU ROBERT- MARY

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