The two “swingers” are Fatai Akinade Akinbade of the ADC and Adeoti Moshood Olalekan of the ADP. Coincidentally both are former Secretary to the State Government. Both can make or mar the chances of the real hopefuls.
The gubernatorial election in the State of Osun(so the sitting Governor rechristened it) is some days away. We have a record number of 48 candidates vying for the governorship seat. Of these 48 candidates, five are heavyweights, in the real sense of the word, the rest are mere makeweights. Of these heavyweights, three are real contenders while the other two are “swingers”(they are capable of influencing floating votes for or against the real contenders )
The two “swingers” are Fatai Akinade Akinbade of the ADC and Adeoti Moshood Olalekan of the ADP. Coincidentally both are former Secretary to the State Government. Both can make or mar the chances of the real hopefuls. The real hopefuls are Isiaka Adegboyega Oyetola of APC, Nurudeen Ademola Adeleke of PDP and Iyiola Omisore of SDP. These are the chances, the pluses and minuses of each of the contenders to emerge victorious.
ALHAJI ISIAKA GBOYEGA OYETOLA (APC)
Gboyega was, until recently when he resigned to join the governorship race, the chief of staff of the outgoing governor, Rauf Aregbesola. He will hope to win the election on the coattails of his boss.
PLUSES
OSUN CENTRAL AS STRONGHOLD
Osun Central Senatorial district has always been Aregbesola ’s stronghold. He had 39,983 votes against Omisore’s 11,513 in Osogbo and 26,551 against Omisore of PDP’s measly 8,483 in Olorunda both in Osun Central Senatorial District in 2014. Since Oyetola’s Iragbiji is the headquarters of Boripe Local Government in Osun Central he will hope to leverage on this
THE FEDERAL MIGHT
Oyetola’s task is somewhat made easier by the federal might which will throw its weight behind his ambition. This claim is substantiated by what the master of ceremonies said during the APC rally recently in Osogbo as ‘Yemi Osinbajo’s, the Vice-President’s, chopper was landing at the venue. The MC’s voice rose into a crescendo announcing “they intimidated us in 2014 with federal might now it’s our turn”
HIS MEMBERSHIP OF AREGBESOLA’S CABINET
His membership of the outgoing government is both a blessing and a burden, a curate’s egg sort of. But trust politician he can turn the seeming burden around by saying that having worked with his boss for years he now knows the problems of the State and he is ready to fix them.
MINUSES
TINUBU’S FACTOR
A fair chunk of the people of Osun are tired of the State being Tinubu ’s supposed Fiefdom, they are tired of being what they call VASSALS paying tribute to a certain political Lord. Tinubu himself made reference to this while addressing the mammoth crowd in Osogbo during the party’s rally saying he is no Ajele (tribute collector)
BACKLOG OF UNPAID SALARIES
Being a member of the outgoing government’s kitchen cabinet that has a backlog of, especially for senior civil servants, partly-paid and totally unpaid salaries to offset, affected workers and their dependents may register their displeasure by voting against Oyetola
ADEOTI’S FACTOR
Moshood Adeoti, a respected politician in Iwo, will play the role of a dog in the manger to the APC having defected to the ADP. Which means for the first time in a long while Iwo won’t be APC’s stronghold
ADEMOLA NURUDEEN ADELEKE
He is a scion of the Adeleke’s political dynasty in Ede and a senator representing Osun West Senatorial District. He won the by-election occasioned by his elder brother’s (Isiaka) death. He has won renown, perhaps notoriety, more for his brazen but mesmerizing footwork as a compulsive dancer than for his political exploits.
PLUSES
OSUN WEST’S CLAIM OF MARGINALIZATION
Ever since Osun state was created in August 1991, that’s 324 months ago Osun West has ruled for only 22 months. The Senatorial District produced only the first civilian governor, Isiaka Adeleke, whose administration was truncated by military coup after just 22months. The politicians from this bloc may decide to pool their clout, regardless of party affiliation, and present a common, concerted and united front to wrest the reins of power from the other two senatorial blocs. It’s been done before.
EDE AS RELIABLE STRONGHOLD
Forget about his O’level result scandal, what the people of Ede have for the Adeleke family is more than love; it’s a rabid allegiance. He has 95% of their votes in his clutches.
AN INFLUENCE THAT CUTS ACROSS RELIGIOUS DIVIDE
Though Ademola is from a strong Muslim family his elder brother Adedeji is a convert to Christianity. Deji is now a Christian of Seventh Day Adventist ’s extraction and a philanthropist too. Ademola can leverage on this to secure the votes of Christians in the State.
And the fact that he has reconciled with Akin Ogunbiyi, his rival at the PDP governorship primary is an advantage too
MINUSES:
Outside Osun, his alleged unresolved certificate scandal, especially among the elite, makes his candidature a no-no.
POLITICAL NEOPHYTISM
He is considered a spoilt brat who knows much about dancing and nothing about the nitty-gritty of governance by some people
FATAI AKINBADE’S FACTOR
The fact that there is no love lost between him and Akinbade who defected to ADC after losing the PDP primary to him means he should forget winning considerable votes from Ayedaade Local Government where the former SSG is influential.
IYIOLA OMISORE(SDP)
He is a former deputy governor and senator of the State. He lost the governorship race to Aregbesola in 2014 on the platform of PDP.
PLUSES
ILE –IFE AND ITS ENVIRONS AS STRONGHOLDS
He calls the shot in Ife East, Ife East and Ife Central and Ife North Local Governments. This was evident in the results of 2014 elections where he polled 24,500 votes in Ife Central as against Aregbesola ’s paltry 9,680 and 20,831 in Ife East against Aregbe’s 13,821.
HIS POLITICAL EXPERIENCE
Whether you like his face or not, Omisore is a veteran politician. He is the most experienced of the three major contestants and this may serve him in good stead in the forthcoming election. Other contestants could only ignore or underrate him at their own peril. Don’t forget that, by hook or by crook, he won the 2003 Senatorial election from the prison. He may want to add another feather to his cap and become the master of the impossible by winning this governorship election on the platform of a fringe party.
MINUSES:
SDP AS FRINGE PARTY
For the first time in his political career, Omisore is going into an election as a dark horse courtesy of his choice of political party. The truth is, this SDP- except in name- is not the same party on whose horse the late MKO Abiola coasted to victory ahead of Tofa’s soaring bird of the NRC. SDP, as it is today, is a fringe party and a spent force too. This was evident in the calibre of people Omisore presented during the party’s rally in Osogbo. Ever since the country’s return to democracy in 1999 the mainstream parties have always produced governors in the South-West except for the Labour Party’s Olusegun Mimiko who the factors that aided his victory are not available in Omisore’s case
IFE MAY NOT BE A FORMIDABLE STRONGHOLD
Now out of PDP Omisore has many forces to contend with. PDP has decided to shrink his sphere of influence by picking Albert Adeogun, another son of the Ife soil, as Adeleke’s running mate. Adeogun is the Federal representative of the IfeCentral/ East/North/South constituency. Aregbesola too has always been a problem for him in the Ife/Ijesha Axis. And there is the case of another late politician of note from that axis hanging around his neck like an albatross even though no court of law has pronounced him guilty.