Nigeria stands on the verge of being split in two as Boko Haram makes lightning territorial gains in the north-east of the country, the Nigeria Security Network (NSN) has warned in a special report, North-East Nigeria on the brink.
Nigeria stands on the verge of being split in two as Boko Haram makes lightning territorial gains in the north-east of the country, the Nigeria Security Network (NSN) has warned in a special report, North-East Nigeria on the brink.
The network of Nigerian and international experts, including former US Ambassador to Nigeria John Campbell, warns that Boko Haram is preparing to take over Borno’s state capital, Maiduguri, following an attack on Bama to the south-east.
“If Maiduguri falls, it will be a symbolic and strategic victory unparalleled so far in the conflict,” the group says.
A successful attack could be followed by a take over of the whole of Borno state and possibly parts of Adamawa, Yobe, and neighbouring Cameroon, the group says.
The report says, “Unless swift action is taken, Nigeria could be facing a rapid takeover of a large area of its territory reminiscent of ISIS’s lightning advances in Iraq.”
NSN calls on the Nigerian government to urgently reinforce Maiduguri to prevent it falling into enemy hands and re-gain control over Borno’s network of roads to stem the insurgency’s advance.
They warn that low morale and inadequate equipment in the army is causing soldiers to refuse to counter-attack and flee from battle.
The report states “Despite the bravery of individual soldiers on the ground and the best efforts of the Nigerian government and military to support them, the response to Boko Haram in recent days and weeks has been insufficient to halt the group’s dramatic advances...At this point in time, the Nigerian military does not appear to be in a position to stop Boko Haram.”
It also suggests that soldiers are sent into combat with only 60 rounds of ammunition to face Boko Haram fighters using heavy weapons and tanks, making it impossible for them to resist the insurgency’s advances.
The report calls on the international community to support Nigeria with non-lethal military assistance, including transportation to reinforce Maiduguri and reconnaissance. It also warns Cameroon to be ready to defend its territory.
It further warns that unless drastic action is taken, Nigeria could be facing not only a major loss of territory but a humanitarian catastrophe.
The report says that a Boko Haram takeover in Borno “would likely be accompanied by a major humanitarian crisis, involving the movement of possibly tens or even hundreds of thousands of internally displaced persons fleeing Boko Haram, and atrocities carried out against civilians who remain in captured areas. Attacks against government workers and others in Maiduguri are very likely should the capital fall.”
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The full report can be found here. For more information, contact NSN’s Coordinator, Andrew Noakes: [email protected].