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The Sudan Effect: How To Know If Your Country Is At Risk - Part 1 &2

September 3, 2011

The Republic of South Sudan became the world’s newest nation on July 9, 2011, when it peacefully seceded from the mother nation of Republic of Sudan following a January 2011 referendum. What was not peaceful though was the painful period of gestation which the people of South Sudan had gone through before the birth of their separate homeland. It was a twenty-year civil war in which an Islamist government in Khartoum starved some five million Christians and followers of traditional African religion. This cruel oppression led the South Sudanese to vote overwhelmingly to break away. The political independence was the right soothing balm for the people of South Sudan, it was well deserved.

The Republic of South Sudan became the world’s newest nation on July 9, 2011, when it peacefully seceded from the mother nation of Republic of Sudan following a January 2011 referendum. What was not peaceful though was the painful period of gestation which the people of South Sudan had gone through before the birth of their separate homeland. It was a twenty-year civil war in which an Islamist government in Khartoum starved some five million Christians and followers of traditional African religion. This cruel oppression led the South Sudanese to vote overwhelmingly to break away. The political independence was the right soothing balm for the people of South Sudan, it was well deserved.

Our world is always adding significant events to human history. Just to mention a few recent global events; citizens from countries like Portugal, Italy, Spain and Greece recently stormed the streets to protest their government’s austerity program. London was engulfed with riots and looting while Somalia faced severe drought, famine and abject poverty. In Israel, it was a protest on high costs of living. We just had the Arab Spring of populist uprisings against dictatorship governments across North Africa and Middle East, leaving a residue of protracted battles between Col. Muammar Gaddafi and the rebels in Libya, President Bashar Assad and his people in Syria and President Ali Abdullah Saleh and the Islamists in Yemen. Last week, for the first time in history, the U.S. had its credit rating downgraded by Standard & Poor’s (S&P) from AAA to AA+, what I call a credit downgrade from superpower to super stupor!

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Every day, we wake up in this world with more troubles and uncertainties. No one knows what is coming next; could it be the Sudan Effect? An effect that outlays a split of diametrically opposed people of a nation along the lines of ethnicity, religion and natural resources, in order to harness the complexity for the greater good, by consensus for its entire people. It is a paradigm of how a country leverages its complex differences, the various ways its people see problems and the adaptive tools the people could use to solve the problems. Today, many countries in Africa share a lot of affinities with the socio-economic, geo-political and ethno-religious composition of the “old Sudan”.

As it is widely known, the rift that ran most deeply from North to South in Sudan could be adduced to religion. The imposition of Shari’ah law on the non-Muslim South Sudan where most people follow traditional beliefs and Christianity was one of the primary reasons for the long civil war and the eventual split. Before the split, the North of Sudan had promised an agenda to establish Islamic laws on the remaining parts of Sudan should the South secede after the referendum. To support this agenda, the President, Omar al-Bashir gave a statement in December 2010 that “the constitution would then be changed, making Islam the only religion, Shari’ah the only law and Arabic the only official language”.

Could the Sudan Effect lead to a revival of nationalism or tribalism in many parts of the world especially in Africa? I believe so and here is why.

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Like in the old Sudan, the history of many Sub-Sahara African countries in the last 50 years is that many governments in Africa are always in constant fight against their own people. The citizenry don’t trust their government leadership and the leadership do not care much for the citizenry. If anyone thinks the leadership care so much, then, why is it that in many African nations, if you turned the water tap knob, there would be no water running and if you turned on the electric switch, there would be no light? Contracts awarded to provide uninterrupted supply of electricity turned out to be contracts that provided more darkness. Some nations have refineries yet they still import refined gasoline. The pictures and videos of poor African children showing visible traces of rib bones in their bodies with flies flying over their faces or phlegm running down their noses are all over the world as tools to raise funds to help “defeat child malnutrition & diseases” despite the fact that every African country at least, has a ministry of Health, or Youth or maybe Women Affairs - all with fat budgets. What a shame!

Another story of many African countries has always been about “authority stealing” and corruption galore (no need to talk about it in this article). What about military interventions in African governments? News of military coups was a normal news diet for everyday African folks. When I was living in Africa, I personally listened to about 10 coups and counter-coups announcements - at least five in my own country. In the case of Sudan, I was listening to BBC in 1989, when the news of military coup in Sudan broke and the then Brigadier Omar Bashir rode to power in a bloodless military coup that ousted the government of Prime Minister Sadiq Al-Mahdi, promising better life for the Sudanese. Unfortunately what the Sudanese got was civil war, political instability, humanitarian crises, ethnic cleansing, religious intolerance, and atrocious rape of women. There was genocide in Dafur by the Janjaweed and conflicts in oil-rich Abyei.

Furthermore, inflation is currently blowing across African continent; prices of foods and scarce gasoline are through the roof. Many African nations are dependent on Western assistance for survival yet many of its citizens still live in poverty. There is high youth unemployment rate, civil strife, economic hardships, and insecurity. In times of danger in some African countries, if you called the firefighters, the firefighters would not have functional fire trucks and when they do, they might not have enough water to extinguish the fire. If you called the police, they might not have enough gasoline in their vehicles to race to crime scenes but amazingly, when an African government wants to stop its people’s legitimate anti-government protests, military tanks are rolled out with a speed of light! Again, another familiar African story!

The Sudan Effect has broken the jinx of what many African leaders and possibly some African citizens are afraid of – the fear to institute a binding referendum that allows the people to cast a direct vote to decide if the people of a country should remain united (in hopelessness?) or separate amicably. Of course, answer to a referendum question is either yes or no. There is no mumbling like: “em…em…em” - an interjection you could hear from many African leaders who are faltering to show leadership on national issues.

If a referendum could agreeably happen in Sudan, why could it not reasonably happen in other parts of Africa for the greater good of the people who want to be free from the grips of central government’s oppression and neglect? Please, don’t get me wrong, this writer is not calling for secession in any country. However, when all of the above factors are combined, even with other factors that are ephemeral, the disintegration of old Sudan may ignite a re-awakening of long-suppressed nationalist and anti-government feelings that currently exist in many African countries. 

Whether a country is democratic or not, strong agitations for greater independence from central government’s rule could still grow louder for self-determination. In fact, many of the so called democratic nations in Africa are amalgams of people of diverse cultural make up, these people just found themselves unintentionally bonded together in a geographical setting called a “country” – some by colonial permutations, some by conquests, some by Providence and of course, some by ignorance. These nations are very tribal and still institutionally underdeveloped, they are actually primed for a continued division rather than unified, functioning democracy.

In any case, the Sudan Effect may not be a strange effect to African citizens, both at home and in diaspora because many African citizens would probably value the vision of national consciousness; that unless the people of a nation would sincerely come together in unity and live peacefully as one, a time would come, considering certain indicators, when the idea of “one nation” may not be sustainable, after all.

Therefore, regardless of the CIA predictions about “break-apart possibilities” of some African countries, the Sudan Effect may be lurking in your country. The indicators are in the air for all to discern. There is no need to listen to political false prophets.
 
In part 1 of this article, I described the Sudan Effect as an effect that outlays a split of diametrically opposed people of a nation along the lines of ethnicity, religion and natural resources, in order to harness the complexity for the greater good, by consensus for its entire people. I also stated that it is a paradigm of how a country leverages its complex differences, the various ways its people see problems and the adaptive tools the people could use to solve the problems.

Furthermore, I showed that many countries in Africa today share many affinities with the socio-economic, geo-political and ethno-religious composition of the old Sudan. This concluding part will present a simple proposition that can be used to determine if your country is at risk of the Sudan Effect.

By using the old Sudan as a thematic focus of this article, here is the question for you: Is your country at risk of the Sudan Effect?

Here are 10 basic indicators (arranged in alphabetic order) which I think can help you make a snap judgment.

0    Civil War: There was once at least one secession attempt by a particular region in your country resulting into to a civil war and up till this present day, there are still tacit or open calls for a revival of the old secessionist attempt.

0    Colonialism: Foreign colonial masters shaped the geography of your country where strange people of different tribes and tongues are merged together as “people amalgam”. A set of tribes or people merely found themselves in an unfair unity government about which they were never consulted.

0    Corruption: If in your country, the most powerful ministry in the government without physical buildings is the “Ministry of Corruption” where massive level of fraud, waste, abuse and embezzlement of government funds is the standard mode of operation. The country’s treasury and wealth are controlled mostly by some government officials (past and present), their cronies and families.

0    Economic Policy: Your country has undergone many austerity measures or structural adjustment programs in the past and yet the economy still defies all reasonable economic logic. Rather, there is general resentment due to anemic economy, high poverty level, high inflation, high unemployment rate, poor education and healthcare system, scarcity of gasoline, erratic electricity supply, lack of functional public infrastructures and many social amenities.

0    Military Intervention: The government of your country was once dominated by military regimes or absolute rulers more than democratically elected civilians or your country is still under the grips of military with threats of military coups. Or maybe the Military are politicians in uniform.

0    National Policy: If the formulations of national policies in your country are based on Muslims vs. Christians, and every national appointment or election is based on regional dichotomy like North vs. South, or East vs. West,  and the central government exercises almighty control on states, regions or provinces in the country especially on allocation of funds and resources.

0    Natural Resources: Natural resources (e.g. crude oil and natural gas) are concentrated in a particular region in your country while other regions are either desirous to sabotage them or to exert overt control thereupon. Areas that lay the “golden eggs” for the country is environmentally impoverished and local people are fighting back either as organized militias or separatists.

0    Pluralistic Society: Your country has over 100 ethnic groups with different languages and cultures. National unity is promoted in the name of “federal character” among 2 or 4 major ethnic groups but an ethnic group wishes to dominate the national government (born-to-rule nepotism). Ironically, you are a treated like an unwanted “foreigner” in your own country if you reside or work in a different ethnic location other than yours in the country.

0    Religious Intolerance: Incidents of insurrectionary religious mayhem have metamorphosed into bomb attacks or suicide bombings, and some religious fundamentalist sects in your country are openly calling for the imposition of strict religious law e.g. Shari’ah law as the supreme law of the country. These fundamentalists are not afraid to openly claim responsibility for their murderous acts. Worst still, your government may be paying lip service to the threats of Jihadists in the country and even may be willing to offer the Jihadists an amnesty.

0    Separatist Movement: Long-suppressed nationalist and anti-government feelings currently exist in your country and there are agitations for separate homeland by a region or set of tribes. There are open calls for sovereign nation conference to determine the future of your country or possibility of a referendum for secession.

Here is the key, please count your total checks and find your grade below:
A.    9-10:    Your country is at high risk of the Sudan Effect. It may take some time before it happens but it will surely happen unless major problems are resolved very swiftly.

B.    6-8:    Your country is susceptible to the Sudan Effect
C.    3-5:    Your country may likely avoid the Sudan Effect
D.    0-2:      Your country is safe.
If you can, please mention your country and email your grade (A, B, C or D) to [email protected].

Among the indicators stated above, one indicator that is very difficult to control is religious intolerance. A closer look at the split of old Sudan shows that it has technically resulted into the creation of a Republic of “Christian” South Sudan and an emergence of a Republic of “Islamic” North Sudan. However, the new country of Republic of South Sudan still has some elements of the old Sudan and thus may not be immune to the indicators stated above.

Secession fever may grip many nations that are currently going through what Sudan has just overcome. Again, please do not get me wrong, I am not calling for secession in any country. My theory is that for a given geographical nation, there are integral nations within that country.

People must promote candor and must not be afraid of opposition. They must stimulate the clash of ideas to reach the truth and keep conflict constructive to promote collective problem-solving exploration, by consensus and not by compromise.

Compromise, in my opinion, means how negotiating regions or tribes in a nation will lose something as little or as much as possible, usually with resentments. Whereas, through consensus, a nation could reach a popular decision by objectively combining the capabilities and ideas of all tribes or regions in a new way to achieve a widely acceptable result neither any region nor tribe could accomplish alone.

Let no one be scared of secession, it has been part of human history since early Bible times. For example, it happened to Ancient Israelites in 922 BCE (1 Kings 12, KJV). At the death of King Solomon, the ancient United Kingdom of Israel split into two competing kingdoms; 10 tribes in the north retained the name “Kingdom of Israel” and 2 tribes including scattered Levites in the south became “Kingdom of Judah”. In modern times, defunct countries like Czechoslovakia, Soviet Union, and Yugoslavia had all split, yet the sky did not fall, the world still continues!

Whenever a block or group of blocks in a country believes they can dominate the national government, this “born-to-rule” block(s) must realize that this world is a small village, and that the quest for self-rule by aggrieved sections in the polity is now made easy by internet, facebook, tweeter, YouTube and other social network technologies. Aggrieved persons usually have a plan B, national government does not. Aggrieved persons interact among themselves faster than the comfortable leaders of a national government. If a country does not want secession, the leadership must connect with the “followership” and the government must connect with the governed. Each block must co-exist with other blocks in peace, prosperity and harmony - just as alphabet letters bond together to form readable words or atoms bonding together to form molecules.

Will the Sudan Effect motivate citizens of each country in Africa, even in the Middle East peel off the layers of onions of their government until the citizens reach the seedling that can be planted and watered for quick harvest - an harvest of a new, separate homeland?

The only way to prevent the Sudan Effect in Africa is to simply reverse the Sudan Effect - a reversal means that an African country elects to maintain its political status quo despite all the troubles facing the country. If it is not reversed, it will make people of a country come together so that they will think how to think, decide how to decide, and act how to act. A country can do this by embracing a call for National Consensus Conference where the citizens must invest time and forethought into creating a high quality decision for their future, by consensus.

Nester Komolafe is a Chicago-based freelance commentator and analyst on global affairs.
Email: [email protected]
September 3, 2011




 

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