Partners International Foundation Releases Initial Assessment Report On The Proliferation of Improvised Explosive Devices in Nigeria

Partners International Foundation Releases Initial Assessment Report on the Proliferation of Improvised Explosive Devices in Nigeria and the Niger Delta Issues Warning but Identifies Opportunities for Peace

September 2010 Report Predicted the Current Wave of Violence - Sounded an Ominous Warning but Identified a Real Opportunity for Peace and Reconciliation

Yorktown, Virginia – Partners International Foundation today released its Initial assessment report on the proliferation of Improvised explosive Devices (IEDs) in Nigeria and conflict in the Niger Delta.  Originally completed in September 2010, Partners International Foundation (PIF) held back full release while circulating the report to key Nigerian stakeholders. The report warned of a new round of violence and bombing that eventually began with four simultaneous IEDs detonated on October 1, 2010 during Nigeria’s 50th Anniversary Celebration.
 
There are over 300 IED incidents every month around the world and pose a significant threat to global security, stability, sustainable development, human rights, and humanitarian operations. In Nigeria IEDs have grown into a national epidemic with incidents almost daily.

Originally completed and distributed to key Nigerian government leaders in September 2010, prior to the current epidemic, the report specifically documented concerns by former militants and others of the bombings and ethnic violence that is rampant today.
 
“While they did not speak for all former militants, almost all of those we spoke with during the assessment were concerned about the rise of radical elements within their group and very worried violence would return,” said Robert Morris, PIF’s Founder and President.  Morris, a highly decorated retired United States Army Colonel with over 31 Years active duty service travelled to Nigeria at his own expense to conduct the assessment and try to help prevent the proliferation of IEDs.

One former militant in particular, Ebiware Edmund, expressed deep concern that radical factions influenced by elements outside Nigeria were mobilizing to begin a new wave of violence. He warned these groups were fighting for control against former militant groups against leaders who took the amnesty and promoted the non-violent approach to reconciliation.  While he and other former militants were critical of the way in which the amnesty program operated, there was general support for the President’s attempt at reconciliation. Edmund openly worried that if an approach such as the PIF proposal was not adopted more militant factions would gain control and violence would come back worse than before. He was eager to help stop the wave of bombings and other violence he felt was coming.  PIF saw this level of concern as important.

“We wanted to get information to those who could act on it and work with the former militants sincere about reconciliation” said Morris. “ – unfortunately, their concerns were genuine.”

Morris stresses that actions and offers such as Edmund’s are important and must be supported, which is why PIF provided the results of their assessment to Timi Alaibe, Governor Amaechi and soon after their assessment in August 2010.

“Although he had no direct knowledge of any impending attacks, this young man’s brave actions, at risk of his own safety, show a shift from bad bonding social capital to positive bonding social capital, creating the opportunity to eliminate root causes that foster and maintain these IED networks. Unfortunately, “ adds Morris, “When something bad happens many politicians immediately go after those who came forward instead of recognizing them for their courage.  It’s our hope this will not occur with Edmund and those like him.”

As of the report’s release Morris is unable to confirm Edmund’s situation in Nigeria after the bombings and violence he so emphatically warned of and tried to prevent.

Morris is quick to point out that even before the PIF assessment there were warnings of the growing IED threat.

The most significant of these according to PIF is Dr. Timiebi Koripamo-Agary, Executive Director of Gender Rights Advancement and Development (GRAND) and Media Coordinator of President Jonathan's Amnesty Program. Agary is highly respected by both former militants and many in the Nigerian government.  She was the first to identify the growing threat of IEDs in Nigeria. It was Agary who convinced PIF to come to Nigeria and do the assessment.

“What President Jonathan needs to know is that long before the events of October 1, 2010 and the current epidemic of violence people - Nigerians and a few of their American partners – had the vision to look ahead to was going to happen. They were ignored and now especially as the IED threat is now spreading nationwide.” 

Morris also adds: “Dr. Agary’s highly respected position as a truly neutral party in mediating with militants and activists can be a great asset in stopping the now escalating violence. If fact, there is much to support that acting on her counsel when she first raised these issues would have prevented the current unnecessary deaths and destruction.”

The purpose of PIF’s assessment was to determine the feasibility of conducting a pilot project in the Niger Delta to eliminate the root causes of IEDs using PIF’s Capabilities Analysis and Performance Strategy (CAPS). 

PIF’s CAPS solution is an innovative approach to identify and eliminate the root causes of IEDs. Locally partnered and led. CAPS uses seven capital forms (Political, Natural, Economic, Infrastructure, Cultural, Social, and Human) building and maintaining stability and security through sustainable livelihoods and development.

The proposed PIF solution will: 1) Eliminate the advantage violators receive from using illicit IEDs; 2) Integrate and synchronize public-private efforts across the seven capital forms to eliminate the causes and sources of illicit IED network support while building sustainable livelihoods for local populations using the CAPS; 3) Appropriately balance the seven capital forms in selected States to render them self-sufficient and establish sustainable livelihoods; 4) Shift the responsibility for neutralizing illicit IED networks from the military and security forces to the community by enforcing the rule of law.

What makes PIF’s approach revolutionary is its holistic approach to identifying and eliminating root causes vice traditional approaches that failed in Afghanistan, Iraq, and elsewhere.  These current approaches focus almost exclusively on protecting sites from bombs or surviving bomb attacks.  They are often categorized by military and police reprisals that are often violent and feed the cycle of violence.  The PIF approach seeks to eliminate the conditions that allow IED networks to develop and thrive, then deals with those involved using the international rule of law.

“If you can deal with the root causes and prevent the bombs from ever going off, it’s better than dealing with the aftermath,” says Morris. “Bombings are not ‘political statements’ they are crimes that kill and maim innocent people. They hurt the community. The perpetrators are criminals and should be treated as such.”
 
The PIF approach also includes technology enablers not only to help Nigeria’s economy, but to identify and eliminate IEDs and the bomb makers.  Perhaps most important is the proposed National Alert and reporting system PIF is developing and offered to Pilot in Nigeria.  This capability not only allows the population to report suspicious and potentially dangerous activities, but can be used to issue warnings of potential IED attacks or recent events. This cellular phone and internet-based system would be available to all in Nigeria. Such a system would already have saved scores of lives just in the past few months – many in the last 48 hours.

PIF did not immediately publish the report in order to give the principles in the Nigerian Government and former militants the opportunity to implement its solutions proactively and avoid the type of violence that began December 1, 2010 and is currently escalating exponentially.

“A stable and secure Nigeria is essential to a stable and secure Africa,” says Morris. “Events in Nigeria have continental and global effect.  As a regional power and the hegemony in West Africa, events in Nigeria ripple continentally.”

Although it sounded dire warnings of the new and more serious violence that began October 1, 2010, the PIF report found many reasons for hope and positive opportunities.

Timi Alaibe, former Special Adviser to the President on Niger Delta and Head of the President's Amnesty Programme expressed support for the logic and strategy of IEDs as a unifying issue and CAPS as the means to address broader social, economic, and other factors. He expressed his support, and that of his office, to execute a Pilot in the Niger Delta with Rivers State being the pilot location. At his request PIF provided a current proposal with a concept for execution, milestones, and short, mid, and long-term resource requirements. PIF  was still waiting Mr. Alaibe’s implementation of his commitment to start the pilot when we learnt of his resignation to pursue his gubernatorial ambition..

The Rt. Hon. Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi, His Excellency, the Executive Governor of Rivers State, Port Harcourt, Nigeria met with the assessment team to receive a copy of the initial plan developed for Mr. Alaibe and promised to review it. Hon. Amaechi expressed interest and support for the pilot in his state, stating he looked forward to meeting with Morris and Alaibe to dialogue on execution and bring in the Rivers State staff to help further develop and execute implementation. PIF is currently waiting for Rt. Hon. Amaechi and Mr. Alaibe to schedule the meeting to coordinate and implement.

The initiative also garnered initial support from Federal Republic of Nigeria Senators and Members of the House of Representatives including: Honorable Tam Brisibe; Senator Ibrahim M. Ida, (CHAIRMAN - Committee on Defence and Army; MEMBER – Committee on Finance, INEC, Rules and Business); Senator James E. Manager (CHAIRMAN - Senate Committee on Niger Delta; MEMBER – Committee on State and Local Government Affairs, Banking, Finance, Judiciary, and Works); Honorable Mutu Nicolas Ebomo (CHAIRMAN- House Committee on the Niger Delta).  Although PIF did not seek a commitment of resources from the group, all expressed interest in the concept and concern over the growing IED problem. They looked forward to the project being brought forward to them for consideration.

The report documents very positive participation by offices of the Nigerian Defence Headquarters; Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC); Security Department, Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation; and the Embassies of the United States and United Kingdom, Abuja, Nigeria.

Morris was especially encouraged by the response from those former militants the team interviewed.

“While we were unable to sit down with the top MEND leaders, the former militants who met with us were sincere and had many constructive points”, said Morris. “There is a real opportunity for dialogue.”  Morris quickly added PIF’s report is not intended to infer it will be easy.  Morris added: “There are radical elements within the former militants; just as there are those in society and the government who will never work legitimately for peace. This group is the real threat to both sides and must be dealt with under the rule of law.”

As detailed in the report, former militants in Port Harcourt and Abuja expressed support for the PIF plan and a Pilot in Rivers State. They welcomed PIF as a neutral party that can hold both sides accountable and keep both sides informed as a trusted source.  These former militants accepted a copy of the proposed plan and will seek input from the former-militant leadership.

For all its positive points, the report sounded serious warnings and identified dangerous trends. These were eventually manifest in the October 1st attacks and are now increasing in scope and level of destruction.

Former militants interviewed for the report expressed concern Nigeria’s politicians are waiting to act until after the elections. They cautioned that radical elements were mobilizing in the Creeks because the Amnesty Program seems to have failed.

The group expressed low trust for the Amnesty Program based on the perceptions the government has not followed their own plan; that political sentiments are tainting the process; and there is as yet no perceived physical development of the region. In their view, people who were not militants are receiving even less or no help. Sentiments in that portion of the general population are that those who broke the law (militants) are getting the priority attention of the government is growing and it is creating a rift and un-rest. These former militants expressed concern all people (former militants and non-militants) do not benefit from the improvements.  The report documented a growing rift between non-militants who feel they obeyed the law and are being neglected in favor of those they perceive as criminals based on the government’s characterizations.

The report also reveals serious issues with other groups and handling of the IED problem itself.

The Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited representative interviewed flatly told the PIF assessment team that Shell will never acknowledge the existence or use of IEDs in Nigeria as it would give the militants an advantage.  He continued by stating that if the government of Nigeria wants to do business with Shell, it is their job to create a stable and secure environment, not the oil company’s.

PIF notes these attitudes by individuals and governments are a significant contributing factor to the global IED problem and the growing epidemic in Nigeria.

According to PIF’s Subject Matter Expert (SME) in Nigeria, Dr. Jerome Mafeni, “With over 300 IED incidents every month around the world, IEDs are a global epidemic and the number of IED incidents is increasing every month.”  The problem says Mafeni is that “Although Illicit Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) pose a significant threat to global security, stability, sustainable development, human rights, and humanitarian operations, they are incorrectly framed as a military or security problem. A purely military/security response will never: effectively halt the proliferation of illicit IEDs; eliminate IED civilian Casualties; or adequately neutralize the root cause of illicit IED networks and the devices they produce.”  The solution he and PIF offer is a disciplined, international public-private effort to identify and neutralize the root causes of illicit IED networks globally; reduce the civilian casualties they cause; and build sustainable livelihoods for effected populations using a capital forms model and the international rule of law.

Mafeni understands well the reasons current approaches such as those implemented by Western Nations in Iraq and Afghanistan have failed.  He notes the major reasons for the failure experienced by these approaches is a combination of:  Seeing IEDs as essentially as Security (military) problem; Insufficient mobilization of host communities to take ownership of and responsibility for the problem; Non-inclusion of several stakeholders e.g. academia, CSOs, and industry; Intelligence failures; Insufficient deployment of available modern technology; Inadequate commitment of funds; Treating perpetrators as political activists; Failure to apply the rule of law; and over-reliance on kinetic solutions vice having the courage to open a dialogue about the true root causes.

Morris, a retired military officer with over 31 years experience in conventional and Special Operations agrees. 

“In dealing with IEDs, the military generally focuses on defeating the device itself or attacking the network that creates and emplaces IEDs through kinetic means. The normal approach by law enforcement agencies is to arrest all potential suspects and their collaborators.” Says Morris. “Many politicians choose the path of appeasement, treating perpetrators not as criminals but freedom fighters with ‘Amnesty’ as the solution.” He adds, “There is always the fear of losing face that leads to denial and cover up. For example ‘explosions are not caused by IEDs but other causes e.g. electric device failures. This leads to acceptance and accommodation such as ‘IED threats impossible to eradicate so the natural approach is to adopt measures for prevention and minimizing damage.”

Morris is also quick to add that this is not a condition specific to Nigeria.  “Look at the United States,” he opines. “car bombs found in Times Square and in the mail system are not recognized as IEDs but referred to as ‘devices”.  By definition, the planes involved in the now infamous September 11th attacks were IEDs”.

The report concludes any solution for the Niger Delta must be shaped in the Delta and led by the people of the Delta and all legitimate parties.  This is the essential requirement for and approach of PIF’s CAPS Pilot proposal.

Current conditions in Nigeria between the opposing parties and in other areas are very positive for a CAPS deployment. Former militants and legitimate opposition groups appear to have a genuine desire for reconciliation and development to succeed.  The opportunity is before Nigeria to execute a paradigm shift in use of Nigeria’s oil revenue from a reactive approach to a proactive one that invests in sustainable livelihoods for Nigeria's people far into the future when oil resources are exhausted.

While the conditions in Nigeria present a positive environment, a holistic and comprehensive approach to addressing the issues is needed immediately. The trust and confidence essential for successful deployment of PIF’s Capital Analysis and Performance Strategy (CAPS)  is currently strong but rapidly dissipating.

The report warned at the time that if action was not taken immediately or deferred until after the scheduled elections, the alternative is to risk a high probability of catastrophic failure at the national level. Without positive action prior to the 2011 elections, PIF predicts violence and instability will return at significantly higher levels than previously seen in Nigeria. The report also predict militants who reject the amnesty in favor of crime and corruption as well as others who seek to attain financial or political gain will expand the bombings to Abuja and other major cities. These will undermine the political capital of the current administration and those honestly seeking reform and positive change among the people, former militants, and politicians.

In light of the October 1st attacks the report’s conclusions were prophetic. Still, Morris and the PIF Team remain hopeful.

“We believe the conditions are right in Nigeria and the Delta to implement this approach and resolve these problems.  We believe the people of Nigeria can succeed with this approach where many western countries failed. In doing so they can set a global example. Ignoring the problem or responding with violence is not the solution.”

As of the report’s release PIF awaits the start of committed action by The President’s Amnesty Program, Rivers State, and Former Militants.  The President’s Special Advisor on the Amnesty program stated he is committed to the pilot but requires more time to review the operational concept. PIF is waiting a time to meet again with Rivers Governor and for the joint Rivers State and Presidential Amnesty Program coordination meeting to occur.

In the meantime, PIF is continuing to work. Its CAPS approach is open to all African countries and can adapt to non-IED situations as well.

Morris recently met with the State of Virginia in the United States, Google, and other potential public and private partners.  Plans are working for PIF to establish a global IED center in Virginia, and hopes to use the Rivers Pilot as a means to establish an Africa focused sub-center in Nigeria.

IEDs in Nigeria are now a national problem. The lack of action contributing to the current wave of IED attacks now required the PIF approach be expanded beyond a one state pilot to a full national (strategic) intervention program that addresses a minimum of 3-4 hotspots - e.g. Rivers, Plateau, Borno, and FCT.

The phased approach would then address another 8 states with potential for violence (e.g. Bayelsa, Delta, Lagos, Anambra, Kaduna, Kano, Bauchi, Taraba; then a further 12; and then a final group. The eventual timeline would be adjusted to ensure all are built around the same principles incorporating lessons learned from previous phases along with the local capacity built at all levels and better integration of activities of all security agencies and use of appropriate technology for prevention and deterrence.

 “For many reasons our preference is to execute the pilot in Nigeria”, says Morris. “Going forward with that is up to the governments and the former militants.  From their position, those funding the violence should really show their sincerity and ‘fund the peace’. All stakeholders individually and collectively have the resources to start to pilot today and begin receiving return on their investment. We are ready to move forward with all parties immediately.” 

Morris concludes: “We take all we met with their word that they genuinely want to resolve these issues for the people of Nigeria.  We are ready to help. In the end, they will be measured by their actions or inaction.”

In this regard, the quotation from Sir Edmond Burke displayed on PIF’s website sets the bar for Nigeria by stating the universal truth that “All that is necessary for the forces of evil to win in this world, is for a few good men to do nothing.”

Partners International Foundation has a long history of providing a positive impact globally and locally.  Over the years Partners International Foundation’s support has ranged from Women and Children in Rwanda, Grenada, the former Soviet Republics and more.  Its volunteers worked in Afghanistan, Iraq, Nepal, Nicaragua, and other locations. 

Those wishing to support Partners International Foundation and helping it continue its work, can visit their website at www.Partners-International.org.

A full copy of the report, interview contacts, alert system demonstration, and photographs are available upon request from: [email protected]. This press release, the full report, and fact sheets can be downloaded from: http://www.partners-international.org/nigeria_ied/ - or Contact PIF

For local media in the Hampton Roads, Virginia area who desire additional information on the global impact of this innovative local charity and fact sheets on the importance of Nigeria and the Niger Delta, please contact Partners International Foundation at: [email protected]; or Mr. Bob Morris at (757) 869-6770

 
 

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