Three months ago, I was going to write to advise that the Presidential Election proposed for February 14 2015 be shelved; and my logic was simple: why go to so much trouble and expense organizing a contest whose outcome was already pretty obvious? Since the South Africans are now painfully aware of our preference for ferrying humongous swathes of cash, we could head in that direction with the resultant savings to purchase badly needed ammunition for our soldiers. That way, we wouldn’t have to dispatch them to confront Boko Haram bare-handed and then turn around to sentence them to death for something cynically called mutiny.
I was quite aware that our laws have no place for my proposition but, heck, didn’t we make these laws? And have we lost the right and capacity to unmake or remake them?
President Jonathan was going to win once again not because he had performed excellently. On the contrary, if making promises and not fulfilling them were a felony, he should by now be cooling his heels in one of Nigeria’s many decrepit jails that were employed in shortening the lifespan of the mercurial Gani Fawehinmi of blessed memory. There were just no exciting alternatives to the lack-lustre offerings of the Jonathan hegemony. Even in the unlikely event that he expired as his boss Umaru Yar’adua had done, his replacement will represent a worst-case scenario. Mohammed Namadi Sambo has in five years said little that is of significance. He has done even far less.
On the opposition corner, except for a few comical innovations, unfolding events seemed like business as usual. Apart from the precocious Sam Ndah-Isaiah, all the presidential hopefuls had tasted executive powers and privileges: an experience that is evidently incurably addictive. For the gangling retired general and former head of state, Muhammadu Buhari, it would be his fourth attempt at becoming president; giving him the dubious tag of a serial contestant. Between when he was a military dictator in the mid-80s and now, he has done and said enough for us to know what he is capable of. At a time the polity is deeply divided along religious lines, Buhari’s candidacy was always going to be problematic: something the ruling party was already primed to exploit.
That the APC conducted a rancour-free presidential process was quite commendable and I was truly impressed, but the emergence of Buhari didn’t come as a surprise. Even in the critical matter of choosing a running mate, no tsunami was expected as the frontrunners were the routine suspects: Tinubu, Fashola, Amaechi, Fayemi, Rochas and Oshiomhole. At that point, I’m fairly certain the ruling PDP was already shopping for the chairman of the Presidential swearing-in committee. And then against the run of popular expectations, Buhari named Yemi Osinbajo as his running mate.
Let me make a confession here: I love keen contests and I usually prefer rooting for underdogs. And until the blast of the final whistle, I keep my eyes glued on the proceedings even if my team is getting a drubbing. And here is what a close contest always does: it keeps the contestants and the eventual winners on their toes. That way, they are under perpetual pressure to deliver the goods. I closely followed the American presidential election of 2000 between George Bush Jnr and Al Gore who was Vice President at the time. It was one of the closest in America’s convoluted political history and served adequate notice to the eventual winner, Bush, that he could ill afford any slip ups. I stand to be corrected but that nerve-wracking poll prepared him for the turmoil that was ahead: the bombing of the World Trade Centre. Bush’s admirable handling of the aftermath of that dark event represents the apogee of his political career.
Landslides, on the other hand, are like ill winds that blow nobody any good. Whether electoral or environmental, they eventually leave a trail of blood and tears. I was only a boy in 1972 when Richard Nixon won the American presidency by an unassailable landslide. Less than two years down the line, he was forced to resign under the cloud of the noxious effluvium generated by the Watergate affair. Undoubtedly, America had hit the nadir.
Back home, I vividly recall how in 1983, Shehu Shagari of the bombastic NPN dusted other presidential contestants by another record-shattering landslide. While Obafemi Awolowo warned of the necessity of adopting austerity measures in view of global economic realities, his counsel was roundly dismissed as the ranting of a disgruntled serial loser. With shouts of ‘buoyant, buoyant,’ a season of frenzied brigandage was inaugurated, and in three months, the soldiers had found enough excuse to come calling. General Muhammadu Buhari should know a thing or two about how that gig was broken up and it would be 16 long years before Nigerians are offered another semblance of democratic rule.
No, landslides are no good; but don’t take my word for it. Go enquire from the Afghans and Filipinos.
The duel of February 14 2015 will be an excruciatingly close one and it won’t produce a landslide; and that makes me really happy. The introduction of the dark horse, Yemi Osinbajo will have a lot to do with it. Apart from his eight-year stint as the Attorney General of Lagos State between 1999 and 2007, very little else is known about him, politically. This, in my opinion, is the greatest asset he’ll be bringing to the fray. People are going to want to listen to him, and if he can strike the right chords, then we’re in for one helluva election.
He’s a Professor of Law and any professor made in the University of Lagos has to be smart. The title of Senior Advocate of Nigeria he brandishes must be a confirmation of his erudition. That he’s also a pastor can only mean he’s equally focused and disciplined. I’ve heard him speak, and orator is what people like that are called. He writes even much better. In a contest where the others are barely articulate, he’ll be drawing quite some positive attention. Being properly married to Obafemi Awolowo’s granddaughter counts for something amongst Oduduwa’s descendants. I earned my Architecture degrees at Ife, and as a near-Awoist, I should know.
If Jega’s INEC will do the needful as pledged, then we have a game on our hands.
I can barely wait!
Olugu Olugu Orji mnia
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