By now, you must have heard the fascinating tale, “How they catch monkeys in Brazil,” as graphically captured in James Hadley Chase’s “The Paw In The Bottle.”
“…They put a nut in a bottle, and tie the bottle to a tree. The monkey grasps the nut, but the neck of the bottle is too narrow for the monkey to withdraw its paw and the nut. You would think the monkey would let go of the nut and escape, wouldn’t you? But it never does. It is so greedy it never releases the nut and is always captured. Remember that story, Julie. Greed is a dangerous thing. If you give way to it, sooner or later you will be caught.”
Growing up in Esan, I learned the lesson early: animals are not very bright. In the wild and around our farms, we would set traps for them: antelopes, grasscutter, rabbits. The most important element of our traps was disguise, the purpose being to convince every animal that the location was safe. Sooner or later, an animal would buy the ruse, and be found waiting for you dead or dying.
Traps are a fascinating phenomenon. They have been used throughout time, sometimes with tragic consequences not only for the intended victim, but sometimes for the innocent and for millions.
Speaking of traps, then: Do you remember two months ago, in May 2024, when Wale Edun, Nigeria’s Minister of Finance, was frothing over at the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank?
Mr. Edun declared: “We have qualified for the processing just this week to the Board of Directors of the World Bank of a total package of $2.25B of what you can call ‘the closest you can get to a free lunch’--virtually a grant. It’s for about 10-20 years moratorium and about one per cent interest.”
It was a dead giveaway that the Minister chose the metaphor of a “free lunch.” Most traps are said to be on offer at lunch, specifically those that are supposedly free.
Following language received from the Nigerian government, the loan was couched in such bait-disguising terms as “financial infusion” and the provision of “immediate financial and technical support for Nigeria’s urgent economic stabilization efforts.” The bank deployed such smoke as “Nigeria Reforms for Economic Stabilisation to Enable Transformation Development Policy Financing Program” and “Nigeria Accelerating Resource Mobilization Reforms Program-for-Results.”
We have been here before. In July 2013, for instance, Minister of Aviation Stella Oduah, at the height of her powers and ahead of her disgrace from office, used similar imagery in describing “easy” Chinese loansNigeria was getting. “It is free money, so we’re happy.”
President Goodluck Jonathan that month led to China adelegation of ministers, including Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, seeking loans of about $3B. Ms. Oduah’s statement was in connection with a decision of the China Ex-Im Bank to lend $500m to Nigeria to build four airport terminals: a 20-year loan at a 2 percent interest rate with a 30 percent local content provision.
That sounds just like Mr. Edun today: a packagesweetened with a 40-year term, a 10-year moratorium and that one per cent interest ruse.
Swiftly up the tree then, Hadley Chase’s monkey was eager to get to the eating of that nut, but those who put the nut there are never in a hurry: they know that the monkey might see them coming one mile away, armed with swords and clubs and hammers, but will not flee.
The Bola Tinubu government, driven by something far less than the best interest of Nigeria, was wrapping its fingers around the money, which was being made available within one month. One month ago today, our people were celebrating their success.
According to Mr. Edun’s narrative, $2.5B easy money, almost no strings attached.
But Nigeria is being sold into slavery. As proof, I provide the video now circulating in Nigeria, of an analyst of “The Rohr’s Team,” who are consultants inDomestic and International Investment, reviewing what must be called a national scandal.
A few of his assertions:
• This loan brings Nigeria's total debt obligation to over $110 billion, and smacks of an “economic hitman” transaction.
• While the loan seems fair—at an interest rate of 1%, to be paid off over 40 years with no payment due for over 10 years—it must be paid back in Western currencies. With the naira losing significant value every year, this loan will end up costing Nigeria tens of billions of dollars within 10 years, as the effective interest rate is 1% plus the depreciation of the naira relative to the US dollar.
• In the past year, the naira depreciated by 50%, meaning the interest rate would be 51%. If the naira depreciation continues, this is an economy-destroying debt obligation because payments don't start until 2034 when all the current politicians will be long gone.
• If the naira depreciation is only 10% per year, that means that by 2034, the principal in this loan will effectively grow from $2.5B to $7B.
• The payments will then be the equivalent of a billion dollars a year and continue for 30 years.
• Translation, in English: for the $2.5B today, Nigeria is agreeing to pay the Western banks $30B under a 10% inflation rate. It could be considerably more.
The loan comes with other concessions: Nigeria will have to keep a large portion of it as foreign reserves;end subsidies on oil, which will hurt the economyfurther; and enact reforms to make it easier for Western banks to compete with domestic banks, thereby contributing to long term insolvency.
[“Economic hitman,” refers to “Confessions of an Economic Hitman,” a memoir by the American economist John Perkins. “I'm haunted by the lies I told back then about the World Bank,” Perkins wrote. “I'm haunted by the ways in which that bank, its sister organizations, and I empowered US corporations to spread their cancerous tentacles across the planet.”]
This is the prostitution Edun said Nigeria had “qualified” to provide, without breathing a word about the additional slavery into which he was enlisting our children. Perhaps he did not even read the agreement, including that his government will have no access to most of the loan—but maybe just enough to buy presidential jets and SUVs—and that 10 years from this heinous crime, our children will have to find at least one billion dollars per year—for 30 years—to service the $2.5B betrayal. But this is what happens the moment the monkey climbs up that tree and wraps its paw around that nut.
You hear that, Julie? This loan—indeed all foreign loans and related policies now being indiscriminately purveyed in the name of Nigeria—are unpatriotic and must be rejected. That is Renewed Hopelessness.
The path for Nigeria lies in consolidating our resources and permitting the advantages of our soil and the capacities of our people. Give us security. Get out of the way.
It is not what Nigeria lacks, that it must acquire or borrow. It is what it has, that is either ignored or stolen from her. That includes political power, human capacity, and time.