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Avoiding Collapse By Sonala Olumhense

Three times since assuming rulership of Nigeria, Mr. Goodluck Jonathan has used the c-word.  Not corruption, but collapse.

Three times since assuming rulership of Nigeria, Mr. Goodluck Jonathan has used the c-word.  Not corruption, but collapse.

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In Minna in July 2010, in a speech read for him by the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Alhaji Yayale Ahmed, Mr. Jonathan lambasted corruption, illegal acquisition of wealth, absence of productivity, dependence on oil, and evasion of taxes.  He warned: “Unless Nigeria retraced its steps, very soon the system will collapse.”

Mr. Jonathan, for some reason, chose a difficult imagery from the manufacturing industry to make his point.  “Nigeria is genuine,” he asserted, pointing fingers, “Nigeria is not fake; those who are not genuine, those who are fake will definitely be shown the way out.”

The second time he evoked the spectre of collapse was at the 51st Independence Anniversary Lecture in Abuja on September 27 when he lamented that things were so bad that his office had become something of a psychiatrist’s couch where ministers go to be counseled because of the systemic rot that has made it impossible for them to operate independently of the presidency.

He called it a collapsed system which encourages a culture of corruption, patronage and indiscipline.  Even the institutions that are supposed to protect public resources and prevent leakages have collapsed, he said.
And then, last week, as he prepared to leave for the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting in Australia, he told the National Working Committee of the People’s Democratic Party that if his government continued to subsidize petroleum products could lead to the collapse of the economy.

In previous communication with the National Assembly Mr. Jonathan had indicated that his government would implement the policy beginning in January 2012. 
Now, I had always thought that the eyes of the Petroleum Resources Minister Diezani Allison-Madueke look funny.  But now I am beginning to think they look bleary because she sleeps at cabinet meetings, because when she arrived in Australia with Mr. Jonathan, she denied decision has been made about fuel subsidies.  She seemed to have no idea that three weeks earlier, on October 4, her boss submitted to the Senate his administration’s Medium Term Expenditure Framework which clearly said fuel subsidy would be removed in a matter of weeks.
The Minister’s statement is the latest in a string of blunders that make the Jonathan government a study in team turmoil.
In any case, it is good that Mr. Jonathan seems concerned about the state of the nation.  The only problem is that so far, he has either offered weak answers, or no answers at all. 
Why is he trying to eliminate the oil subsidy, which he said would “save” N1.2trn?  Two answers have been offered, each as indefensible as the other.  The first is that the funds are required for the government to develop the nation’s infrastructure.  The second is that the funds are required for the government to combat the emerging security threats. 
Let us set this subterfuge to rest.  The state of Nigeria’s infrastructure is despite miles of financial investment in the past 12 years, not an absence of.  In place of true governance, Nigerians know we have perfected the institution of contracts in which funds are thrown at problems, and through them to the privileged.  President Olusegun Obasanjo made a career of it—with tens of billions of dollars disappearing into roads and electricity, for instance—and he has been given a pass by his handpicked successors.  There is nothing that Mr. Jonathan has done to make any Nigerian expect anything but worse. 
Security?  The problem with security in Nigeria has nothing to do with dearth of funds, but with the management of the economy and the institutions that are supposed to deal with security.  As the Police Service Commission boss explained recently, for instance, an embarrassing proportion of the nation’s police force is out there carrying handbags for the wives of the privileged. 
Flinging money at the problem is our response, but that is because the government does not understand that while you can buy guns and bullets, peace is not on the shelf at the supermarket; you must nurture it. 
On account of this misreading of the situation, the Jonathan government has now taken advantage of the situation by sending to the National Assembly a fresh N98.4 billion security allocation request to be shared by various government Ministries and offices.
That is a fresh round of disbursement designed to purchase security, as though it were available on a supermarket shelf, and it is in addition to N 291.704 billion provided in the 2011 budget to the Armed Forces and the Police.  It is the old money-focused approach to problem-resolution, and our experience is that the funds will disappear into our canyon of greed and while the problems multiply and demand more funds. 
This is why I find Dr. Shamsudeen Usman, the Minister of National Planning, to be very interesting. Last week, he announced that Mr. Jonathan will soon announce his transformation agenda, and that it would address Nigeria’s poor punishment regime where those who steal funds do not worry about heavy repercussions.

“In all societies, if you don’t have control systems that catch and punish those who steal funds, they will continue to steal…These are part of the structural issues that would be addressed by the transformation agenda,” he said. “We have to emphasize the rule of law, judicial system and the policing system. When you know that there is 99 percent chances you would be caught when you steal and 100 percent chances that you would go to jail, you won’t steal.”

This certainly adds a new wrinkle to the equation.  Mr. Jonathan has spoken about a transformation agenda for months, and it is going to be fascinating to see him take up the crusade, and put our executive thieves behind bars. 

Ahead of that, a parallel effort is being made to convince Nigerians that the removal of fuel subsidy will be good for them.  According to Mrs. Allison-Madueke, the government has assembled a committee of “Nigerians of high integrity” which will advise on how to manage the bonanza.  It has probably crossed their minds that the Desert Storm bonanza and the recovered Abacha loot have vanished.

There are three exclamation marks here.  First, there was no fuel subsidy mentioned when Jonathan campaigned for office perched on top of a multitude of promises.  "I do not make empty promises in my campaign because whatever I promise to do, I had already carried out adequate study to make sure I can accomplish it in the next four years," he told a huge crowd in Onitsha on February 27.

The second is that Jonathan has settled into a tradition of vital committeeing vital issues; ensuing reports are then ignored. Among them: the Okigbo Committee which handled the Halliburton investigation; the Justice Uwais Panel on electoral reform; the Theophilus Danjuma Presidential Advisory Committee, and the Presidential Projects Assessment Committee. 

The third concern in this give-me-all-your-money-and-I-give-you-forever is that Jonathan has yet to demonstrate leadership by example.  Not only is his government spending lavishly, Jonathan refuses to declare his assets.

These concerns are responsible for this government’s great difficulty in persuading Nigerians it means well.  Nigerians have lived for far too long with deceptive, grabbing and uncaring governments for them to believe that this one will be any different.  And that puts into perspective its prospects for its ability to achieve anything in the next four years.
If Mr. Jonathan is truly worried about the roof coming down under his charge, he would do well to remember that a conscientious and committed government—one with no lag in time or substance between its words and its actions—is not simply the only way to avoid collapse. 
There is growing evidence it is also the only way to avoid conflagration.

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