2011 has been a remarkable year for Nigeria, and indeed the whole world. It is ending as the year that saw the death of some of the world’s strong men and the year that sealed a permanent stamp on the raging change that was pursuing the world order in the last few years. It turned the table, threw up America as broke, Europe as bankrupt and China as the champion. It is the year of protests and eruptions; the year of the young and the restless; and the year of the social media.
2011 has been a remarkable year for Nigeria, and indeed the whole world. It is ending as the year that saw the death of some of the world’s strong men and the year that sealed a permanent stamp on the raging change that was pursuing the world order in the last few years. It turned the table, threw up America as broke, Europe as bankrupt and China as the champion. It is the year of protests and eruptions; the year of the young and the restless; and the year of the social media.
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Here at home, it changed our political equation, elevating the least prepared amongst the pack of candidates to the most important seat in Africa. This year kept us permanently in world news for the very wrong reasons. The determination of Boko Haram to make Nigeria ungovernable was sustained by the audacious sect members themselves. They dared the United Nations with their bombs, reducing part of their building - and personnel - to mere dust. They staggered the police, almost killing the Inspector General. They jolted the military, taking the battle to their barracks.
They showed no pity on the church even with their knowledge that worshippers are meek and mild. They knew no segregation. They killed even in the mosque. They showed unwillingness to negotiate by killing a relative of their late leader who engaged an emissary of the government, Mr Olusegun Obasanjo. They are bolder, more daring and more sophisticated. And in the best form of their history, they enter the New Year.
No pretenses; Boko Haram is the first of a twin mould that’ll shape every other thing in Nigeria next year. The other is fuel subsidy. And both have the capacity to ignite a conflagration that may consume Nigeria. One will serve as a catalyst for the other. And even in the absence of the other, one can reduce Nigeria to the state of nothingness.
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On the surface, the Boko Haram challenge appears religious. May be, but I can’t stake my money on that. Yes, it was birthed by a religious ideology but it has since left that region in search of something further, deep, and far beyond the comprehension of many. Some people think Boko Haram is a political machine invented by a power-hungry Northern establishment with the sole aim of serving a just desert to President Goodluck Jonathan for being grossly ungentlemanly in his quest for power - which manifested in the way and manner he tossed aside his party’s zoning arrangement. Again, maybe, yet I can’t stake anything on that. What we have seen so far about the sect’s modus operandi hasn’t in any way suggested that the above assumptions are valid.
Boko Haram has assumed the status of a colossus; huge and looming larger than life. Pettiness in thinking is one sure way to avoid in trying to contain this challenge. We need to look beyond ethnic and religious biases here.
Mr. John Campbell - former United States Ambassador to Nigeria - gave an advice that MUST be taken seriously by the Nigerian government as we grapple with this challenge. He asked the Nigerian government not to seek foreign assistance in trying to tackle Boko Haram. That advice came at a time the virtual world of social media has in circulation an essay authored by a foreign journalist who gave a scary, but not-so-easy-to-dismiss, picture of where Boko Haram wants to take Nigeria to. Even if one was to dismiss the journalist’s essay as one conspiracy theory conjured up to distract us from facing the real thing, Mr Campbell’s voice on this is weighty, and should be seen as what it is: a weighty voice from a friend who should know.
I have no interest in seeking to croon to the ears of today’s doubting Thomases, sometime in the future, “remember, I said so?”. Yet I have a hunch Nigeria is teetering towards a second civil war if, and only if, the government does not show real, honest and strong leadership henceforth. And the danger is that there’s no time for indecisiveness here. The government must realize that 2012 may serve us a plate of disintegration.
I have asked my friends severally, “if the most populous black nation in the world, rich in oil, (Bonny Light Crude, not just one low quality oil) goes into a civil war, will nations not benefit? If nations will benefit economically, in our dog-eat- dog world, do you think they’ll not wish or work for it to happen?” And each time I’ve asked that question, I’ve always got friends to take a deep breath, to think about our country, their future, our collective future. And the answer has always been, yes, nations will benefit.
The bombing of churches by Boko Haram was targeted at arousing reprisal killings. It almost happened on Christmas day. I watched the survivors of St. Theresa’s Church attack and read their body language. The Christmas day attacks will certainly not be the last designed in that manner. They have threatened a repetition which may not happen exactly on New Year’s eve or even New Year day. But before one more month, we may witness something far worse than the Madalla attacks. Given the threat from Christian leaders and their charge to their faithful to “defend themselves”, the reprisals might be born. And that will be the dawn of a long journey into oblivion for a country nurtured in hope.
What best time for those who wish us evil to amass oil wealth than this period of a major shift in the world order. Nations are broke. A whole continent is bankrupt. And somewhere in Africa - where corruption has reigned supreme for decades, leaving an army of unemployed youths, disgruntled, disenchanted, shortchanged and ready to bring the system down - there’s black gold, able to resuscitate the dying economies and wobbling currencies. There’s also opportunity to sell arms, in massive quantities. What’s the best thing to do? Nigeria is up for grabs.
With a leadership unwilling to displease the rotten system and its lords, isn’t Nigeria ripe for balkanization? And with a compromised security arm – some even sympathetic to the terror merchants –Nigeria is entering 2012 under a thick cloud of uncertainty. And those ready to feast on the carcass of a dead Nigeria are positioning themselves to perch on vantage points. Is anybody in government circles sensitive enough to stop this from happening?
High-powered meetings are on. Diplomats and more diplomats have been having audience with the fellows who run Nigeria. How conflicting are their suggestions. Some are honest. Many aren’t.
Then enters fuel subsidy. The interest of the West in the proposed removal of fuel subsidy by the Federal Government isn’t hidden. It is as public knowledge as the stiff resistance that has greeted it since it was announced. Such unpopular policy is coming at a critical time; a wrong time. With over 30 million young people unemployed, the likelihood of an uprising in the event of any increase in the price of fuel is almost certain.
Take Boko Haram aside; subsidy removal poses more than enough threat to this government. It has united Nigerians of all ethnic nationalities and religious groups. The price of fuel has no tribal mark, it has no accent and it worships in neither church, mosque nor shrine. The proposed price increase of fuel represents suffering which, for over 30 years, Nigerians have known. They don’t want more. They are not ready to take more. Not when they see waste in government, and stealing of resources to an alarming dimension.
If, and when, protests erupt, how many security agents will be on hand to control them? If the protests attract hundreds of thousands of citizens, as it is tending to, will the police contain them? If the police is focusing on ensuring that the protests don’t degenerate to violence, who checks Boko Haram?
Can the danger be averted? Certainly! The president has all it takes to avert it. He must sacrifice one the corrupt for Nigeria to remain. He must sacrifice his friendship with certain persons for the danger to clear. People must be sacked (example, Azazi and Co). Stolen wealth must be recovered (example, his colleague former governors). Candidates for the prison must be escorted to their rightful cells. He’ll first need to work on perception. He has to make the Nigerian, including Boko Haram, see him as competent and courageous. He has to rekindle our belief in Nigeria through good governance. He has to deploy sophisticated security in tackling our insecurity. And ultimately, he has to severe Nigeria’s relationship with some countries. And this is key!
Will he do these? I am afraid he won’t. I have often raised my concerns about his lack of capacity to perform. I hope the grim situation we face forces him to surprise me. Yet, if he doesn’t, the president may have to ask himself: Can Africa contain the refugee situation that would emanate from a population of 167million?
By the time he’ll be answering this question, would he still be in Aso Rock?
2012 will tell.
Follow me on Twitter: @ekekeee
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