I knew for a fact that the election was going to be a dynamic one, due to the internal crisis in the two major parties during the party primaries because not everyone could take a blow while lying down, it is typical human nature, we would kick from that lying position, hoping to hit the opponent with a very fatal blow from that sleeping position. That’s when we over estimate the power of our punches more than the strength of the opponent, this is what has proved to be the almost downfall of the APC in the South Western region states, incessantly sung into our ears as APC strongholds. The margin between the number of votes casted for APC and PDP clearly put it into perspective for all to see the trouble brewing in paradise for them. The win in Oyo and Ondo needs to sound as warning drums for the upcoming state gubernatorial elections.
"Buhari is a phenomenon," I heard the man shout at the top of his voice, I had to do look out for myself as I didn't know where the shout originated from and you can't be too careful on these Lagos streets.
I need not look too far, as I heard consistent chatter emanating from the people huddled together at the news stand close to the University of Suya, my mind that had raced some kilometers far came back, it was just a regular day for the regulars at the news stand that I had dubbed Free Readers' Gang. Well, I continued on to work, but I couldn't help but laugh about that brief encounter, considering INEC had just announced one-third of the result from the just concluded Saturday presidential election, so I wondered what the man knew about PMB that the other readers were missing that he had to pass across to them by shouting at the top of his lungs.
googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('content1'); });
I knew for a fact that the election was going to be a dynamic one, due to the internal crisis in the two major parties during the party primaries because not everyone could take a blow while lying down, it is typical human nature, we would kick from that lying position, hoping to hit the opponent with a very fatal blow from that sleeping position. That’s when we over estimate the power of our punches more than the strength of the opponent, this is what has proved to be the almost downfall of the APC in the South Western region states, incessantly sung into our ears as APC strongholds. The margin between the number of votes casted for APC and PDP clearly put it into perspective for all to see the trouble brewing in paradise for them. The win in Oyo and Ondo needs to sound as warning drums for the upcoming state gubernatorial elections.
The thrust of the crisis began from the choice of Mr. National Chairman, because rather than solve the issue for why everyone called for Oyegun's retirement, it only compounded it. How can a party chairman create chaos for his own party that will lead to distrust among party loyalists with party state primaries that is supposed to be at the discretion of the state executives, you can't always eat your cake and have it, it has too many consequences.
Let me start from Ondo, Akeredolu's candidacy was fraught with silent wars between Akeredolu and Jagaban, but it was resolved when Akeredolu took the same route as Fashola in 2011 to secure his re-election, he delved into grassroots of Ondo, campaigned for himself, speak for himself, courted their trust and it earned him Ondo people's mandate. It was at that point that APC should have known that Aketi will never take a bullet while laying down he would fight back with his last breath, it was from that part onwards that APC started waning in Ondo but the beating of the drum was too silent to be heard.
googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('content2'); });
I hope the loyality coming from Ile Iyi will not be tested soon because the hate they had for Fayose worked in APC's favour but time will tell, remember they hated Fayemi too at some point, the closing point of the Hate-Triangle is what I do not wish for because Ekiti ketes can be very vindictive.
Well, Osun people only voted for Buhari because they liked him, they were disappointed in the outcome of the #OsunDecides election because they were ready to end APC's reign in Osun but that rerun was what they never expected, it upturned plans. In the new future, they could become a potent weapon like #OtoGe movement.
Meanwhile, Ajimobi's peppered-kulikuli did not satisfy the people of Oyo, because they were very pained that despite the whispers of the dollars that exchanged hands between him and Penke, all they could share in it could only afford kulikuli. Well, they cooked a delicacy to appreciate Ajimobi's but they didn't serve the food for Ajimobi to eat alone, they filled it bowl enough that Senators Sunmonu and Akande-Adeola also got to taste from the hot delicacy. The two senators were Oyo's shining beacons at the Nigerian Senate being women politicians, but something changed along the way that made Oyo people reach a breaking point. I'm still trying to imagine the kind of strategy that would make APC retain its hold on Oyo people come March 9, they have bargained with Akala to get his votes, but will that bargain be worth it, March 9 will give a more clear insight.
Amosun is on the verge of creating a new hegemony for Ogun politics, he went high, when APC was throwing lower punches, in that, he is smarter than Senator Magnus from the riverine. Amosun was desperate for Akinlade to be his successor, crowning him a godfather in Ogun politics. Osoba was also very desperate to be a certified king-maker by all means. Each to his own device, they refuse to bend, but they were able to secure Presidency for APC in Ogun but whose dream comes true will make March 9 reality, an aftermath I look forward to. Though, the suspension is all smoke without mirror, considering the damage done may not be repairable.
Open Lagos will soon be a prominent hashtag because only a misstep and reaction is holding some APC loyalists away from exploding, I hear gongs already sounding for Lagos #OtoGe movement, I hope the king-maker can re-assess and make amends because I am one of those looking forward to a shift of APC monopoly in Lagos, because even the Northerners that own Dangote still prefer BUA cement to Dangote's. Uncle Feyi asked this fine question, "I wonder how much it is costing Lagos to elect Sanwo-Olu as Governor of Lagos" and I can't help but wonder along with him, because a self-interest is being pushed forward as a public interest, in my opinion though.
Well, Okorocha has his senatorial seat but at what expense, at the expense of making APC loose the stronghold he built for it. One thing Nigerian politicians fail to relate with well is that 'Power is transient,' I think Rochas has a lot to learn from Kwara's Oloye. It may blow up in his face when his in-law turns against him after tasting the kind of power that corrupts absolutely, maybe then Okorocha will learn a little. Okorocha being suspended is no breaking news, sometime ago, he used the same tactics on Uzodinma, to discredit him.
I have a new prayer point at the moment, may we never be like Senator Magnus (Amen), the kick he scored landed on APC Rivers' solar plexus, it can never recover anytime soon, maybe, in next four years. Amaechi will always pass off himself as a saint (Remember in House of Cards S04, what Claire's mum told Francis when he went to her house in Texas to dissuade Claire from leaving him?), most of the issues that APC Rivers has now can still be traced back to him. Now, APC has no hold on Rivers, years after years, and it may continue on, if Wike is never punished heavily through that video that indicted him. Oshiomhole's Edo became disloyal to him because he failed to integrate with the politics of the state, after years of being immense in it, what really is his stronghold?
When I had time to do the research, I checked up when Presidential Aspirants Coming Together (PACT) decided to choose a consensus candidate and discovered that Madam Oby was present at the event when the decision was made, but declared her intention for the office of the president after. I had to mention that part because it really was confusing how she was part of the process and they could not support Durotoye's candidacy but Sowore, Moghalu and her had to contest again under separate parties for same office. I don't know what happened behind the scenes but I felt let down that they were unable to build that third force when there was enough time, back then.
If I fail to talk about the Dollar raining business in Port-Harcourt, it would look like a great disservice to Nigerians. It so not a news flash that all the candidate contesting for the PDP primaries were not the best option as far as the party was concerned but they had to choose a well-known devil rather than look at others brandishing themselves as angels, who knew whether their angelic wings was given an 'alupaida (counterfeit)' shine. So, I can say that I understand why Atiku had to be the party's choice against PMB. One thing that made me fall in love with PDP was that they were able to put their house in order when they realised that was the only way to make the fight worth fighting till the end, it took so long but they did it and got it right at the end. The move earned the party some voters, as they felt they could still give its candidate a benefit of the doubt.
Then, came PMB with his missteps or need I say, health challenge rearing its head during the campaign because there are so many things that I do not want to take at face value when it comes to campaign run by the APC because I have been taught time and time again to always look at many sides of a story, in order to avoid the danger of a single story. There are videos showing these errings, agreed, but there'll surely be a narrative because these errings ceased abruptly at one point, how so? However, many opposition parties had series of commentaries to give on the errings of Mr. President, the Nigerian lexicon even added 'Governor-torial' to the list of new words.
Courtesy of Osinbajo's Next Level Engagement, many Nigerian middle income earners and low-income earners mended base with the PMB administration. One of things that played well with some set of Nigerian voters was that engagement because if you've had the opportunity of Osinbajo engaging you in a Yoruba conversation or any tete-a-tete on public policy and administration, you'd definitely align with him. Even some Trader moni pocket lining smothered a lot of indecisive mind in the market place, if we do away with the self-reighteous justification of the money being approves by NASS. Well, the PDP were short-sighted when it came to a strategy like that, you can never attack such engagements too much because it was working they could have done better by doing a follow-up with Obi re-touring the areas that Osinbajo covered with the engagements, re-engage them with talks, not money, that could have still swayed some voters. Politics like they say still remains grass-root as far as Nigeria is concerned.
Everyone I knew and chatted with after the selected Vice Presidents debated unanimously observed that 'if we were in saner climes, Osinbajo and Obi should have been running mates for the Office of the President.' Let's just leave it at that, we may never experience the saner clime now because we've been lagging behind in trying to create the perfect weather conditions for ourselves but the clime we have even needs tweaking so that it can serve us well, like Simi pointed out in that Twitter thread about a week ago, THE PROBLEM IS US....
Most of us also saw what happened on 'The Candidates' hosted by Kadaria Ahmed and could judge the performance of each of the candidates and running mates that graced that interview stage, sadly, in Nigeria's democracy, interviews and proposed policy plans does not necessarily determine who will emerge the winner in any elective post in the country. They even came for Madam Kadaria for being too lenient, too brutal, too harsh, too everything, forgetting that you may have personal ties to candidates but that should never stop you from being objective as a journalist, because if you cannot separate your emotion and personal conviction from your professionalism as a journalist, then you are really not a journalist or reporter, which is what Madam Kadaria proved to everyone on national TV.
For those that were determined to get Nigeria working again through Atiku's plan but never bothered to put extra effort to go out and vote for him, kudos! Atiku's purported social media supporters that campaigned for him online, voted for him in all the Twitter polls turned out to be full of Nigerians in the diaspora, that could not make the ultimate sacrifice of ensuring he wins by getting registered for a PVC, collecting it and travelling for miles back to Nigeria during the election season to vote for him. But check out PMB's followers and those that believed in his Next Level campaign, they went through hoops and hurdles just do ensure they voted for him, even those that believed in the agenda of other candidates did right by them. So, I saw no reason for the trading of blame concerning why a particular state would vote for a particular candidate more, no reason. Look at Edo, Oyo and Ondo states, why was it not alleged that it was rigged?!
This is our country, no matter how fiercely we try to deny it or push away the responsibility from ourselves, our actions or inactions has an effect on us as citizens, whether in the short or long run. It is what has led us here and it is what would lead us in the direction we would choose to go.
to be continued.......
googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('comments'); });