About eleven years ago precisely in 1999 when the military ceded power to the civilians, I had lamented the wrong choices that Ndigbo were making in a widely publicized article " The Igbo and their Bad Choices: Cause of Igbo Marginalization"-http://nigeriaworld.com/feature/publication/obi/igbo.html.Today, nothing has changed and the southeast Ndigbo have totally lost out and lack any political strategy.
About eleven years ago precisely in 1999 when the military ceded power to the civilians, I had lamented the wrong choices that Ndigbo were making in a widely publicized article " The Igbo and their Bad Choices: Cause of Igbo Marginalization"-http://nigeriaworld.com/feature/publication/obi/igbo.html.Today, nothing has changed and the southeast Ndigbo have totally lost out and lack any political strategy.
No Igbo of Southeast origin heads any of the branches of Government at the Federal level. The House of Representatives has Speaker Bankole from the Southwest while Ike Ekweremadu of the Southeast is the deputy Senate President. I respectfully submit that the failed leadership of Ohaneze Ndigbo and Southeast Governors will make Ndigbo politically irrelevant in Nigeria. I am not making a claim to superior knowledge of anything but I will outline the facts as they are today for the reader to make the judgment.
In 1999 Odumegwu Ojukwu set up the Progressive Democratic Congress (PDC) which was denied registration but the Southwest based Alliance for Democracy succeeded in getting registration. At that time Dr Alex Ekwueme and his group who had formed the PDP dragged Ndigbo to the PDP hoping that the Ndigbo would be better served. Ndigbo put their eggs in one basket and lost and have not yet recovered even up till today. The Igbo politicians except for a few refused to join the Ikemba to fight for the registration of the PDC and so Ndigbo were stuck with the PDP. Olusegun Obasanjo from the Southwest presented himself for election and his supporters argued that as a retired military officer he knew how to relate better to the military during the transitional period. On the other hand those supporters of Alex Ekwueme argued that the academic pedigree of Ekwueme and his experience as former Vice President made him a better candidate.Besides,every other tom, dick and harry in Igboland had their hands and legs in the race. Amongst the top Igbo politicians in the PDP was Ebitu Oko Ukiwe, a retired military officer and former military VP to Babangida.Ukiwe is a very disciplined and retired military officer who was also widely respect in the military. The Southeast zone failed to rally round the candidacy of Ukiwe and so Obasanjo finally got elected as the PDP flag bearer. What pundits like me are yet to understand is why the Southeast zone refuses to recognize the status of Ukiwe and why they failed to protest the shabby treatment meted out to Ukiwe under Babangida.I will save this for another discussion.
This is 2011 and there has been no change in the way Ndigbo approach national politics and no apparent political strategy has been developed by this zone. In one of my earlier submissions, I used the words 'politically naive' to describe Peter Obi and I have always chastised the Ohaneze Ndigbo for their inability to articulate an effective position for Ndigbo. Rather than constantly criticize other geopolitical zones and cry marginalization, Ndigbo need to take a deep breath and do a soul searching. I have said that instead of putting all their eggs in one basket, the zone should evolve alternative strategies/plans to reposition the SE in national politics. Our refusal to do this will cause us to fail and when we fail we should blame no one but our leaders'.
Before I continue the review of Southeast politics, a brief review of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) is necessary. Now that the SW is no longer in power at the center, the ACN has begun reclaiming the SW states to maintain their political independence and to gain strategic political advantage. There is no question that the ACN is a SW based party and its decision to field Nuhu Ribadu is a gimmick no person should readily buy. The ACN understands Nigeria very well and is not ready or available to be used by any region or non SW politician for their political advantage. This is what Muhammadu Buhari does not understand. Yes Buhari can fight corruption but is the ACN really interested in that? Within the ACN, the national interest of the SW zone is of top priority and that, I respectfully submit, drives the politics of the ACN. “We know that Buhari needs us but what do you have for us?” Without much formality, the ACN appointed Nuhu Ribadu as its flagbearer and is not yet selling his candidacy causing some to doubt that the ACN is really serious with Ribadu. No doubt Ribadu has some following among the youth and the internet crowd but the ACN does not belong to this group.
What does Ribadu bring to the table within the ACN? There is nothing that Ribadu has that the SW desires or wants. Key questions about this Ribadu that linger are: Who arranged for his dismissal from the Nigeria Police as a deputy commissioner of police (DCOMPOL) to be reversed? Who arranged for his demotion from Assistant Inspector General (AIG) to DCOMPOL to be reversed and his rank of AIG restored? Why was he then retired as an AIG? Why were the criminal charges against him dropped and why did Ribadu subsequently end his self imposed exile? Were all these packaged for him to come back and become President Jonathan’s (GEJ) political opponent (bite the finger that fed him?).The SW geopolitical zone’s mastery of political strategy and tactics is unquestionable and would one be surprised that Olusegun Obasanjo once declared that the SW will decide who becomes the next President? The SW stake in the 2011 presidential elections is all about gaining strategic political advantage. Not too long ago, the nation received the news that the matriarch of the Awolowo political dynasty had been appointed the Chair of the Yoruba Unity Forum. There is the Alliance for Democracy (AD), the ACN and the SW caucus in the PDP and the politics of these parties is driven by the collective interests of the SW geopolitical zone.
The emergence of Goodluck Jonathan as the PDP flagbearer has thrown the Northern zones in disarray. From what is happening in the north, there is ongoing political realignment that has thrown up Buhari and increased his political standing in the north. The Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) is likely to capture the states in the northern geopolitical zone which includes the Northwest (NW), Northeast (NE) and North Central (NC) and there it ends. I will not devote time to the ANPP because Governor Shekarau does not even have name recognition that is required in campaigning nationally.
The dominant political party in the land of the rising star supposedly should be the All Peoples Grand Alliance (APGA). This southeast based political party suffered the most from the impact of the grand rigging of the 1999 and 2007 national elections. The party was involved in a series of litigations to recover its stolen mandate from the PDP. The APGA was able to recover Anambra state which has the largest share in electoral value in the Southeast zone. Another state that proved promising in terms of success in litigations was Imo state but the sudden turnaround at the Appeal Court which did not favor APGA surprised many even in the face of abundant evidence. In Abia state, Governor Theodore Orji made a right move in joining APGA with his group. This success recorded by APGA in Abia state was short lived as Dr Emmanuel Nwodo and his PDP team convinced T.A.Orji to sell out. On the surface it appears as a feat recorded by Dr Nwodo but in reality it was the grand old man at Otta farms that pulled the strings. Let me digress a bit here to x-ray some developments in the southeast zone during the tenure of Obasanjo. There is no question that under Obasanjo the Southeast zone was given the key positions in government at the finance, foreign affairs, and defense ministries as well as at the Central Bank of Nigeria.However, what dealt a very devastating blow on the Southeast zone was under the two terms of Obasanjo. The Southeast zone was forced to produce five different Presidents of the Senate deliberately designed to favor the five states in the zone. There were only two senate terms with an excessive number of five senate presidents. This was the first and probably the last time in the history of the senate that this will ever happen. Will the Southeast zone understand the effect of remote interference in the politics of the Southeast zone?
Since 1999, the Ikemba has worked relentlessly to position the Southeast zone strategically in national politics. However, the greatest obstacle that has worked against positioning the SE zone in national politics is the greed for money. My reading of the Southwest politics is that the politicians do not allow selfish interests to jeopardize the collective interests of the zone and I stand to be corrected. The APGA which is a regional party like ACN and CPC has not established itself as a political force in Nigeria. The APGA has failed to position the SE zone to gain strategic political advantage. This is partly because of Ojukwu’s illness and the fact that the politically naive Governor Peter Obi is calling the shots in the APGA now that the Ikemba is sick. Recent developments in the APGA include the joining of APGA by Dr Akunyili and a number of other PDP politicians. These developments are hardly anything that can impact the strategic positioning of the Southeast zone in Nigeria. In the case of Akunyili, we see the immediate goal as an attempt to join the senate but the long term plan could be a possible run for the state governorship. All these have nothing to do with strategic positioning of the SE zone in national politics although she has criticized the move to zone the Senate Presidency to the SW zone.
Another significant development in the SE zone is the emergence of Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (GEJ).Ordinarily this should not be significant because there are six geopolitical zones in Nigeria and GEJ is from the Southsouth (SS) zone. In the Southeast (SE) geopolitical zone, GEJ is well liked and his emergence as a Presidential front runner has provided some healing in the old Eastern Region as a result of the wounds of the civil war. But the political interests of all the zones have always been different. Suddenly, the people of the SE zone have been psychologically manipulated into believing that GEJ is an Igbo man because he has Igbo names. This has been done without regard to the overall strategic interests of the SE zone in my humble opinion. To support this view, it is important to look at the emerging political scenario on the national level.
SOUTHEAST POSITION
1. The SE zone has through the SE Governors declared that the SE is not interested in either being President or VP and this position has been supported by Ohaneze Ndigbo. In addition they have pledged total support for GEJ on the grounds that the SE will produce the President in 2015( Is this not ambiguous?)
2. There is now a tussle for the position of National Chairman of the PDP by Dr Emmanuel Nwodo. The PDP North argues that since GEJ is flying the flag the position of Chairman should move to the North. The SE on the other hand argues that the term of the SE will expire in 2012 and therefore the SE should be allowed to finish their term in 2012.
3.President GEJ apparently in agreement with Governor Peter Obi suddenly appointed Lady Bianca Odumegwu Ojukwu as Senior Special Assistant Diaspora (whatever that means).A few SE Internet miscreants are all over the place gloating and rejoicing.
SOUTHWEST POSITION:
1. While all the foregoing are going on, the Southwest zone saw an opportunity and have positioned the zone for Senate President if GEJ wins.
2. The Southwest has also positioned the region for Vice President if Buhari/Ribadu wins.
This reminds me of the popular line by Dr Kingsley Mbadiwe: Obulu na IS a workuro WAS ga work. This again should remind us of 1999 when the two major candidates were from the Southwest zone.
Today, the SW region knows when it will be their turn again and they are not speaking. As at today three names have been mentioned as possible VP candidates namely Adebayo, Tinubu and Tunde Bakare.
It must be emphasized that I have not claimed to be a master of political strategy. What I have essentially done is to bring together known facts that have occurred and make a prediction of further outcomes. I expressed my thoughts about eleven years ago and I presented the link to that article in an earlier paragraph and nothing has changed and I have not been proved wrong eleven years after and the Southeast position has not changed. The Ohaneze Ndigbo may be banking on the statement made by GEJ that he was seeking to complete the term of Yar Adua but this is not settled in the PDP. Besides, it cannot be denied that the power of incumbency is a very big driving force in national politics and that is why GEJ is the PDP flag bearer today. I further submit that the Southsouth zone has an equal stake with the other five zones and therefore is entitled to the Presidency. If GEJ wins he will be starting the first four year term for the Southsouth zone. In the meantime, the Northern zones will have the time to re-strategize for the future.
After Obasanjo had completed two terms as President, the SW zone took the position of Speaker of the House. What was the thinking of Ohaneze when the SE zone failed to seek the position of Speaker but instead settled for deputy senate president which is a redundant position? Why is the Ohaneze banking on 2015 and ignoring the present when the SE should have been seeking to head the senate or house if GEJ wins? Why is the PDP SE caucus fighting for the PDP National Chairmanship position which will end in 2012? Has the Ohaneze ever thought of a possible scenario where GEJ would lose in his bid? In the event Buhari/Ribadu wins, the SW will produce the VP and if GEJ wins, the SW will head the Senate. If GEJ wins the election, the SE will be going home with the position of Chairman which will end in 2012. The failed leadership of Ohaneze Ndigbo and Southeast Governors will make Ndigbo politically irrelevant in Nigeria
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