The unprecedented venality of the Jonathan era and litany of monumental peculation has been revolting, particularly allegations of the missing $20bn from oil revenues, the subsidy fraud, and unhindered oil theft that averaged 300,000 barrels daily. All these leakages come with attendant effects on the economy, coupled with the fact that there has been no evident prosecution or convictions for these apparent financial crimes.
Excuses galore! A serious government doesn’t lament about the existent societal impediments and apparent issues that have unfortunately hampered our collective progress. A serious government being fully aware of the challenges it faces, proffers and effects realistic solutions to these problems.
As Nigeria adjusts to global economic realities, the shale alternative, and dwindling oil prices: generally, a world less dependent on oil and a post-oil economy realisation. Economically, can Nigeria really afford another 4 years of this administrative style?
Recently, Jim O'Niell, the former Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, and the economist who coined BRIC (Brazil, India, Russia, China) and MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey) respectively, highlighted the global perception of Nigeria, by stating the positive implications of Jonathan not getting re-elected in the forthcoming elections.
“If he doesn’t get re-elected, and it’s because of Nigerian people wanting something different and something better, I think the markets would be happy with that,”. “Foreign investors are pretty negative about Nigeria,so I don’t dismiss the possibility that if he lost people actually might react positively.”
Still expecting more from this regime?
The next few months are crucial to Nigeria's survival and economic subsistence. Nigeria is confronted with planning for the future, whilst dealing with the burdens of the past.
Some may argue that these problems weren’t created by the Jonathan administration, but, historically every new government inherits the problems of it's predecessor.
Regardless, does that give the current administration the right to exacerbate it ?
Introspectively, President Jonathan must accept, these societal problems have existed since he started his service in various capacities in government, from 1999. This was way before he became President. So these problems didn’t just happen!
Performance in governance shouldn’t be limited towards the election year, neither should it be about re-election! If energies and resources wasted on re-elections are concentrated on performance in governance, the electorate will easily demand the continuation of any performing administration - that is enough a selling point for any government.
Those with something to offer get on with it, but then again, is it possible to give what one does not possess? How possible is it, for a secondary school student to lecture an audience, largely comprising nuclear physicists, about pushing the boundaries of nuclear thermodynamics - it simply isn’t possible!
So if such antithetical feats are impossible, why do we expect effective leadership, acuminous management, and good governance from those without the capacity for such administrative delivery?
The administration of government shouldn’t be left to political opportunists or inadvertent rulers, but to those who have the capability and know-how.
Even those who had "anointed " Jonathan, didn't expect such an abysmal performance. Particularly, erstwhile President, Obasanjo, hasn’t spared his “chosen” or “selected ” one, with his missives and salvoes. He recently lamented how the gross reserves, including Foreign Reserves and Excess Crude Account of $67billion, left in 2007, has been recklessly depleted by the Jonathan administration.
Nigeria is confronted with dealing with the consequences of a fiscal policy failure by any standard, a grave economic situation with hundreds of billions of dollars wasted in recent years. Foreign Reserves depleted, Excess Crude Account shrunk! Dollar rising against Naira. Yet there's absolutely nothing to show for it!
The dwindling oil price is pivotal to the matter, following the peak of around $145 around 2008, and slump below $50 in 2009, the price maintained a $100-$120 average from 2010 until late 2014 - where it has been hovering around the $50 mark. Oil prices have slumped to a near 6 year low (2009), of below $50, and currently priced around $46.
Predictably the current oil price slump is affecting the budgets of the oil producing states. According to theIMF, Nigeria will require about $123 (per barrel) to balance it's budget.
A budget that was twice revised from $77.5 to $73, and then $65.
Meanwhile, the Gulf economies are using a budget benchmark of $60, and plan to continue spending on building the economy, particularly diversification, with the prospect of incurring deficits. These economies had contingency plans for such price fluctuations and are sticking to their economic blueprint. More importantly, oil is no longer the major source of income for some of the Gulf economies. In UAE, 71% of the total GDP comes from non-oil sectors.
Also, oil producing states that saved adequately, have their Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) as economic buffers. Nigeria's Sovereign Wealth Fund is about $1.4 billion, which is incomparable to other Sovereign Wealth Fund's, Norway ($893b), UAE ($773b), continentally: Algeria ($77.2b), a warring Libya ($66b), Angola ($5b) - started it's SWF in 2012, same year as Nigeria. Why Nigeria started in 2012 is a topic for another day
The unprecedented venality of the Jonathan era and litany of monumental peculation has been revolting, particularly allegations of the missing $20bn from oil revenues, the subsidy fraud, and unhindered oil theft that averaged 300,000 barrels daily. All these leakages come with attendant effects on the economy, coupled with the fact that there has been no evident prosecution or convictions for these apparent financial crimes.
Evidently, Nigeria's period of higher prices and price stability – an above benchmark average of $30 in excess, over a 3 year period - was a wasted opportunity to set the economy on the path of diversification, and an equally wasted opportunity for major infrastructural development.
Just imagine what could have been done with hundreds of billions of oil revenue dollars! We can only rue the missed opportunity, but it's not too late, we have an opportunity to prevent a continuum of such financial recklessness.
In about a month from now, Nigerians will be faced with 2 choices: Goodluck Jonathan (PDP) or Muhammadu Buhari (APC). With the former and current occupier, we have the epitome of ineptitude. Economically, it was the manifestation of financial recklessness and a wasted opportunity to take full advantage of the time of revenue surpluses. In this regard, now that Nigeria is confronted with harsh economic realities, it's only logical to deduce nothing innovative can be expected.
With the latter, Nigerians have an opportunity for change: to try things differently.
The issues at stake are actually quite clear: an extension of mediocrity or an opportunity for a change, ultimately rescuing Nigeria from further deterioration.
God Bless Nigeria!
The writer is M.B.O Owolowo. Email: [email protected]