A country that does not know its tipping points is doomed to remain on the perpetual cusp of attainability. One can only surmise that one of Nigeria's major issues stems from its inability to be definitive about its destination. Knowing where one wants to go is one thing; knowing when one gets there is indeed another. Nigeria needs a common sense indicator that will let us know when we can all stop saying "E Go Better".
If you were to ask a panel of international observers to tell you the first thing that comes to their minds when they hear the word “Nigeria”, their answers will of course vary. However, it won’t be surprising to find most of the responses flowing along the lines of Bad Business Deals, Uncouth Jihadist Terrorists, and Inarticulate Princes with an uncanny flair for electronic correspondence. This is definitely one image problem PhotoShop can’t fix.
Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country and largest economy, and at the same time, it houses Africa’s single largest concentration of people living in poverty; Paradox is probably not a strong enough word to describe it, especially when you find out more about its current state. Despite all of this, there remains cautious optimism among most citizens on its potential; it’s inspiring and unnerving at the same time.
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I assume that we all know the popular saying that goes “E Go Better” [It Will be Better], which simply means that the current situation, no matter how bad, will improve. It is a testament to the indefatigable - and almost inane - hope of the average Nigerian that “somehow” his or her situation will get a magical upgrade, cause-and-effect-be-damned, and everything will be ok in the end.
How will things get better, and what exactly does better mean? For a man living on 2 dollars a day, 3 dollars a day is better, but is that good enough? One of the biggest challenges we face in Nigeria isn’t just national aspiration, but definitive precognition. In a world with an average GDP per capita of US$13,000, we settle for a national vision [20:2020] that is comfortable with its citizens achieving barely a third of that Global average.
A nation that proclaims “the security and welfare of the people” as the primary purpose of its government should have a common sense indicator, or Index, to guide its efforts as it works to attain such a lofty height. An Index that has a direct correlation to the general wellbeing of the average man (and woman), as opposed to an aggregation of insipid macro-economic indicators from a bygone era. This Index must be definitive, scientifically-derived, and reasonably immune to political machinations. It must be a clear signal of meaningful aspiration and gradual accomplishment for all Nigerians.
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How will this Index be calculated? Four letters…P-Q-O-I: Presence and Quality of Opportunity and Infrastructure. If I was a tradesman residing in an urban neighborhood with good quality soft and hard infrastructure, and ample work opportunities, my standard of living will range from good to great. However, the same cannot be said if I moved many miles away to a predominantly rural neighborhood. Scoring Infrastructure, both for presence and for quality, then scoring Opportunity in like manner, and then finally aggregating and matching the final score against a known upper limit would give a good sense of the average wellbeing of residents.
Still, how is this going to work in a country known for killing good ideas with bad execution? The great thing about this Index is that it is a common sense metric with thresholds, and it is measured across all 774 Local Government Areas (or LGAs) that make up the Federation. Just like we all knew the difference between an A+ and a C- in school, you’ll know when a specific LGA scores high, average, or low. In addition, ongoing measurement, perhaps on a quarterly basis, will make it possible to track progress.
This effort isn’t meant to be a punitive exercise. A low score isn’t an indictment on an area and its people, it is an indicator of what needs to be done. If an LGA in the North East region of the country has an Index significantly lower than the national/regional average, it behooves the Federal Government to act and ‘equalize’ the area with its neighbors. Eventually, the entire country will become a ‘level playing field’, and even a girl child in Chibok can aspire to be a pilot, or a pharmacist, or an engineer, simply because there are numerous local opportunities and infrastructure she can leverage to create a livelihood at par with [or better than] the global average.
The Nigerian Dream Index could be a mechanism that ingrains a sense of direction into the National Psyche. It would be a welcome development to have a Federal, State, and Local Metric that will inspire sensible goals and drive targeted action by all branches of Government, with the express intent to make a meaningful and measurable impact on the lives of the average citizen. Essentially, this will be Big Data for Better Government in action.
This New Nigerian administration, led by Muhammadu Buhari, has some major challenges ahead of it, not least of which is dealing with ongoing corruption and bad governance. Nigeria is a tough country to run. I once quipped on social media that the kind of leader Nigeria needs to succeed should be an ideological cross (mix ratio notwithstanding) between Moses, Mandela, and Machiavelli. However, under the current circumstances, I can’t argue against adding Messrs Magellan to that list.
Frankly speaking, I'm sure none of us would board a bus, train, or plane if we didn't have a clear sense of where it was taking us to. Why should being the citizen of a country on a growth trajectory be any different? Even if you wanted to bring about Change, doing so without a benchmark is folly on a Sisyphusian level.
For now, I will engage myself with trying to figure out what components should make up such an Index, and what would be required to capture this across the many notable geographical points in our great country. So next time when any elected or appointed government official - from the President on down - is talking about how they "have done well", we can all actively engage them in a spirited debate based on real facts and figures.
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