I want to offer a profound condolence to all those affected by the violent reaction that trailed the outcome of the 2011 controversial presidential election. Although there were justified reasons for sadness and even anger, that is not an excuse for the violence and mayhem visited on the innocent. As Buhari rightly said, “the violence was worse than the rigging” that purportedly caused it.
I want to offer a profound condolence to all those affected by the violent reaction that trailed the outcome of the 2011 controversial presidential election. Although there were justified reasons for sadness and even anger, that is not an excuse for the violence and mayhem visited on the innocent. As Buhari rightly said, “the violence was worse than the rigging” that purportedly caused it.
Although there were reported cases of torture and official intimidation but in comparison, the Egyptians and Tunisians won battles against their sit-tight rulers without throwing even a stone. Friends of mine on Facebook would appreciate my position that in Nigeria this is impossible; a mere pipe dream.
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The political leadership, which benefits from our sharp divisions and differences, would sharpen it even more to ensure just that: a people divided.
In between, the dregs of society suffer by not taking sides with themselves but by fighting for the interest of their oppressors. Poor them! They kill themselves on the behalf of the political leadership that has reduced them to the position of serfs. They deserve the most sympathy.
Now onto the mirror of the 2011 elections. The first image one see is a fast movement back to pre-independence, when regionalism was at its height, as the basic political doctrine. Now, it's the subsisting philosophy, more in focus in the South.
Nuhu Ribadu, a Northerner, who was given the flag of ACN, a Southern based party, was taught a permanent lesson in regionalist politics, as he was deserted at the battle front by virtually all his commanders and his troops. He managed a win in only one state and constitutional votes in three others. He was a misnomer.
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Anyway, Ribadu, an intelligent personality, wasn't unaware of Nigeria's electoral history before he entered the contest, except if he was a plant, as some claim, which I don't subscribe to. As I said repeatedly in some published notes and on facebook, he was never on ground anywhere and so it is pointless to have had him as a plant.
For one to go from the police barracks, to EFCC and then straight to Aso Rock, without any tutelage, is considered, by many, including this writer, to be impossible in Nigerian politics. It raises many questions, such as what gave him the confidence to enter the race in the first place? How did he come by the resources to enter the expensive Nigerian presidential contest? Why did he relate and even allegedly collect contributions from those politicians he repeatedly described as thieves? Also the answers Ribadu gave during the presidential debate were not satisfactory to many.
For Buhari and Shekarau, Ribadu's miserable score in the South, was a good outing. None of them even scored the constitutional votes in any of the states in the region, a perfect repeat of what happened to Atiku in the PDP presidential primary election of Jan 13.
Unlike them, Jonathan not only 'led' in some parts of the North but secured the required constitutional votes in 15 of the 19 northern states plus FCT. Where can we locate regionalist tendencies in Nigerian politics? For an answer, ask Jega for the final figures.
The 2011 presidential election has drawn up a sharp dividing line in the polity of the country, destroying what has been achieved in the past and this started with the PDP primaries. How long it would take to reconstruct, remains a matter for conjecture. What is certain is that the conduct of PDP has done considerable damage to the polity on all fronts: the economy has been destroyed, corruption has been heightened, the little existing unity we possessed, shattered, and every other thing is in limbo. Surely, the party has dragged us into very bad days.
The North emerged to retain its tradition of liberal multipartism. Even in the North-West and North-East, where the CPC won, the PDP retained a strong hold, albeit controversially. In the Central-North, in fact, it led in votes, but as I keep saying, it was because of a swing zone and this has indeed proved so.
Considering some factors, the division in the North is not as clearcut as some may infer, or as the division between North and South. The CPC led in one of the six states in the M/Belt with constitutional votes in three others, granted votes were reflective of the pattern of voting. For this analysis, we assume they were.
There was a pinch of Organization in the trail of the election and it is worth a close study. It wasn't definite but obviously apparent.
On the whole, the fictional monolithic North died and in its place emerged a powerful monolithic South, with a strong bend towards regionalist politics. This has been the program since Obasanjo, who, incidentally, has now become the political king of Nigeria, pushing the Northern generals including Atiku, out of the field, or at least for now. Whether or not they will survive the next eight years of ‘Jonasanjo’ remains to be seen.
Whatever may be said, the CPC, emerged the new party that can stop Obasanjo's ceaseless drive towards a one party state, a project to which he has been dedicated. At a regional level, ACN also contributed towards this.
And this brings us to another point, the PDP, is generally becoming an Eastern party with powerful branches in the Central-North. The CPC has emerged as an enlarged PRP, while the ACN remains the grand child of AG, with a foot hold in Benue as during the Tarka era.
The left of centre forces have once more remained divided, except for when IBB forced them into one formation, in the 90s even though they could not hold on together.
One can safely concluded that irredentism would never allow the “progressives” enough strength to push the powerful conservative forces over a cliff. This has been the case since independence and would remain so for a long time. Their inability to lean on a national platform, partly as a result of the scheming of the conservatives, as we saw in the botched alliance talks between CPC and ACN, would remain to haunt them. To this extent, it could be safely said that the “progressives” have been partly responsible for their own Waterloo.
The 'defeat' of the Northern power blocks by Obasanjo and the incumbency machine, has proved that in Nigeria an incumbent can never be defeated in any electoral war so long as he remains on seat to deploy the machine, which comprises key instruments of federal power. As long as this persists, the PDP could rule for ever. It is untenable to say this election was not rigged when, right before we went to the polls, massive public resources were deployed in favor of incumbents. This is however a topic for another day.
Up country, the traditional institutions have been badly weakened on account that their active involvement in partisanship, some of which have been subtle but at time also glaring.
For some of them, they need to re- start rebuilding from the scratch. There is also the downfall of some political leaders leaving a wide vacuum for leadership in the region. Who would fill the void?
On the whole, the wider mirror of the 2011 presidential election was the emergence of a new electoral map, drawn with a thick regionalist pen, on an irredentist drawing paper, crafted at the PDP presidential primary election of January this year which was mounted on the epitaph of zoning. Now that the selfish politics of the PDP had killed it’s so called zoning, the party may have to go back to the drawing board because it may become a nemesis now and in 2015.
Tukur Mamu is the Publisher/Editor-In-Chief of DESERT HERALD newspaper. He is also the Consultant on African Media for Protection Rights of Journalists of Africa (PRJA), Cape Town, South Africa. He can be reach on [email protected]
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