Enough has been said and many speculations have been made about the votes or the pattern of voting in the South-East and the South-South, the domain of the incumbent President, and the President-elect, Mr Goodluck Jonathan.
Enough has been said and many speculations have been made about the votes or the pattern of voting in the South-East and the South-South, the domain of the incumbent President, and the President-elect, Mr Goodluck Jonathan.
Speculations are rife, and are, in fact, flying all over the place, that there was no actual voting or votes in the area, but simply vote allocations. This is knocking the truth on its head, which stems from irrational analysis or illogical deductions or lack of analytical deductions of the reality of the situation and the reality on the ground.
Nothing makes it more poignant, than when the respected Professor Sagay, a Legal Luminary and Professor of Law and a constitutional Law expert had this to say, in a recent interview by an on-line media, Sahara Reporters, “Somebody gets 190,000 in a hotly contested election and the next person to him gets 3,000 to 4,000. That is not natural. It means those figures were allocated and not natural.” This postulation or summation of his, calls for concern. It calls for concern because the Professor has a great followership, and he is referred to or seen as an expert. Some people believe in him and they can be easily influenced by him. Why is it not natural for me to win a contest in my home and amongst my household and score nearly 100 percent? How unnatural is that? How unnatural is it for me to receive or score no vote at all in Prof Sagay’s home or household, in a popularity contest, while he scores 100%? That is quite natural, if you ask me!
Those people making such conjectures have not really sat back to analyse things properly. They have not asked why the pattern of voting was the way it was in those areas. Take the South-South, for example, this is the domain or backyard of President Jonathan. It is synonymous to his home or his household. As a minority, this is the first time anybody from this zone would be vying for the biggest and prizest job in the country. Will they throw away this chance and a once in a life-time opportunity? Bringing it home, would members of a family throw away the life-time chance of seeing the head or a member of their family miss out on an opportunity because of them? Who, in their home, would lose a popularity election to an outsider? Just as the saying goes, ‘monkey no fine, but him mama like am so’, it will be unthinkable for me to come to anybody’s house and I will expect to beat them or win them in their household.
Extending this further to the USA, one can conveniently say (albeit, a guess work, and without any empirical data) that nearly 99% of blacks in America so wanted President Obama to win badly. Taking it further, about the same number or percentage of blacks around the world, and from mainly Black Africa, wanted President Obama to win the American Presidential elections. Why was this? The answer is simple, and not far-fetched. It is because they identified with him as one of their own, first or foremost, and secondly, because he has a modicum of intelligence and he held his own, not minding the fact that he did not even have ample experience of public office. In order words, he appealed to them, firstly, because they belong to the same race, and secondly, because he had brains and said the right things and he pitched well with them.
President Jonathan, in the just concluded elections, was the only candidate, talking about the major Political parties, that was from the South, and secondly, that came from the South-South. Thirdly, he was the incumbent President. If any party or candidate was going to defeat him, or earn votes in his domain, they had to be way, way better than him. They had to have campaigned vigorously in those areas or in his domain. They had to have built very solid structures in those areas and offered his area something more than, simply, “Please vote for me”. What did Buhari and the CPC offer the area, the South-South, to qualify him to earn their votes? Nothing! Absolutely nothing! He neither offered them the Vice-Presidency, nor assured them that he would run an inclusive Government that would offer them or guarantee them that, at least, about 60 percent of Government Ministerial posts would go to their area. This is politics, come on, now! He should be bringing something to the table, if he wanted the people from the South-South to reject their son or kinsman. I am not referring to money or any such financial inducement, but I am talking about him offering them real stuff and something tangible. Real programs, substance or positions. He must be bringing, or seen to be bringing something to the table.
Buhari was not a good or an astute politician, by my estimation, and President Jonathan was, by miles, far ahead of him. Buhari/CPC offered the South-West the Vice-presidency, and even then, he still lost and failed woefully in that area, talk less, of the South-South, that he neglected and offered nothing, besides asking them not to vote for their son or to reject President Jonathan. What did Buhari and his party, the CPC, take the South-South or the South–East for? Did he take them as FOOLS? The South-West, through Obasanjo, had governed the country for 8 years, in the last 12 years. What about the South-South and the South-East? Don’t they deserve the Presidency or the Vice-presidency too? Why did he, or the ACN, not choose either a South-South or a South-Easterner as their vice-presidential candidate? Only the PDP offered the people in that area, the chance of having their son, not just as the Vice-President, but the ultimate prize of President! Why would they not take or grab the chance and seize it excitedly and come all out to vote and vote en masse?
The same reasoning, as above, was also responsible for the overwhelming support that President Jonathan had in the South-East, and resulted in the nearly 100% votes he scored in that area, made up of mainly the Igbos. The other major parties did not care for them or provide for them, in selecting the President or the Vice-president. The Igbos or the South-East, even though, they are the most marginalised, of the 3 major ethnic groups in the country, none of the parties catered for them and their interests, or took them into consideration. The closest party, therefore, that came close, is again the PDP. President Jonathan is their neighbour, if not their brother. Moreover, he is the only Presidential candidate from the South, amongst the other Presidential candidates sponsored by the 4 major political parties. Plus, he is also from a marginalised region, just like the Igbos. This factor is a very important factor. There is no doubt that the Igbos have been the most marginalised group in Nigeria, comparing it with the 3 major ethnic groups. The Igbos or the South-East really should be producing the next President of Nigeria, as the other major groups have each had a turn.
Even at that, looking at the set up or the structures of the other major Political parties, the Igbos are not even in their equation or estimation, at least, not for the next 12 or 16 years. Take the CPC, for instance, assuming General Buhari won the elections and went for a second term, come 2015, and his Vice-President, ‘Pastor’ Tunde Bakare, also did his own 8 years, that means it will never be the turn of the Igbo man or the South-East, in this musical chairs or chess game, between the North and the West, in the foreseeable future. The same can also be said about the ACN, who also had a Presidential and Vice-Presidential candidate from the North and West, respectively. Wherein, did the Igbos or the South-East come in, in their estimation? Why then should the South-East, or the Igbos, vote for a Political party or parties that does not have their interest in mind?
But the most important factor, that I believe was responsible for his overwhelming victory in the area or zone, was the fact that the dominant Political party in the area, the APGA, the Ikemba’s party, endorsed him and asked their members and followers to vote for President Jonathan, as they were not putting forward any Presidential candidate. Jonathan, therefore, got all the APGA votes, along with the votes from those supporting the PDP traditionally. In other words, he had two huge block votes, instead of one (for the PDP). Tell me why he would not ‘clean up’ in that area.
Moreover, President Jonathan, as a master politician and a good tactician, had taken care of the South-East or the Igbos and their leaders. President Jonathan had taken care of the leader of APGA, and the de facto leader of the Igbos, the Ikemba of Nnewi, by appointing his wife into his Government. In other words, the President had offered them ‘something’ or patronage, unlike the other parties, that did not care for them or look their way at all. President Jonathan also pitched with the Igbos and identified with them. All of a sudden, he remembered his Igbo roots and his Igbo names. Suddenly, we learnt his names also included Ebele and Azikiwe. Come on now, it was very easy to sell that to the average or the illiterate Igbo in the village. It was easy to sell it to them that he is their son. And that their son, President Goodluck Ebele Azikiwe Jonathan was also among the contestants for the Presidency of Nigeria, and that he was running alongside General Muhammadu Buhari, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu and Shekarau. That is an easy sell!
Not also discountenancing or taking away the power of incumbency that the President rode on across the country, which ensured that he gained in-roads into the North, the West and every part of Nigeria. As the incumbent, he was the person to beat. The PDP was also the party to beat. It has also been recorded that President Jonathan was the only candidate, amongst the Presidential candidates, that traversed the length and breadth of the country, campaigning, and begging for votes and asking the people to vote for him. While he was doing this, and campaigning vigorously, the other candidates were still arguing amongst themselves and having problems putting their structures in place and arguing about aligning or mergers or not. Not to also mention the facebook phenomenon or tactics or strategy, which President Obama also applied and utilised effectively in the US elections, especially in this modern day of Information and Communication Technology (ICT). President Jonathan, like Obama, before him, used ICT to communicate and connect with the people. In all, he fought a good fight and he deserved to win, and to win by an overwhelming margin.
One can, therefore, see why President Jonathan amassed all the votes he amassed in the South-East and the South-South, both being his enclave. If there were irregularities in those areas, it is for those alleging so to prove it. And it is for them to prove this with concrete facts and hard evidence, and not by simply conjecturing and knocking the truth on its head, pretending and claiming that it is unnatural. People must look at all the facts and ask whether it is possible, given the weaknesses and the non-existent party structures of the other Political parties in both zones, that they can lose this woefully? They must look at what structures the other parties had in place or on the ground in those areas or zones, and whether they even campaigned in the areas.
General Buhari’s strategy was to unintelligently concentrate his campaign in the North, a zone that he already knew he had strong support, but ignored the rest of the zones, where he had little or no support. Where is the strategy in that? Shouldn’t he have camped in the South-East and the South-South and constantly hammering his programs at the people, day and night, and trying to convince them why he was the best alternative, and why they must not vote for their man and their son, brother and kinsman? A good strategist would have done this!
To those shouting and yapping that the votes from the South-South and the South-East must be recounted, albeit, by Forensic experts and through forensic methods, I have this to say to them. The elections have been expensive, already as it is, and any further expenses, must be borne by the party that is alleging fraud and clamouring for a re-count, either through forensic counts or otherwise. Let those clamouring for a forensic count put their monies where their mouths are and guarantee that they will bear the cost of the recount, if in the end, there was nothing wrong with the elections and the votes in the South-East and the South-South were validly cast. And if in the end, it turns out that the reason why they did not gather as much votes was because they did not strategize well or campaign well and they did not do well enough. The money for the recount and forensic tests can be put to better use and yield the people the much needed dividends of democracy. I rest!
Osi Okponobi
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