This surge is also attributed to voters' positive assessment of Trump's presidency. The new survey, released just three weeks before Election Day, shows other key findings, including declining popularity for Harris compared to last month, following a significant summertime boost.
The latest national NBC News poll reveals a statistical tie between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, with Trump gaining momentum from Republicans returning to support him after a tough debate last month.
This surge is also attributed to voters' positive assessment of Trump's presidency. The new survey, released just three weeks before Election Day, shows other key findings, including declining popularity for Harris compared to last month, following a significant summertime boost.
It also shows a substantial gap exists between support for Harris and Trump among men and women and that abortion has emerged as a top motivating issue for voters in the 2024 election.
Additionally, The Napolitan Institute's national survey reports a tie at 49% for both candidates. These findings suggest a closely contested election.
“As summer has turned to fall, any signs of momentum for Kamala Harris have stopped,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “The race is a dead heat.”
McInturff said “headwinds” for Harris have helped narrow the presidential contest, including concerns that the vice president doesn’t represent change from President Joe Biden and voters seeing Trump’s presidency in a more positive light than Biden’s.
“She is asking for another term from the incumbent party,” McInturff said of Harris.
“The challenge for Kamala Harris: Can she meet the moment and fill in the blanks that voters have about her?” asked Horwitt, the Democratic pollster.
“The challenge for Donald Trump: Can he make the case that the chaos and personal behavior that bothered so many about his first term will not get in the way of governing and representing America?” he added.
“The next month will tell whether the candidates can meet these challenges,” Horwitt said.
The latest NBC News poll reveals a dead heat between Harris and Trump, with both candidates tied at 48% in a head-to-head matchup. This is a significant shift from September's poll, where Harris led Trump by 5 points, 49% to 44%.
However, it's worth noting that the September result was within the margin of error.
When third-party candidates are included, Trump slightly edges out Harris, 47% to 46%, with 7% of voters either undecided or supporting other candidates. This too marks a change from September, where Harris held a 6-point lead in the expanded ballot.
The poll, conducted from October 4-8, suggests a tightening race between the two major-party candidates. It's a stark contrast to the previous month's numbers, which had Harris in the lead.
With just weeks to go until Election Day, this new poll adds fuel to the already intense speculation surrounding the 2024 presidential election.
Though Harris and Trump are tied, when broken down by demographic groups, the numbers tell a different story.
Key demographic breakdowns show that regarding racial groups, Harris enjoys overwhelming support from Black voters (84% to 11%). As regards age groups, Harris leads among younger voters aged 18-34 (57% to 37%).
As for education level, Harris has an edge among white voters with college degrees (55% to 41%).
It noted that for geographic location, Trump dominates among rural voters (75% to 23%) while for gender gap, a significant gap exists between male and female voters, with women supporting Harris by 14 points (55% to 41%) and men backing Trump by 16 points (56% to 40%).
These disparities highlight the complexities of the election, with various groups showing strong preferences for each candidate.