In a lengthy post on X (formerly Twitter) on Sunday, Keyamo said Kwankwaso had “boxed himself into one of the tightest corner in his political career” by refusing to accept what he described as an earlier olive branch offered by the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
Nigeria’s Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, has declared that former Kano State governor and leader of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, is fast losing national political relevance and risks being reduced to a “local champion” unless he forges an alliance with a major political party.
In a lengthy post on X (formerly Twitter) on Sunday, Keyamo said Kwankwaso had “boxed himself into one of the tightest corner in his political career” by refusing to accept what he described as an earlier olive branch offered by the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
“I have always admired Engr. Mohammed Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso from a distance, but he appears to have boxed himself into one of the tightest corner in his political career simply because of his refusal/indecision to take the Olive Branch that was offered him by APC much earlier. Let’s break down his predicament,” Keyamo wrote.
According to the minister, Kwankwaso harbours presidential ambition but currently lacks a viable platform to actualise it in 2027.
“FACT NO. 1 - Kwankwaso wants to be President, but none of the major political parties will pick him as a candidate in 2027. APC & PDP are going South & ADC’s ticket is Atiku’s to lose. Atiku is the owner of ADC (argue with your keypad, if you like). Only a major political Party can win a Presidential election in Nigeria,” he stated.
Keyamo further dismissed the electoral strength of the NNPP, describing it as a “one-State Party” whose hold on Kano may collapse before 2027.
“NNPP is still a one-State Party and with the recent wave of defections from NNPP (including the Governor himself), it is doubtful if it can maintain its grip on Kano in 2027. A leader is only as strong as his devoted lieutenants,” he said.
The minister argued that Kwankwaso would also not support another northern presidential candidate because doing so would effectively end his own ambition.
“FACT NO. 2 - Kwankwaso WILL NOT support a Northern candidate because that ends his own Presidential ambition since he MAY have to wait for another 16 years after 2027 to get a shot at the Presidency… That’s a gamble he WILL NOT TAKE. He will be 86 years old by then. So, this entirely rules out an ATIKU-Kwankwaso cooperation in 2027,” Keyamo wrote.
He added that Kwankwaso’s only realistic pathway to the presidency now lies in 2031, but warned that any alliance formed in 2027 would be decisive.
“FACT NO. 3 - Based on the above calculations, the only pathway for Kwankwaso is in 2031, but the alliance he builds in 2027 will be crucial to his ambitions in 2031. If his grip on Kano slips in 2027, it will water down his clout and influence in 2031 to be handed a Presidential ticket by any of the major Political parties,” he said.
Keyamo listed the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the APC and the Labour Party as the only possible platforms left for Kwankwaso, but said each option comes with serious obstacles.
“With the PDP now gasping for breath, it may be easier for Kwankwaso to return to PDP on some terms… And that will signal the death of NNPP. But with the zoning of the Presidential ticket to the South, that would mean a suspension of his 2027 Presidential ambition till 2031,” he noted.
On the APC option, Keyamo said Kwankwaso would be unable to dictate terms.
“The APC is therefore not so desperate for a Kwankwaso in Kano, but would be glad to welcome him into the Party… However, the attraction of the APC for him is that the APC still has the national spread and structures to retain power in 2031. So, an APC option for Kwankwaso will also mean a suspension of his Presidential ambition till 2031,” he wrote.
He also ruled out a Labour Party vice-presidential bid for Kwankwaso.
“The 2027 Labour Party option for Kwankwaso is narrower because he simply cannot and will not run as Vice-Presidential candidate to Peter Obi. Take that to the bank,” Keyamo added.
Concluding, the minister warned that Kwankwaso stands at a decisive political crossroads.
“FACT 5: From the scenarios above, Kwankwaso is in a very difficult political crossroads. The decision he makes now may retire him permanently from politics or revive his Presidential ambition,” he said.
“But one fact is clear: just like late Buhari and the CPC, without a handshake with another major Party, he will remain a local champion with his NNPP, but that too may soon vanish with the present predicament of the Party in Kano.”