The dreaded year has finally come upon us as a nation. The Back to the Future year 2015 in which the United States based on socio-political considerations predicted that Nigeria would finally splinter as a country. In 2005 a leaked report compiled by the US National Intelligence Council (NIC) made this prediction based on a 10 year study done between 1994-2004 on about 10 different countries considered future “basket cases” in terms of political instability in those countries and the likely threat to US national and indeed global security those countries may pose in the future.
Countries like Sudan, Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan and indeed Nigeria were grouped into that ‘basket case’ studies, with CIA field agents deployed in large numbers into those specific countries over a 10 year period to gather data for the studies.
They concluded with a fair bit of certainty that Nigeria would break-up on or before 2015. We have survived the before 2015 part, its now in our hands to survive the on part of the prediction. If we get through 2015 and possibly many more years then we would have rendered the American predictions worthless (though they have denied making such predictions), but in other to do so we have to give ourselves every fighting chance possible as we approach the February 2015 elections so as not to lay the foundation of bringing it to pass regardless of whether it happens in 2015 or in a few years’ time.
One of the ingredients of the possibility of such predictions coming to pass is the near hero like status former insurgents like Government Ekpemupolo aka Tompolo having been enjoying under this present administration led by President Goodluck Jonathan. Tompolo has seen a tremendous rise from being a militant insurgent hiding away in the Delta creeks from government forces, to initially an insurgent granted amnesty, but now a multi-billionaire enjoying state patronage and allegedly engaged in illegal bunkering that is amassing him so much unbelievable wealth he can afford to buy a warship. His acquisition of a warship story in 2012 on behalf of NIMASA should not have been swept under the carpet. Under the guise of the NIMASA Act 2007, Tompolo’s Global West Vessel Services has been able to acquire seven warships and fast attack crafts in a contract given him to counter oil bunkering and maintain maritime security which evidently from the increased rate of oil theft should have seen such contract reviewed and surely terminated for lack of performance.
Also the NIMASA Act 2007 should be reviewed by the National Assembly immediately and its function of providing Air and Coastal surveillance as well as carrying out Search and Rescue operations be given to a National Coast Guard crew formed out of the Nigerian Navy with autonomy from the navy to provide such paramilitary tasks on behalf of the nation, rather than the present arrangement we have under President Jonathan that encourages succession especially when placed in the hands of former warlords and secessionists like ‘General’ Tompolo. Already there have been instances where NIMASA operatives wrongly opened fire on the Navy thinking they were pirates. But the main danger ahead of us is the February 2015 elections, which should Jonathan most likely lose to Muhammadu Buhari would see Tompolo definitely going to war again with Nigeria in 2015.
Follow the antecedents and history of the young man Tompolo, and you would know there is a sure possibility in 2015 of him going to war should President Jonathan lose his re-election bid, considering his staunch defence of his Ijaw kinsmen over the years and his battle for ethnic Ijaw dominance. Tompolo first came to prominence in 1997 when he quit his well paying contractor job with oil giant Chevron supplying them diesel for their operations in Escravos, and funded as well as fought for his Ijaw tribesmen forming a militia called the Federated Niger Delta Ijaw Communities (FNDIC) which fought a bloody campaign for five years against the Itsekiris whose militias were called the Deadly Underdogs on the streets of Warri. Tompolo’s grouse was that the headquarters of Warri South LGA was located in an Itsekiri community unlike in Warri North which is located in Koko. Thus for five years without any apparent facts to prove that locating the headquarter of a LGA in one area would bring more development to that area over the rest of the LGA, he quit his day job and funnelled all his resources into purchasing arms and ammunitions to kill just to get ethnic Ijaw dominance over his nearby Itsekiri neighbours.
It ended in 2002, with him establishing himself as the muscle or enforcer behind the Ijaw dominance of government and oil contracts in Delta state and across the Niger Delta for many years. Roll on 12 years later in 2014, he was still at it again when he insisted and protested that the proposed Gas city to be built in Warri and named Ogidigben after an Itsekiri town must have an Ijaw name in it and not just that the Ijaw name in it must precede that of the Itsekiris. Its common knowledge that Jonathan could not go to the ground laying ceremony of the project due to the protest of his fellow kinsman.
His history also runs into the insurgency that gripped the Niger-Delta particularly from 2005 after the arrest of Asari Dokubo the forebear to the ‘criminal’ shout for resource control and true federalism. For people like Dokubo it was a chance for them to get their hands on the resources mined from their backyard by any means possible and so he went against the state. After his arrest five commanders came together and started MEND with Tompolo leading the famous Camp Five that gave the Military JTF lots of headaches. But for the likes of Tompolo unlike Dokubo, he is not fighting for just a chance to get his hands at resources but rather for ethnic chauvinism and domination of the Ijaws. At a point it became obvious that the Jomo Gbomo voice was mostly used by Tompolo’s Camp five judging by the speed with which they released pictures of captives to international media. At a time when late President Yar’Adua was meeting with his then Vice-President Goodluck Jonathan as well as the service chiefs to find a solution to the insurgency in the creeks, MEND under Tompolo had this to say: “We are not against any meeting we have no control over. For us, the bottomline is for Nigeria to practise true federalism. If the meeting with Yar’Adua discusses it, then, that is fine. If they don’t address the root causes that gave birth to our movement, then, the crisis will remain,” MEND said. They would go on to accept Yar’adua’s amnesty offer and have since gone quiet the moment Jonathan became president as that is the main reason for all the fight in the first place - ethnic Ijaw domination.
Thus for anyone to believe he would not go back to war in 2015 should Jonathan lose such a person would be fantasist. He has had the better part of six years to prepare hiding under the guise of NIMASA to buy warships and possibly if they could jet-fighters but that would need a lot of cover to acquire. Tompolo according to former JTF Niger Delta commander Major-General Yarkin-Bello is a highly organised person who plans well for whatever he does and can be underrated judging from his unassuming and quiet personality. When his home in Oporoza was attacked by the JTF in 2009 just before he gave up to the amnesty deal, it showed a meticulous planner. He had a communications room in the 20 bedroom mansion stocked with internet and satellite communications gear he used in keeping in touch with the world. He had different photographs of jet-fighters downloaded from the internet, brochures from Jane’s defence weekly (a defence and intelligence journal), copies of different national newspapers and stories downloaded from online newspapers and media sites. It showed a man with vast knowledge and keen attention to what is happening around him and not just some empty or crazy lunatic who loves to fight. It clearly shows he is a man driven by some kind of ideology and inner demons and from his antecedents judging from the Itsekiri/Ijaw war in Warri in 1997-2002 and his recent confrontations with the Itsekiris again in December of last year, Tompolo is a man driven by an inner demon to fight for ethnic dominance for his Ijaw people whether in the Niger Delta or on the National sphere.
I’m saying all these not because I want to write about Tompolo, but because as the peoples revolution to install Buhari as president in 2015 gets clearer now Jonathan is haemorrhaging support in traditional PDP areas like the South East, he needs to be aware of where the next conflagration of crises would come from in Nigeria. The Boko Haram issue took many unawares as to the dimension it escalated too, we shouldn’t allow Tompolo’s war in 2015 break us up as his would be costlier. Buhari before the elections and immediately after it should he win, must begin to give his presidency a touch of national belonging. He should do away with sentiments and be more careful with the ‘Lagos crowd’ suffocating him each time he wants to make any decisions concerning his campaign or likely future government. Its one thing for people to want to help, its another for them to be suffocating and want to take him hostage. The Buhari project must be seen to be national and involve as many nationalities in the country as possible even right from his campaign and not given an idea of North/South-West team up colouration some people seek to give it for their own political masculinity, as victory for Buhari is not going to come from there but instead from the Nigerian people. If he leaves out other nationalities including the minorities, it would make it easier for ethnic chauvinists like Tompolo to recruit fighters under the guise of fighting for the resources of the people of the Niger Delta, making it difficult for the people to listen to voices of the likes of Rotimi Amaechi or Adams Oshiomhole as they don’t see themselves as part of the project. I have written in the past that Buhari must tread cautiously and it has to begin from his campaign all the way to a likely presidency should he win God helping, he must do away with the suffocating ‘Lagos crowd’ being pushed on him by a supposed National leader who is more concerned about his own political masculinity and pecuniary gains than helping move the nation forward at this critical junction. When Buhari includes every ethnic nationalities as possible in his campaign team and future presidency, the likes of Tompolo and any other bitter politician that would sponsor him then can be isolated and easily dealt with as they would clearly be seen as fighting for their own pockets and in Tompolo’s case ethnic Ijaw domination once his man Goodluck Jonathan loses the election.
That would be the easiest way to solve and counter the likely new war front ‘General’ Tompolo would open in the Delta creeks in 2015. Should Jonathan lose the elections next month would Tompolo go to war again? Yes he will, he’s been preparing for it for years.
Ola’ Idowu is a Management consultant and Researcher writes in from the UK. [email protected]