Jonathan’s Post-“Subsidy” Paradise By Ogaga Ifowodo

By now the whole world has heard of the paradise that President Goodluck Jonathan swears awaits every Nigerian the moment oil “subsidy” is withdrawn. The charm and splendour of this paradise is contained in the latest document of deception to emanate from our government. It is called the Subsidy Reinvestment and Employment Programme, or SURE for short. It comes on the heels of General Obasanjo’s NEEDS—National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy.

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How creative our governments are with catchy acronyms! If you haven’t read Jonathan’s SURE, you should. It is sure to entertain you and there is no harm in a little comic relief now that all the news is unrelievedly bad. But before you do, let me give you an idea of the many good things it promises: maternities, schools, roads, bridges (including the much talked about second Niger Bridge), railways, refineries, dams and power plants. There will also be social security projects such as free maternal and child care services, vocational training, public works programmes aimed at rescuing the army of jobless youths from the streets, an urban mass transit scheme, intensified water and agricultural initiatives. As evidence that Jonathan is aware we are in the 21st Century after all, he did not forget to include an information technology package as one more boon of the “subsidy” withdrawal.

As I read it, I was struck by its scope.  SURE was designed to lure us to sleep, to disarm us of our deep distrust of government, so Jonathan was driven to promising everything. Perhaps he had no choice. Since every sector of the nation’s economy is in distress, he couldn’t possibly leave any out. But you won’t read far before you notice a glaring omission. No where will you find the projected cost of this gargantuan transformation effort sure to rival any in modern history, including the transformation of a backward and agrarian Russia after the 1917 revolution into the industrial powerhouse that would send the first manned rocket to space. And you will soon wonder aloud: all of these state-sponsored projects in justification of deregulation, of government’s surrender to the private sector, to corporate governance? Just how much will it cost the government to build one corner of this paradise? And then you note the one figure that is given: N1.134 trillion. That is the sum Jonathan says will be saved from the phantom subsidy withdrawal. Out of which the federal government would get N478.49, the states N411.03, and local governments N203.23 billion respectively. In truth, then, Jonathan will transform Nigeria into a land flowing with milk and honey, a veritable El Dorado, with his paltry share.

But why would I call nearly half a trillion naira paltry? Well, simply because the naira is not the pre-SAP currency that was worth something in by-gone days; in fact, worth more than the dollar. The IMF and World Bank, we must not forget, began the project of dismantling Nigeria two and a half decades ago. Precisely under General Ibrahim Babangida who fled, in the heat of the destruction that ensued, to his fabled hillside mansion of gold and marble in Minna. The result is that as the naira maintains its freefall to the depths of worthlessness, government officials no longer speak of millions but billions, which add up quickly to trillions. I will give you proof in a moment. So just how many intercity expressways, rail lines together with the trains to ply them, refineries, power and petrochemical plants, among others, can Jonathan build per year with N478 billion naira?

I said I would give proof of why we count mostly in billions and trillions but rarely in millions these days, so here it is. Between January and September 2009, when Jonathan was vice president, the value of the major contracts awarded by the federal government was close to a trillion naira. I refer readers to Sonala Olumhense’s well researched article, “The Contract Bazaar” in The Guardian of 11 October 2009 (also http://saharareporters.com/column/contract-bazaar). In August 2009, the Yar’Adua-Jonathan government awarded contracts worth N348 billion to improve power generation, distribution and transmission. In June of that year, a N114 billion contract was awarded to procure locomotives for the Nigeria Railway Corporation. There were also a N41.5 billion contract for the purchase of fertilizers to be sold to farmers at a 25% subsidy (seen how abundant and cheap food has been ever since? that’s why!), a N25.3 billion contract for the dualisation of a purported East-West highway, and an additional N16.67 billion for the reconstruction of the Benin-Sagamu expressway which brought the total sunk in that lingering death trap to N24.27billion. These are just a few of the tally, but the figures speak loudly: as surely as day is separate from night, nothing substantial will result from SURE worth the unmitigated pain and grief to follow the “subsidy” withdrawal.

And you will ask: can the N1.134 billion El Dorado fund not be found by any other means? In Jonathan’s disappointing broadcast to the nation in response to the gathering momentum for a national protest, he recognizes that it can but, characteristically, fell short of the courage to take that option. Instead, he proposed cutting “the basic salaries of all political office holders in the executive arm of government” by 25%.  Note, basic salaries, and only the executive arm! No mention of allowances, which is where the real legalized theft is done. Wonder how much that will amount to? Enough, I suppose, to build a refinery or two—I wish he had told! This does not even qualify as a half gesture, being none. If Jonathan will do the right thing, then he would speak of a comprehensive downward review of the salaries and allowances of all public servants of the rank of permanent secretary and above by at least 50%. It is laughable that a wealthy nation like Singapore can cut its prime minister’s total emolument by 36%, the president’s by 51%, and the president of a poor country the majority of whose citizens are literally in the poorhouse will only concede a quarter of his basic salary. And, of course, there was no mention of security votes. I challenge Jonathan to disclose the total amount of the security votes of all local government chairmen (yes, they have them too), state governors and the president. I wouldn’t even put it past their deputies, the president of the senate, the speaker of the house of representatives, speakers of the state houses of assembly and every minister and commissioner to have a security vote too. In fact, I am willing to bet on it that this is the case.

But why even make this a matter of conjecture? In a widely reported claim, Dahiru Kuta, chairman of the Senate Committee on Federal Character and Inter-governmental Affairs, disclosed that Nigeria loses about N3 trillion annually to corruption, mostly perpetrated through the phenomenon of ghost workers. That is just one avenue of greed and graft that can be firmly closed, thus saving the masses who are barely able to keep body and soul together from the death blow of hyper-inflation sure to follow the withdrawal of “subsidy.” Seeing all the possible ways Jonathan can fund his trillion-naira paradise pipe dream but which he obstinately refuses to take, lest he annoy the IMF and the World Bank, it beats me hollow how he can expect any sane person to believe him. In his speech yesterday, he used the word “assure” seven times while failing to say any assuring thing. He most certainly did not assure us, nor the foreign investors that he believes have only been waiting for him to remove oil “subsidy” before they would fall over themselves to invest in our country. Yes, the same country where kidnappers snatch people from the streets for ransom without their even being caught or tried, no matter how high or low the victims. The same country in which Boko Haram can bomb the offices of the United Nations, the headquarters of the police force and a church right under the president’s nose in Abuja and all he could say was that we have to learn to live with terror. The same country where the roads that Jonathan proposes to use for his poverty alleviation mass transit programme are death and armed robbery traps, sure to wreck the imported buses in a matter of months. And where in the world is mass transit done with buses? In a country where barbershops and hairdressing saloons, the pepper-and-tomato grinder at the market and the roadside vulcaniser, all have to rely on generators, Jonathan acts as if the impact of “subsidy” withdrawal will be felt only in the transport sector. Apparently, he does not know the country he presumes to govern.

Jonathan has yet to say if he will increase the minimum wage to N100,000—which should be the basic post-subsidy salary, and I defy him or any of his spokespersons to tell us the verifiable cost of living for a family of six—but it is clear now that he would rather punish the poor than to take a penny from those who have looted the country to the ground. Hence, no talk of recovering stolen moneys; not even from the oligarchs of the oil cartel that he has identified. But maybe this shouldn’t be surprising. As he knelt to receive divine guidance and protection—“touch not my anointed”—before Man of God Enoch Adeboye, he must have been reminded of that biblical wisdom: “unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance, but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath.” I hope, however, that he will remember the more uplifting message of caring for “the least of my brethren.” And until he does and rescinds this wicked and punitive decision to withdraw oil “subsidy,” his promise of paradise will prove as elusive to the masses as Christ said it would be for the rich man. A camel, if Jonathan has forgotten, will more easily pass though the eye of a needle than for the rich men whose loot he is protecting to do so.

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