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China’s Population Falls For Fourth Consecutive Year As Baby Bonuses, Three-Child Policy Fail To Stem Decline

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January 19, 2026

Data released on Monday showed the population fell by 3.39 million to about 1.4 billion by the end of 2025, representing a faster decline than recorded in the previous year, BBC reports.

China's population has continued to decline, with official figures showing the country shrank for the fourth consecutive year in 2025 despite government measures to encourage childbirth.

Data released on Monday showed the population fell by 3.39 million to about 1.4 billion by the end of 2025, representing a faster decline than recorded in the previous year, BBC reports.

The figures showed that the birth rate dropped to 5.63 per 1,000 people, the lowest level since the Communist Party took power in 1949, while the death rate rose to 8.04 per 1,000 people, the highest since 1968.

The latest decline comes as Beijing struggles with an ageing population and a sluggish economy, prompting renewed efforts to persuade young people to marry and have children.

China scrapped its decades-long one-child policy in 2016 and replaced it with a two-child limit. When births failed to recover, authorities announced in 2021 that couples would be allowed to have up to three children.

More recently, parents have been offered 3,600 yuan (£375; $500) for each child under the age of three, while some provinces introduced additional baby bonuses and extended maternity leave.

Some policies have proved controversial, including a new 13% tax on contraceptives such as condoms, birth control pills and devices, which has raised concerns about unwanted pregnancies and HIV rates.

China’s fertility rate remains among the lowest in the world, at around one birth per woman, below the replacement rate of 2.1, similar to levels seen in South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan.

A 2024 report by the YuWa Population Research Institute in Beijing said China is one of the most expensive countries in which to raise a child.

Some residents cite lifestyle pressures.

“I have very few peers who have children, and if they do, they're obsessed about getting the best nanny or enrolling the kids in the best schools. It sounds exhausting,” a Beijing resident told the BBC in 2021.

The United Nations expects China’s population to continue shrinking, warning that the country could lose more than half of its current population by 2100, with far-reaching economic and social consequences. 

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