In the past few weeks, in various ways and formats, I have been calling attention to the developing security situation in Nigeria, and urging our Southwest leaders and rulers to take steps to provide elevated security for our lives and property in our Southwest. Concerning this, I have addressed our six governors publicly once, and I hereby address them directly again today. I am respectfully but loudly calling upon Governor Babatunde Fashola of Lagos State, Ibikunle Amosun of Ogun State, Abiola Ajimobi of Oyo State, Raufu Aregbesola of Osun State, Olusegun Mimiko of Ondo State, and Ayo Fayose of Ekiti State. And my message is this: Do not ignore the signs of the times. Better to be safe than sorry! I am sure that almost all of the citizens of our states in the Southwest support this message.
At all times, we the people of the Southwest assume that you, our governors, are constantly and dutifully watching the changes in the security landscape in our states and in the country of Nigeria to which we belong. It is that assumption that enables each of us to step out confidently each morning and head for our various jobs, to dress up our children and send them off to school, to assemble in large numbers at our various places of work – as traders, teachers and learners, company workers, civil servants, transporters, artisans, etc, and to assemble in large numbers in our places of worship or in our sports arenas. In short, the fact that we all know that you are sitting in our governor’s offices and watching dutifully over the security of our land is one of the major reasons why we are able to live our lives normally.
For many months now, incessantly, increasingly, and from countless and increasing sources in Nigeria and abroad, there have been indications that security could soon be in jeopardy in Nigeria. We hear often of important and influential citizens in various parts of Nigeria (thankfully not including our Southwest) threatening to make Nigeria ungovernable, or saying that they have fighting forces that are ready for war. One was reported recently as threatening that if his group does not acquire power over Nigeria through the 2015 Nigerian elections, his group would “kill, maim, destroy and turn this country into Africa’s biggest war zone and refugee camp”.
But the threats do not end with words. Frequently these days we hear in the news that some influential Nigerians have been purchasing highly sophisticated weapons in various corners of the world. We also learn that Nigerian secret service authorities are frequently finding and seizing large accumulations of dangerous weapons illegally imported into Nigeria by some influential Nigerians, and that such discoveries of illegally imported weapons have been increasing fearfully since 2013. We also hear that weapons owned by even the Nigerian armed forces are being stolen and sold to all sorts of persons, including known terrorists and terrorist organizations.
Furthermore, Nigeria is now home to terrorism. Nigeria’s most notorious terrorist organization, Boko Haram, has succeeded so much as to claim a “caliphate” encompassing the three states of the Nigerian Northeast. More and more confidently, Boko Haram is active in many parts of the North and Middle Belt beyond the Northeast. Its threat to extend violence to the South is no longer merely a threat. Some Nigerian military authorities have acknowledged that Boko Haram appears to have established cells in many Southern towns and cities – including our Lagos, and including some of the Yoruba towns in Kwara and Kogi States. Recent breakings of prisons in Kogi State (and in even Ondo State) are believed to be the work of Boko Haram. Boko Haram has exploded a bomb in Apapa in Lagos, and may also have been the author of another bomb explosion in Ile-Ife. The Boko Haram danger is not only coming; it already has cells among us.
There has been increasing talk too about another kind of terrorist movement. More and more information is coming out that the ranks of the Fulani cattle herders who are increasingly penetrating further and further towards the south are being infiltrated by trained fighters who are armed with very sophisticated weapons. A former governor of Kaduna State sounded the alarm recently that these people are the beginnings of a new insurgency being developed by some powerful Nigerians, for a political purpose. Their presence, as well as their killings, is being increasingly reported in the states of the Southeast, South-south, and our Southwest. In fact, their killings have sparked public protests in parts of the Southeast, and the Enugu State House of Assembly recently debated a resolution concerning them. In our Southwest, they have spread into many places in Ekiti State, even southern parts of Ondo State, deeply into Ogun, Oyo and Osun States, and even as far south as Lagos State. They are alleged to have killed some persons on the Lagos-Ibadan expressway.
From the South-south, there is scary news too. The old, and presumably more sophisticated, terrorist groups there are reported to be stirring themselves and dramatically beefing up their armories.
All of these threats and terrorist manifestations now have their ultimate focus on the Nigerian presidential election due in February 2015. The prognosis for the election looks worse and worse day by day. Even some of the most fervent politicians and supporters of electoral candidates are expressing fears that the election might not hold at all, or that it could be disrupted at some point, or that it could produce a disputed outcome resulting in horrendous blood-letting. And, in any case, how is any polling going to be organized and held in the Northeast – and even in some parts of the rest of the North and Middle Belt where terrorists’ depredations are rampant? Even more troubling, is it likely, as things now stand, that any side declared by the intensely distrusted INEC to have lost the election will be disposed to accept that peacefully?
Finally, in the background to this growing Nigerian situation is the prospect of sharply escalating poverty among Nigerians in the coming months. The world price of crude oil, the back-bone of the Nigerian economy, is in free fall. From $107 earlier this year, it has fallen to $67.5, and it continues to fall. For other reasons, Nigeria’s largest oil customer, America, has terminated all oil purchases from Nigeria, and some other main buyers (like China) are reported to be making alternative arrangements that will also result in their ceasing to buy Nigerian oil. The Federal Government is hurriedly cutting its 2015 projections and budget; the Naira is falling erratically; and some state governments may soon fail outright. If the feared political fire does ignite in early 2015, is it not likely to acquire greater ferocity from the sharply increased poverty and hunger among Nigerians?
Our governors in the Southwest and their close circle of public officials need to begin now to make emergency security preparations. They owe us the duty of putting partisanship aside (at least at the highest level of government) and take security measures that all our people in each state can trust. There is a time for everything. At the level of critical executive function, this is a time to focus attention on security measures – even while your parties are busy on the usual partisan rivalries relating to imminent elections. In addition to whatever central arrangements you may make in each of our states, also take steps to encourage and assist our traditional rulers to revive our traditional community protection organs in our towns; and get the leaders of high-population places (churches, mosques, schools, stadiums, marketplaces, shopping centres, etc) to become security-conscious and to device security measures.
Even during the most frenetic of partisan contests, elected governments must still take actions needed to keep the people’s business running. Your partisan activities cannot be an excuse for your neglecting your vital executive duty of providing for the security of your people at this time. If the troubles don’t come, we lose nothing by being prepared. If the troubles come, being prepared will save a lot of our lives. I repeat: Better be safe than sorry.
I appreciate your services to our people.