The Middle East comprises North Africa and Western Asia with about two dozen countries, multitudes of races, religions, cultures and subcultures. This is a land, which had, for thousands of years been the epic-center for very many interesting and epoch making events.
The Middle East comprises North Africa and Western Asia with about two dozen countries, multitudes of races, religions, cultures and subcultures. This is a land, which had, for thousands of years been the epic-center for very many interesting and epoch making events.
Sub-Saharan Africa may be the cradle of mankind, the center of the universe; the Middle East, on the other hand, is where the collective gaze and mind of the world has been for many centuries. But in spite of the recent attention, analyses, and permutations, for many of us -- media analysts, observers, scholars and practitioners of international relations and global politics -- the totality of the ongoing events came as a surprise: it was a jolt to our understanding of the region, its people and their will-power. .
No one could have predicted these sobering events with any degree of decent accuracy. To be sure, there have been several diffusing events and ideas in history, i.e. the spread of authoritarianism, communism, proselytizing religion, the rise and fall of long-standing empires, renaissances, etc, etc; but the cascading deluges and dominoes in Tunis, Cairo, Tripoli, Amman, Sana’a, Muscat and elsewhere, was never expected. In the 1950s through the 1980s, the United States government had anticipated such to happen in Asia under what was commonly referred to as the Domino Theory.
In April 1954, for example, President Dwight D. Eisenhower was quoted as saying, “you have broader considerations that might follow what you would call the “falling domino” principle. You have a row of dominoes set up, you knock over the first one, and what will happen to the last one is the certainty that it will go over very quickly. So you could have a beginning of a disintegration that would have the most profound influences.” It was expected to happen in Asia, but not in the Middle East. And indeed, no one was sure that what we are now witnessing in the Middle East was possible in our life time. But it is happening. We are not sure how things will turn out, or even when these events will come to an inclusive stop.
What we know for sure, is that history will continue to unfold ten years from now. And in fact, the implication of these events is most likely to elude the predictive prowess of most academic-prophets in this half of the twenty-first century. For several centuries, global powers, empires, private enterprises, kings and queens, and powerful individuals and countless non-state actors have roamed the region. In the last fifty years at least, the United States and her western counterparts, have committed resources -- all in an effort to control and decide events. For these nations, directions and outcomes matters; and so they invested whatever needed to be invested in order to control the rules of the game and the eventual outcome. Two of the preferred outcomes are predictability and stability.
For several decades, the United States and her allies fought hard to install puppets within the region. It did not matter whether these regimes were responsive and accountable to their own people. It did not matter whether these regimes judiciously spent the people’s resources. Whether they abused, exploited and or repressed their people, it seemed not to matter so long as they gave their benefactors what was needed. The West had several objectives in the region. And particularly in the case of the United States, four things matter the most: Oil, Israel, the Suez Canal and advantage over the Soviets (Russia). And countries that opposed or refused to kowtow to the wishes of the US found themselves at the receiving end of the cane.
There was a time when the region was made up of strong and strong-willed men. With time, however, they had their feathers plugged, their balls softened, and their voices muffled. Those who wished to live or wanted to be left alone acquiesced to western demands. Beginning in the 1990s, however, the game changed slightly: you were left alone if you agreed to fight terrorism, “support” the State of Israel, open up your market, and be blind to western shenanigans. And if you have oil, you agree to its uninterrupted flow. In return, not only were you left alone, you earn the right to modernize your military and security services with western assistance.
And especially in North Africa, regimes that bowed to the US -- no matter their track record on human rights, decency, governance, democracy and the provision of basic needs -- enjoyed and profited from unalloyed support, not just in terms of military aid, but also in terms of foreign aids, investments, cultural exchanges, foreign trade and visits to the White House and many other American institutions. So coveted was the visit to the White House that many a head of government would do whatever it took to have their pictures taken with sitting American Presidents.
Now, what American president, since the days of Jimmy Carter, did not know how repressive and corrupt Hosni Mubarak was? Did the French not know of Ben Ali? Did the Germans and the British not know of the Algerian strongman, Abdelaziz Bouteflika? What American or western government did not know that heads of state in the Middle East, Africa and elsewhere in the Third World, lodges stolen money in their countries? The West knew, and in some cases, were party to some of the shady investment activities of these heads of government. More often than not, western governments promote democracy and human rights; yet, concurrently support illegalities. At other times, they turn blind eyes to the iniquities of their partners in the fight against terrorism.
Today, as the Middle East unravels many intellectuals and observers -- even if silently and secretly -- are beginning to wonder why, at this point in time, is the region engulfed by the Tunis-Cairo Fever? It may have begun in Tunisia; still, many are wondering if the seeds of revolt/revolution were spontaneous or if western elements and command nudged the dominoes to fall. What trillions of dollars and trillions of intelligence hours could not achieve in fifty-plus years is now being realized through modern telecommunication and a social network called Facebook? Incredulous!
We may never know the full story. And at least for now, we do not know what the immediate and long term implications would be. We don’t! For instance, would the new administrations be friendly towards the United States? Would they promote peace and security insofar as the State of Israel is concerned? Would they engage the western world in meaningful ways or become antagonistic towards it? Would they open their markets, promote free trade, human rights and democratic values and ideals? Or perhaps we will witness waves of military regimes and civilian authoritarianism? Again, we don’t know. Even so, it is entirely possible that we will witness continuing political instability in one or two countries that may throw the region and the world into around round of political attrition. All we know, all we know for now and for sure, is that there is a collapse of authoritarian and puppet regimes in the Middle East.
What will be the long term cost and benefit to the US and her allies? No one knows for sure. However, if history is a guide, let’s look to Eastern Europe at the tail end of the Cold War era: After Mikhail Sergeyevich Gorbachev withdrew Soviet Union’s threat of force against Eastern European countries in 1989; authoritarian regimes in that part of the world began to collapse. What followed was a period of uncertainties and anxieties. In the years since, however, there has been a good measure of democratic, economic and political reforms. But of course, these countries had Western Europe and the United States to learn from. The Middle East, on the other hand, is in a different region of the world and with too many conflicting and contending phenomenon to contend with. In all of these, the United State and the State of Israel stand to gain the most; and both countries stand to bear the most cost.
Sabella Abidde writes from Montgomery, Alabama. He is on Facebook and can be reached at: [email protected]
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