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Nigeria 2011 Elections: The Worst That Could Happen

November 7, 2010

Past elections and indeed the state of affairs in Nigeria has made a lot of Nigerians lose faith in the country’s electoral process. Heck, I’ll admit, I never had faith - not to talk of losing it! Since I turned 18, I have had two chances to vote in Nigerian elections.

Past elections and indeed the state of affairs in Nigeria has made a lot of Nigerians lose faith in the country’s electoral process. Heck, I’ll admit, I never had faith - not to talk of losing it! Since I turned 18, I have had two chances to vote in Nigerian elections.

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I did not, for two reasons. I did not think my vote would count and I was deathly afraid to come out to vote on Election Day!  I was not in the country for the 2007 elections but you guessed right – even if I was, wild horses could not have dragged me out to vote on that day. Disgusted with my attitude? Sorry, it’s the truth.

I felt vindicated when I read the NDI report on the 2007 elections (the National Democratic Institute is a non-profit organization with the stated objective of working to strengthen and expand democracy worldwide). NDI delegates concluded in April 23 2007 that “in many places, and in a number of ways, the electoral process failed the Nigerian people.” Polling stations in many states opened hours late, closed early or failed to open at all. In majority of the states visited, voter registers were not displayed; there were inadequate supplies of voting materials or ballot papers or get this -  Ballot papers that did not include all of the candidates. Talk about sabotage!

Being someone who fasted and prayed about Nigeria all through my years in University (please do not laugh at me – I did what I thought would help), after nearly developing an ulcer, decided God was not deaf and must have heard us all these years. I reflected on what I had been doing wrong and decided it was time to act – but first, I needed to get me a job to sustain me. Many years passed (ahem). I spent most of it shaking my head at negative news coming out of Nigeria.

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I suddenly realised how selfish I had become – I had reached a financial equilibrium but thankfully I found it was not enough. I loved my country. I knew we had such potential.  So I had been slightly lucky (I am not swimming in it but I am grateful I can sustain myself) – what about the thousands of others who were not lucky enough to catch a break. Surely everyone deserves a chance to make something good for themselves in life? I knew Nigeria was not giving that chance to most of its citizens. I got involved in a civil society, started making the tiniest of contributions and realised if we all just did that little bit, a synergy of efforts would go a long way.

So here I am, compiling a list of what could go wrong, researching on what has been done to address these risks and the practical steps that can be taken by citizens and public servants. It is hoped my little thoughts here will inform some people and give them ammunition when trying to get that friend to venture out on Election Day; and dare I hope, catch the attention of some law enforcement agents and electoral officers?

Violence - Before Elections

The worst case known to this writer, so far this quarter, is one where at least 30 were killed in two rural villages in Nigeria's Cross River state on the weekend of Oct 22. Some residents told the BBC (from which the news item was read) that the violence may be politically motivated. They said some local politicians were engaged in a power struggle ahead of next year's elections. It was reported that three soldiers deployed to maintain peace in the area were among those killed.

The villages are in the oil-rich Niger Delta region, which is notorious for its armed gangs. (Niger Delta politicians originally created the gangs by arming young men to use as their private armies and to rig elections.)

Pockets of violence have been reported in political rallies, as well as assassination threats. In Oyo State it is widely reported that the incumbent wants a second term at all cost. The Alaafin went as far as reporting that a policeman was paid N10m by Alao Akala to assassinate him.

Is it any wonder that the sales of cutlasses has shot up in recent times?

This is the time to identify trouble spots, and for heaven’s sake, make sure there are more than “3 soldiers” keeping the peace!

Violence - On Election Day

Voter intimidation.  That is a tough one! In the 2007 elections, NDI delegates noted incidents of improper conduct by security agents, the stuffing and snatching of ballot boxes, intimidation of voters by party agents and vote buying. Not one single person has been convicted.

Heart cry to our law enforcement agents – Please help us feel safe.

Would intimidated citizens officially report such incidents? Can we rely on intelligence reports? Can these reports secure convictions? But the deed would have already been done?

Well, one good thing is that the voting system approved by the Commission is the Open-Secret Ballot System (OSBS). Hopefully this will give some privacy and reduce voter intimidation.

In the FAQs on the INEC website, they claim to be working in collaboration with the Security Agencies to provide security cover to its men and materials at all the 120,000 polling centre located nation-wide. The arrangement is intended to forestall any violent disruption of polling. It is hoped it will also forestall forceful removal of ballot boxes from the polling centres.  They plan to provide security at all counting/collation centres.

Let it be known that citizens are not going to suddenly start trusting our law enforcement agents on the day of the election. We need to see them working on behalf of citizens starting from now. Law enforcement agencies should make widely available special emergency help lines to call to report any voter intimidation incidents.  Citizens should ensure they capture any form of evidence that this is going on. These may come in useful in the event that the election is challenged in a court of law.

Non-Nigerians (people from neighbouring countries), or under aged people voting to swell numbers

I am from the South West, and the sour grapes story told me by avid UPN supporters (back in the Obafemi Awolowo - UPN versus Shehu Shagari - NPN days) that the North always won because they swelled their numbers by registering cows and goats (ahem – if you believe that you’d believe anything). A more plausible one could be people from neighbouring countries being registered (Even with that, I am not buying).

Well, for the avoidance of doubt, immigration seems to doing something. Only very recently Babayo Alkali, head of immigration for Borno state said "We have so far repatriated almost a thousand illegal immigrants from neighbouring Niger, Chad and Cameroon who have been in Nigeria without valid documents. This becomes necessary in view of the approaching elections and the current security situation in Borno state." The other State heads of immigration need to sit up. They should not wait till there are violent religious clashes (as was the case with Borno state) before action is taken.

Not much they can do about 16- 17 year olds registering though.  We are not there yet. However, citizens can give tips to the law enforcement agents based on past experience. Towns and villages to neighbouring countries should be especially on the lookout.

Multiple Voting

It is well known that the rigging process begins from voters’ registration. We have heard of Mike Tyson and Mohammed Ali, Nelson Mandela, Bill Clinton and Jesse Jackson, Michael Jackson and Barack Obama being on the old register.  The DDC machines to be used for voters’ registration, which cost us a fortune by the way, are supposed to be able to detect multiple registrations. 5KVA generators are being supplied together with the machines as well as back up batteries to address power problems. 5 fingers are required for registration. The database is supposed to detect duplicate fingerprints. It is hoped toes will not be used to circumvent the process. That said, here is a mitigating factor - The Poll Assistant will apply indelible ink to the appropriate finger of the voter's left hand depending on the type of election. Last time I got an indelible ink mark was at a night club!

False results

According to Mike Igini (Cross River state electoral commissioner) during a talk he gave very recently, the first case in Nigeria elections where results were announced whilst voting was going on occurred as far back as 1957.

According to INEC, Votes cast at all elections will first be sorted out and counted by the Presiding Officers at the polling centre level. Total votes scored by each candidate in that polling centre will also be announced to the hearing of all present. How about those wards cut off from the rest of Nigeria e.g. a polling centre in Cross river state where access is by trekking 6hrs or by helicopter? Will special consideration be given to such areas considering that such areas are susceptible?

Corrupt Electoral Officers

There is a proposal to have an electoral malpractices commission based on evidence  from SSS (hey, at least it is being considered!)

According to Mike Igini the State Electoral Officer for Cross Rivers State, INEC is relying on the SSS to arrest and detect cases of electoral malpractices. There is a proposal to have videos recording of elections. INEC says funding is the problem. INEC should understand that we are short of cash. I respectfully say they should think of another solution. There have been reported cases of foul play regarding the number of polling stations (120,000) and the cost of the DDC machines already. Any call for more funding will be seen as a ploy to embezzle funds.

Lest I am criticised for finding fault rather than proffering solutions (I follow the golden rule given by my brother when I was young – if you do not have a better solution, shut up) I suggest the concept of ‘mystery Shoppers’. Electoral auditors should make clandestine visits to polling stations during the registration process and weed out the bad eggs. By the time you make an example of a few officers, there will be less inclination towards electoral malpractice.

 “Political Persecution”

It has been the game since the first elections in 1957. Apologies to my Igbo brothers but this is the only documented evidence I could find.

Apparently according to a Time Magazine article of Mar 25, 1957, our revered Zik was sticky fingered. In January 1957, a tribunal headed by Nigeria's Chief Justice found that Zik, in his function as Premier, had transferred public money, equivalent to one quarter of the 1955-56 revenue of the Eastern Region of Nigeria, to his own bank, African Continental Bank, which he controlled, thereby saving it from collapse. "Guilty of misconduct as a minister," declared the tribunal.

“Shrewdly he called a general election, selflessly offered the British Colonial Office all his shares in the African Continental Bank (the Colonial Office politely declined), and hit the stump. While tireless British colonial officials went into the jungle to persuade 3,000,000 eligible voters to register, and to show them how to cast their ballots, whispers went forth that the tribunal had been an "imperialist plot" to discredit the Nigerian nationalist movement, that Zik had in reality been building a bank for Africans which would "break the British banking monopoly””

The reason for the above story is whereas they may be actual cases of political persecution, there can also be spin doctors whose stock in trade is to twist any incident good or bad to make their political choice look good.

Citizen journalism on the rise with credible websites such as SaharaReporters reporting those stories which otherwise would have been buried for whatever reason (brown envelopes, fear of reprisal etc). Citizens should be more aware and learn to sift information coming from Media houses. For example, the following information is useful. The Daily Champion is owned by Chief Iwuanyanwu, The Sun newspapers - Orji Kalu, The Nation  by Bola Ahmed Tinubu; the Compasss by  Gbenga Daniels and the Independent by  James Ibori. You know what I am getting at (wink)…

Like an activist said at a recent SNG event, what choice can be made between two devils? That hardly needs elaboration.

Parties should ensure there are credible candidates. The onus falls on opposition parties to the PDP to ensure that the winner of the PDP presidential party is wrong in their assumption that they will automatically become President of Nigeria.

The opposition parties need to listen to the people and feel the pulse of the nation. The only way they can topple the opposition is to provide an alternative choice. A clear difference in character, and antecedents to that of aspirants in the PDP.

Parties need to further expand and develop their policies ( A policy is a course of action adopted and pursued ) They need to clearly state their course of action as regarding issues that are of interest to Nigerians .  The policies will serve as a baseline to measure parties as well as their elected public officers. This will provide Nigerians the choice of who they trust will deliver on the promises that have been made.

The civil society should renew calls to ensure that political parties clearly define their policies and when the time comes, each aspirant will declare their manifesto (A manifesto is a public declaration of principles and intentions) which should of course be in line with that that of their political party.

Voter Apathy

The mother of all disasters! People not coming out to vote or register. That is the worst that can happen in my opinion.

There have been voting awareness rallies and we need more of them. Various social internet networking groups have sprung up encouraging people to register. A rally, which also held simultaneously in Ibadan and Ijebu-Ode, was organised by the Justice Development and Peace Commission (JDPC), which is a social development arm of the Catholic Church, with support from the Catholic Diocese of Lagos. It is also reported that major religious leaders have been calling on followers to register and vote on Election Day.

All religious leaders should borrow a leaf from the Catholic Church and make the importance of voting a part of their sermons. Else, their congregants run the risk of contracting an ulcer from too much praying and fasting on the same issue.

Citizens should make it part of their daily conversations. When you go the market, ask the ware seller whether he/she has registered to vote. Ask your chauffeur. Ask your barber/hairdresser. Educate them on how easy it will be. Lead by example and be one of the first to register in January.

It should be noted that the major stakeholders are the citizens. Citizens assume the responsibility of guarding and protecting their votes.

The worst that can happen? A full scale bloody war! Please do not let it get to that!

Yea! Like you would have read the article if it had a different title.

Definition of a person not voting today: a-pathetic person. (Bill Cosby)

May God Save Nigeria.



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